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Analysis: Bitcoin is approaching the four-year SMA support level and may be in the final stage of a bear market

Feb 15, 2026 23:54:59

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According to market news, the analysis model released by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost shows that the indicator based on the four-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Bitcoin has entered the bear market level range.

This indicator measures the valuation status of Bitcoin through standard deviation and SMA multiples: the higher the multiple, the deeper the overbought level, and the closer the price is to the four-year SMA, the lower the valuation. The current Bitcoin price has fallen back to the green zone and is close to the four-year SMA level, which is currently around $57,500. Historically, this level usually marks the final stage of each bear market, with BTC prices often consolidating in this area for several months. Darkfost stated that he usually does not prefer models based on moving averages, but believes that this indicator is worth paying attention to.

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