CryptoQuant: The proportion of new Bitcoin whales in the realized market value has risen to about 1/3, with a cost basis of approximately $77,000

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ published an analysis indicating that the realized market cap of new whales is $78.61 billion, while that of old whales is $159.15 billion. New whales account for 33.06%, compared to about 18% earlier in 2026. Since September, the realized market cap of new whales has continued to grow, while that of old whales has remained relatively stable, with growth mainly coming from new whales. The realized market cap is calculated based on the price at the last on-chain transfer of the token and does not represent the proportion of BTC supply.

In terms of cost, the overall cost basis of new whales has decreased from a previous peak of about $110,000 to around $68,000 at the end of August, and then rebounded to about $77,000. The current BTC price is $82,134, which is about 6.7% higher than the cost basis of new whales. Analysts believe that the data shows that large holders bought during the decline and continued to accumulate as prices rebounded. However, the turnover of the holder group and transfers between addresses can also drive up the realized market cap, so the growth in realized market cap cannot be seen as equivalent to new capital inflow. If BTC continues to fall below around $77,000, new whales will incur losses again, increasing the likelihood of selling during a rebound. Exchange inflows and realized losses can be used to determine whether this is short-term pressure or if large holders are starting to sell off again.