Bitget UEX Daily Report | Disagreements remain in US-Iran negotiations, but ceasefire expectations boost US stocks; Google releases cache compression technology impacting the storage sector (March 26, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

No significant monetary policy adjustments, focus shifts to geopolitical risks

• White House Press Secretary Levitt revealed that the U.S. and Iran have had "productive contacts" over the past three days. Trump instructed the Department of Defense to postpone strikes on Iran's electricity and energy infrastructure but emphasized that stronger measures would be taken if Iran refuses to accept reality.
• The core of the negotiations still revolves around uranium control, with an action timeline expected in four to six weeks, and no formal authorization from Congress is required; meanwhile, Israel continues to strike Iranian military targets, with no signs of reduction in actions. Market impact: Although the ceasefire expectations have temporarily eased risk premiums, military tensions have not substantially eased, coupled with the U.S. military's troop increase in the Middle East, oil prices and inflation uncertainties may still limit the Federal Reserve's future policy space.

International Commodities

Transport through the Strait of Hormuz obstructed, Saudi Arabia accelerates red sea export diversion

• Since the strait has been largely stalled since the end of February, Saudi Arabia has doubled its crude oil export volume from the Dammam port within two weeks, with an average daily shipment of 4.4 million barrels this week, approaching the target of 5 million barrels.
• COSCO has resumed booking for Gulf countries, but vessels are temporarily not passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Market impact: The rapid reshaping of the supply chain has temporarily alleviated global crude oil shortage concerns, but it highlights the vulnerability of energy logistics to geopolitical conflicts, and oil price trends remain highly dependent on negotiation progress.

Macroeconomic Policy

Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer optimistic about S&P earnings growth

• Mike Wilson expects S&P 500 constituent earnings to grow by 20% over the next 12 months, a growth rate historically only seen during periods of economic recovery from recession.
• First-quarter earnings expectations have been raised to 11.9%, but JPMorgan warns that if oil prices remain at $110 per barrel, earnings may face a risk of downward revision by 5 percentage points. Market impact: The upward revision of earnings expectations supports the resilience of U.S. stock valuations, and the upcoming earnings season will be a key verification window, with geopolitics and oil prices remaining major disruptive factors.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Up about 0.72%, latest at $4,539 per ounce.
• Spot Silver: Up about 0.66%, latest at $71.73 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Up about 1.13%, latest at $91.37 per barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil: Up about 1.13%, latest at $103 per barrel.
• U.S. Dollar Index: Slightly up 0.01%, latest at 99.637, with risk appetite warming under geopolitical easing signals, the dollar lacks a unilateral direction in the short term, but inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's policy path still provide some support.

Core Drivers: The market quickly trades on the "temporary easing of geopolitical risks" theme, leading to a significant drop in energy prices, while alleviating previous concerns about stagflation caused by high oil prices; precious metals saw a strong rally in the last trading session after losing some safe-haven support in the short term. Institutions generally believe that the long-term bull market foundation for gold (central bank purchases, long-term geopolitical uncertainty, etc.) remains unchanged, recommending accumulation on dips; crude oil faces short-term adjustment pressure, but if U.S.-Iran negotiations fail to reach a substantial agreement, the energy logic will still fluctuate. Investors need to continuously monitor the latest developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, the G7 foreign ministers' meeting, and subsequent EIA crude oil inventory data for price guidance.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Up 0.68% in 24H, reported at $71,176, rebounding for two consecutive days, driven by geopolitical easing and short-term short covering.
• ETH: Up 0.28% in 24H, reported at $2,165, showing relatively stable performance, supported by overall warming risk appetite.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Up about 0.5% in 24H, total market cap around $2.52 trillion, with BTC dominance gradually restoring market sentiment.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of $157 million in 24H, with long positions liquidated at $54 million and short positions at $103 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around 71,195, with a significant reduction in the liquidation area for long positions below, while a large concentration of high-leverage short liquidation remains in the 71,800--73,000 range, making it easier to trigger upward squeezes in the short term. The overall structure shows upper liquidity is significantly stronger than lower support, and if prices continue to oscillate, they are likely to test the upper liquidation dense area first.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $78.5 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of $23.8 million yesterday.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Inflow of $2.029 billion yesterday, outflow of $2.004 billion, net inflow of $25 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 0.66%, reported at 46,429.49 points, closing up for two consecutive days.
• S&P 500: Up 0.54%, reported at 6,591.9 points, with balanced contributions from defensive and growth sectors.
• Nasdaq: Up 0.77%, reported at 21,929.83 points, significantly driven by technology and aerospace concepts.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): Up 0.39%, reported at $252.62, with consumer electronics demand remaining robust, benefiting from overall warming risk appetite.
• Amazon (AMZN): Up 2.16%, reported at $211.71, with stable growth in e-commerce and AWS cloud services synergizing.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Up 1.99%, reported at $178.68, with strong demand for AI computing power, market confidence in AI themes remains solid.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 0.46%, reported at $371.04, with short-term profit-taking pressure emerging.
• Google (GOOG): Up 0.17%, reported at $290.93, with the release of new memory optimization algorithms triggering a chain reaction in the storage industry.
• Meta (META): Up 0.33%, reported at $594.89, with social platform and advertising business performing steadily.
• Tesla (TSLA): Up 0.76%, reported at $385.95, with the electric vehicle sector following the overall market's warming risk appetite.

Core Reason: Ceasefire expectations significantly boosted market risk appetite, driving growth stocks overall stronger; Google's memory optimization technology temporarily suppressed the storage sector, but the long-term logic of AI themes still attracts capital, leading to a certain degree of differentiated rotation in the market.

Sector Movement Observation

Commercial Aerospace Sector up over 10%

• Representative stocks: Rocket Lab (RKLB) up over 10%, Planet Labs (PL) up over 10%.
• Driving factors: Rumors of SpaceX soon submitting an IPO prospectus, coupled with Intuitive Machines receiving a $180 million commercial lunar payload order from NASA, accelerating the commercialization process of commercial aerospace, leading to capital inflow into related stocks.

CPU Concept Sector up over 7%

• Representative stocks: Intel (INTC) up over 7%, AMD up over 7%, Arm Holdings (ARM) up 16.38%.
• Driving factors: AI demand leading to tight CPU supply, Intel and AMD plan to raise prices.

Storage Concept Sector significantly down

• Representative stocks: Micron (MU), Western Digital (WDC), SanDisk (SNDK) down 3%-5.7%.
• Driving factors: Google's release of algorithms like TurboQuant significantly reduces memory usage for LLMs and vector search engines, raising market concerns about long-term demand for storage chips.

Gold Mining Sector up over 3%

• Representative stocks: Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) up 4.68%, Kinross Gold (KGC) up over 3%.
• Driving factors: Precious metal prices rebounding, with geopolitical risk aversion providing support.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Google (GOOG) - TurboQuant and other algorithms reduce AI memory usage

Event Overview: Google released a series of new algorithms, including TurboQuant and PolarQuant, aimed at significantly compressing the memory requirements of large language models (LLMs) and vector search engines, while also launching the Lyria 3 Pro music generation model, which can generate a complete 3-minute song in one go and embed a SynthID watermark. Although this technological advancement enhances AI operational efficiency, it raises market concerns about the long-term demand for storage chips, leading to collective pressure on the stock prices of the storage industry chain.
Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe that short-term memory optimization may weaken the demand pull for DRAM, HBM, and hard disk products, especially impacting companies like Micron and Western Digital; however, in the medium to long term, the efficiency improvements in AI are expected to expand the overall computing power deployment scale, and hyperscaler spending will remain high, just with structural changes in the technological path. Some analysts point out that this reflects early signals of AI transitioning from "training-oriented" to "inference optimization."
Investment Insight: The storage sector's valuations face short-term adjustment pressure, and investors are advised to distinguish between short-term technical shocks and long-term AI demand trends, focusing on tracking the effectiveness of Google's subsequent algorithm implementations and hyperscalers' actual memory procurement plans.

2. Micron (MU) / Western Digital (WDC) - Google's memory optimization technology triggers sector adjustment

Event Overview: Influenced by Google's TurboQuant and other compression algorithms, Micron fell about 3%, Western Digital fell about 4.7%, and other storage stocks also declined. The market is concerned that if AI models significantly reduce their reliance on memory, it will weaken the strong demand previously formed due to the explosion of AI data centers.
Market Interpretation: Analysts point out that although AI memory is currently still in short supply (high bandwidth memory supply tightness is expected to continue until 2026-2028), the self-developed optimization technologies by giants like Google may accelerate the "memory efficiency revolution," reshaping the supply chain landscape. Institutions remind that short-term bearishness mainly comes from emotional transmission rather than a disappearance of demand.
Investment Insight: In the short term, it is advisable to be cautious about fluctuations in the storage sector, while looking for rebound opportunities after technological validation, and diversifying allocations to other segments of the AI industry chain.

3. Rocket Lab (RKLB) / Planet Labs (PL) / Intuitive Machines (LUNR) - Commercial aerospace sector collectively surges

Event Overview: Under the stimulus of rumors that SpaceX is about to submit an IPO prospectus, both Rocket Lab and Planet Labs surged over 10%, while Intuitive Machines soared 14.68% due to receiving a $180 million commercial lunar payload task order from NASA. Rocket Lab is backed by a record order backlog (including an $816 million Space Development Agency contract), significantly heating up the overall commercial aerospace sector.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that the expected SpaceX IPO will drive a reevaluation of the entire commercial aerospace ecosystem's valuations, with Rocket Lab as a strong competitor in the small to medium-sized launch vehicle space, Planet Labs leveraging its Earth observation satellite network, and Intuitive Machines relying on lunar infrastructure, all likely to benefit. Analysts have raised growth expectations for related companies, emphasizing dual drives from defense and commercial sectors.
Investment Insight: The commercial aerospace sector's prosperity is expected to continue, and it is recommended to focus on companies with real orders and technological barriers, while being cautious of volatility risks after rumors materialize.

4. Intel (INTC) / AMD - CPU supply tightness drives up prices and stock prices

Event Overview: Continued AI demand is diverting capacity, leading to increased CPU supply tightness for Intel and AMD, with PC and server manufacturers facing shortages. Intel and AMD plan to raise prices across their entire CPU range starting from March-April, with related stock prices both rising over 7% on Wednesday, while Arm surged 16.38% the previous day due to its self-developed AGI CPU outlook.
Market Interpretation: Multiple institutions point out that the CPU shortage, combined with the previous memory crisis, has already led to a 10-15% increase in PC prices, and AI prioritization strategies are reshaping the semiconductor supply chain. Intel and AMD's bargaining power is increasing, but they also face pressures for capacity expansion and competition from Arm architecture.
Investment Insight: The CPU sector's short-term prosperity has been validated, and it is advisable to focus on the actual improvement in gross margins from price transmission, while tracking the long-term impact of AI chip capacity expansion on traditional CPU supply.

5. Circle (CRCL) - Stock price hits largest single-day drop since listing

Event Overview: Circle (CRCL) stock price plummeted 20.11%, marking the largest single-day drop since its listing, hitting a low of around $101 during the session, and ultimately closing at $101.17; it rebounded slightly by 2.66% yesterday, closing at $103.86. The core trigger was the U.S. Clarity Act legislative proposal tightening beyond expectations, with market rumors suggesting that the latest compromise version from Congress may explicitly prohibit stablecoin platforms from paying any form of yield, interest, or rewards to holders (yield ban), directly impacting USDC's interest income model from reserve investments in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. If the ban is passed, it will significantly reduce USDC's attractiveness and decrease trading volume and reserve scale. Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett first disclosed the details of the proposal, leading to a rapid pricing of bearish sentiment and quick capital outflows. Secondary factors include valuation and profit-taking pressure from nearly a tenfold increase since the IPO, expectations of Fed rate cuts compressing future interest space, and dynamics from competitors like Tether and overall regulatory uncertainty amplifying emotional volatility.
Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe that this sharp drop is mainly driven by emotion and is oversold; there may still be volatility in the short term, but in the long term, USDC's actual circulation and on-chain usage are still growing (significantly ahead of competitors by 2026). If the final bill is milder than the draft (there are already voices in the market suggesting "less draconian than feared"), the stock price is expected to recover quickly.
Investment Insight: It is advisable to remain cautious in the short term, paying attention to subsequent congressional hearings and the final text of the bill; in the long term, consider accumulating Circle's growth potential in payment, tokenization, and cross-border settlement fields on dips.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Asset management firm Franklin Templeton collaborates with Ondo Finance to launch a tokenized version of an ETF that can be traded 24 hours in crypto wallets, bypassing traditional brokerage accounts and limited trading hours.
2. As the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) prepares to launch a tokenized asset innovation exemption plan, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee held a hearing on March 25 titled "The Future of Tokenization and Securities: Modernizing Capital Markets." SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that the agency will soon seek public input on a series of issues related to future rule-making, including a proposed innovation exemption that could serve as a regulatory sandbox for on-chain assets.
3. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF could launch at any time. The New York Stock Exchange has officially announced the listing arrangements for the fund, which typically indicates that the listing is imminent. Morgan Stanley submitted its application in January and filed a revised S-1 registration statement last week, confirming that the ETF will be listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker MSBT.
4. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, after a month of silence, a whale withdrew 11,999 ETH (worth $26 million) from Coinbase and used it for staking.
5. After a compromise was reached on the stablecoin yield clause in the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill CLARITY Act, reactions from the crypto industry have been mixed. Insiders revealed that Coinbase expressed dissatisfaction with the latest compromise plan but has not publicly opposed it. The proposal was presented to the crypto industry on Monday and to the banking industry on Tuesday, with some stakeholders feeling "surprised," while others like Coinbase expressed dissatisfaction, believing the proposal could create unforeseen obstacles for stablecoin-related products and services.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

March 26 (Thursday)

1. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (20:30), a high-frequency indicator of the labor market;
2. Speeches from several Fed officials (Jefferson, Barr, etc.), verifying recent policy paths and inflation responses;
3. G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting (26-27), focusing on statements regarding the Middle East/Strait of Hormuz/energy supply.

March 27 (Friday)

1. Release of the final value of the March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, focusing on the impact of geopolitics & oil prices on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

In addition, continue to monitor the follow-up on U.S.-Iran negotiations: Keep an eye on the latest statements from the White House and Iran; any substantial progress or reversals may significantly impact oil prices and global risk assets.

Institutional Views:

Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson maintains an optimistic forecast of 20% earnings growth for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, believing that the current trend of upward earnings revisions is highly consistent with historical recovery phases following recessions. Although there are still discrepancies in U.S.-Iran negotiations and military actions have not seen a reduction, signals of "productive contact" regarding the ceasefire have driven U.S. stocks to rebound for two consecutive days, and the drop in oil prices further alleviates inflationary pressures. First-quarter earnings expectations have been raised to 11.9%, and the earnings season starting in three weeks will be an important testing point. In the cryptocurrency market, BTC remains stable at $71,000, driving total market cap recovery, with short liquidations primarily indicating a repair of leveraged sentiment; however, the continuous outflow of BTC/ETH spot ETFs reminds investors to pay attention to institutional capital movements. Overall, institutions believe that the temporary easing of geopolitical risks combined with earnings growth expectations will continue to support risk assets, but if negotiations falter and oil prices return above $110, both earnings and valuations face downward revision risks. Investors are advised to closely track U.S. employment data, the latest developments in the Middle East, and the actual performance of the earnings season, seizing structural opportunities in AI, aerospace, CPU, etc., amidst volatility.
Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice.