The founder with experience from top-tier VC has a leading investment probability of approximately 2.83 times

Menlo Ventures partner Deedy Das utilized Harmonic data to analyze 8,525 U.S. startups founded between 2019 and 2026, examining 63 founder background characteristics to compare which individuals are more likely to receive lead investment from top venture capital firms in seed or Series A rounds.

The results showed that founders with experience at top VC firms had a 2.83 times higher chance of securing lead investment compared to others with similar conditions, ranking first. Founders who had worked in cutting-edge AI laboratories and those with backgrounds in the cybersecurity industry had chances of 2.16 times and 2.03 times, respectively. A background from top universities provided a 1.41 times chance, while former Google employees had a 1.29 times chance. Former VC employees include not only investors but also resident entrepreneurs, researchers, and interns, some of whom incubated projects within the fund.

The study also listed several negatively correlated factors. Founders with an MBA degree had a lead investment chance ratio of 0.65; being educated in China had a ratio of 0.59; and if the oldest founder in the team was over 50 years old, the ratio was 0.57.