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The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 90.2%

Feb 16, 2026 06:03:43

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According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 90.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 9.8%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 26.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 71.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 2%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 51.8%.

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