10x Research Founder: Wall Street Ends Bitcoin Surge, Year-End Target Price $90,000

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated in the Cointelegraph podcast Trade Secrets that the days of Bitcoin experiencing double-digit gains consecutively are over, as Wall Street traders and profit-taking whales are reshaping the market structure. He believes that institutional traders are selling call options after price increases, making the extreme price surges of earlier years less common. Thielen, who is also the author of the industry historical work Crypto Titans, found in his writing that each cycle has different drivers, and different drivers attract different investors. The current drivers are from Wall Street, with investors trading based on economic data and Federal Reserve decisions.

Thielen estimates that among the $60 billion in net inflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs he analyzed, market makers could account for as much as half. These institutions hold ETF shares to hedge options trading, so they do not necessarily represent a bet on Bitcoin's price increase. His estimate is based on a review of the SEC's 13F filings. He still expects Bitcoin to reach $90,000 by the end of the year, but it may first drop to a range of $76,000 to $79,000. Bitcoin fell to about $76,100 last Friday after a $6.3 billion hacking incident on Binance, with a cumulative drop of 7.3% in October.

Thielen expects Bitcoin to outperform Ethereum, believing that too much value generated by Ethereum's ecosystem is flowing to Layer 2 networks. He has been bearish on Ethereum for over a year, comparing it to a highway: everyone wants the road to be clear and tidy for fast travel, but no one wants to pay for it. He cited the decentralized perpetual contract exchange Hyperliquid as an example, pointing out that its aid fund converts trading fees into HYPE and destroys them, suggesting that Ethereum needs to establish a stronger connection between network usage and financial benefits for holders.