Analysis: If ETH breaks through the key neckline, it is expected to rebound to the $2,500 range

Despite ETH's cumulative decline of about 20%, which once dipped below the psychological level of $2,000, on-chain data and derivative structures indicate that the market is brewing a potential rebound.

On-chain data shows that over 2.5 million ETH flowed into long-term holding addresses in February, with the holdings of related addresses increasing from 22 million to 26.7 million since 2026. At the same time, approximately 37.22 million ETH (accounting for over 30% of the circulating supply) is currently staked, leading to a continuous contraction of the circulating supply. The network's fundamentals have also significantly improved, with weekly transaction counts reaching a historical high of 17.3 million, and the median Gas fee dropping to $0.008, a decrease of about 3,000 times from the peak in 2021. On the technical front, ETH's 4-hour chart may be forming an "Adam and Eve bottom" reversal pattern. If the price effectively breaks through the neckline at $2,150, the theoretical target range points to $2,473–$2,634. If it loses the recent high-low structure, $1,909 will be a key short-term liquidity level.

In terms of derivatives, the open interest in ETH has decreased to $11.2 billion, significantly down from the cycle high of $30 billion in August 2025, but the estimated leverage ratio remains at a relatively high level of 0.7. Data shows that about 73% of accounts are in a long position; the liquidation heatmap indicates that there is over $2 billion in short liquidation pressure above $2,200, while the liquidation scale for long positions near $1,800 is about $1 billion, suggesting a relatively higher risk of short squeezes above. Analysts believe that if ETH can achieve an effective breakout above $2,150, it may open up upward space in the short term, targeting the $2,500 level.