White Whale Labs: The advantages of Solana meme coins are concentrated in cluster wallets

White Whale Labs released a study titled "The Audit Of The Memecoin Casino," stating that since late August, it has recorded all Pump.fun and Stonk new coin transactions on Solana, covering over 1 million liquidity pools and 7.7 million wallets with 384 million exchanges, with data exceeding 56 GB and 820 million rows. This dataset adds 18 to 25 million transactions daily, with up to about 1 million wallets and over 60,000 newly issued projects.

The study claims that among the coins that have had real transactions, about one-tenth will double within the following 24 hours. Among 22.8 million first purchases within two weeks, 17% doubled before a 40% drop; using a doubling take-profit and a 40% drop stop-loss while accounting for costs, the average loss per transaction is about 19%. Clusters consisting of 450 to 2000 wallets often concentrate their purchases within one to two minutes after going live, with the doubling ratio for related coins being 28% to 46%, and their entry doubling before a 40% drop is 50% to 60%, higher than the 17% of other wallets. The daily count of groups tracked is between 9 and 33.

Copy trading tests show that entering two minutes behind large clusters results in a single coin loss of 41% for 93 coins, with a median drop of 95%; tracking groups with positive records still shows a single coin loss of 11%, and backtesting a single wallet shows a single transaction loss of 20%. A few tight-knit groups made about 10% profit on 16 coins. Neural networks increased the doubling ratio from about 10% to 26%, but out of 771 selections over 8 days, daily results were negative, with an average loss of about 11%, a median drop of 45%, and 55% triggering stop-loss within 24 hours. White Whale Labs stated that after spending thousands of dollars on API, VPS, and model costs, no monetizable advantage was found, and they believe that meme coin trading is almost entirely driven by cluster wallets.