Bitget UEX Daily Report｜US-Iran negotiations nearing agreement; Robinhood plans to buy back $1.5 billion in stock; Pinduoduo to announce financial report today (March 25, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

No significant new developments, market focuses on the impact of geopolitical signals on policy path

• The Federal Reserve currently maintains its previous interest rate stance, and the market is closely tracking the potential impact of Middle East negotiations on inflation expectations.
• The background is that there are signs of easing in the Middle East situation, and fluctuations in energy prices may change interest rate cut expectations.
• Market impact: If negotiations make substantial progress, easing energy cost pressures may provide the Federal Reserve with more flexibility, benefiting risk asset pricing in the short term.

International Commodities

US-Iran negotiations signal a ceasefire, Thai tanker successfully passes through the Strait of Hormuz

• Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations "may be quite close to reaching an agreement," with the US proposing a ceasefire plan that includes 15 items and intends to implement a one-month ceasefire; Iran agrees not to develop nuclear weapons.
• The Thai Foreign Minister confirmed that, after coordination among Iran, Thailand, and Oman, a Thai tanker has safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz and is expected to arrive in Thailand in early April, seen as a positive signal.
• Market impact: The risk of energy supply disruptions has significantly decreased, oil prices are under short-term pressure, but the long-term geopolitical logic still exists, benefiting global supply chain stability.

Macroeconomic Policy

NASA shifts strategy, investing $20 billion in lunar surface base construction

• NASA's new director, Jared Isaacman, announced the abandonment of the lunar orbital space station plan, opting instead to build a $20 billion base on the lunar surface using existing components over the next seven years.
• The background is the intensifying global space competition and rising geopolitical tensions.
• Market impact: Strengthens expectations for US space industry investment, benefiting related aerospace and advanced manufacturing supply chains.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Up about 2.05%, latest at $4,566/oz, rebounding strongly above the $4,500 range after a continuous pullback; with geopolitical easing signals, safe-haven demand has temporarily receded, but capital inflow + technical rebound + long-term bull market logic (central bank gold purchases, long-term geopolitical uncertainty) jointly drove the late-session surge, with strong short-term rebound momentum, and the pullback is seen as a good buying opportunity.
• Spot Silver: Up about 3.75%, latest at $74/oz, with greater volatility than gold; following gold's rebound due to its dual industrial and precious metal attributes, initial signs of industrial demand recovery combined with improved risk appetite provide support.
• WTI Crude Oil: Down about 5.68%, latest at $87.10/barrel, influenced by US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and the successful passage of the Thai tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly alleviating supply disruption concerns, with increased profit-taking pressure at high levels.
• Brent Crude Oil: Down about 6.41%, latest at $97.79/barrel, with the international benchmark more sensitive to geopolitical events, energy costs have significantly retreated from high levels, but long-term Middle Eastern geopolitical logic still provides some support.
• US Dollar Index: Slight fluctuations, latest at 99.18, with risk appetite warming under geopolitical easing signals, the dollar lacks a unilateral direction in the short term, but inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's policy path still provide some support.

Core Drivers: The market quickly trades on the main line of "easing geopolitical risks," leading to a significant drop in energy prices, while alleviating previous inflation concerns caused by high oil prices; precious metals lost some safe-haven support in the short term but rebounded in the late session. Institutions generally believe that the long-term bull market foundation for gold (central bank purchases, long-term geopolitical uncertainty, etc.) remains unchanged, suggesting buying on dips; crude oil faces short-term adjustment pressure, but if negotiations fail to reach a substantial agreement, the energy logic will continue to fluctuate. Investors need to continuously monitor the latest developments in US-Iran negotiations, the G7 foreign ministers' meeting, and subsequent EIA crude oil inventory data for price guidance.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Up about 0.26% in 24H, latest at $70,874, slightly rebounding after continuous fluctuations; geopolitical easing signals boost risk appetite, and short-term safe-haven sentiment recedes, driving capital inflow.
• ETH: Up about 0.87% in 24H, latest at $2,162, slightly warming with the market; leverage liquidation pressure eases.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Up about 0.4% in 24H, around $2.51 trillion, with risk assets resonating in rebound.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of $234 million in 24H, with long positions liquidating $117 million, and the scale of both long and short liquidations narrowing.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around 70,842, with the lower long liquidation zone largely digested, while the upper range of 71,000--73,000 still has a significant concentration of short high-leverage liquidation zones, making it easier to be "squeezed upward" in the short term. The overall structure shows that the liquidation pressure above is significantly greater than the support pressure below; if the price continues to fluctuate, it is inclined to test the upper liquidity concentration area first rather than quickly breaking down.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $61.9 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of $61.9 million yesterday.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Inflow of $2.299 billion yesterday, outflow of $2.472 billion, net inflow of -$174 million.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 0.18%, at 46,124.06 points, with slight fluctuations.
• S&P 500: Down 0.37%, at 6,556.37 points, dragged down by software stocks.
• Nasdaq: Down 0.84%, at 21,761.89 points, with a divergence in the tech sector.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Down 0.27%, closing at $175.20, with strong demand for AI infrastructure providing long-term support.
• Apple (AAPL): Up 0.06%, closing at $251.64, with prominent defensive attributes, relatively resilient.
• Alphabet (GOOGL): Down 3.89%, closing at about $290.44, affected by overall risk appetite and software sector drag.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 2.68%, closing at $372.74, with accelerated data center expansion but unable to fully withstand sector sell-off.
• Amazon (AMZN): Down 1.38%, closing at $207.24, entering the humanoid robot sector provides structural support.
• Meta (META): Down 1.84%, closing at $592.92, with large orders for Arm chips boosting AI application narratives.
• Tesla (TSLA): Up 0.57%, closing at $383.03, with synergy in chip and robot layouts, relatively strong.

Core Reason: Middle East negotiation signals boost risk appetite, but profit-taking pressure on software and growth stocks remains, leading to significant divergence in tech stocks; the optical communication sector surged due to large orders, while software stocks faced pressure, with AI infrastructure and chip self-sufficiency themes continuing to provide structural support.

Sector Movement Observation

Optical Communication Sector significantly rises

• Representative stocks: AAOI up 18.94%, Lumentum up 10.02%
• Driving factors: AAOI received a $53 million order for 800G, with strong demand from data centers.

Extended Tech Software Sector significantly retreats

• Representative stocks: Salesforce down over 6%, ServiceNow down 5.68%
• Driving factors: AWS and Anthropic push AI agents to seize white-collar jobs, accelerating office automation.

# 3. In-depth Stock Analysis

1. Robinhood - $1.5 Billion Stock Repurchase Plan

Event Overview: Robinhood announced authorization to repurchase up to $1.5 billion in stock, after its stock price has fallen 39% since early 2026, and the company believes the current valuation provides a good repurchase window. Market Interpretation: Management and the board show strong confidence, and the ability to create long-term value is recognized. Investment Insight: The strong repurchase signal during a period of low stock prices, pay attention to the subsequent execution's catalytic effect on valuation recovery.

2. Li Auto - $1 Billion Stock Repurchase Plan

Event Overview: Li Auto's board approved a stock repurchase plan, authorizing the repurchase of up to $1 billion of Class A common stock and/or ADRs from the date of approval until March 31, 2027. Market Interpretation: The company is very confident in its future growth prospects. Investment Insight: The repurchase plan strengthens shareholder returns, benefiting medium to long-term valuation stability.

3. Arm Holdings - First Self-Developed AGI CPU Released

Event Overview: Arm released its first self-developed AGI CPU, designed for data center proxy workloads, equipped with up to 136 Neoverse V3 cores; Meta becomes the first major customer, with OpenAI, Cloudflare, and SAP also planning to purchase; the company expects revenue to reach $25 billion within five years. Market Interpretation: Accelerated chip self-sufficiency and ecological cooperation enhance long-term growth certainty. Investment Insight: With the explosive demand for AI computing power, Arm's chip business opens new growth space, pay attention to order fulfillment.

4. Microsoft - Takes Over Texas Data Center and Promotes Nuclear AI Cooperation

Event Overview: Microsoft takes over the 700 MW data center project in Texas abandoned by Oracle and OpenAI, investing about $50 billion; simultaneously, it launches the "AI for nuclear" plan with NVIDIA, compressing the nuclear power licensing approval cycle by 92%. Market Interpretation: Accelerated dual-line layout of computing power and energy, AI infrastructure expansion enters a new stage. Investment Insight: The synergy advantages of energy and computing power are highlighted, long-term beneficial for Microsoft's cloud and AI business.

5. Amazon - Acquires Humanoid Robot Startup Fauna Robotics

Event Overview: Amazon confirms the acquisition of humanoid robot startup Fauna Robotics, with financial terms undisclosed; the company launched a $50,000 humanoid robot named Sprout earlier this year. Market Interpretation: The cloud giant accelerates its layout in the robotics sector, with a clear ecological expansion strategy. Investment Insight: The trend of AI hardware acceleration, Amazon is expected to open new growth points in the robotics field.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Robbie Mitchnick, head of BlackRock Digital Assets, stated that institutional investors are increasingly focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum, believing that most other tokens have short lifecycles and lack long-term value. He pointed out that AI is a more important long-term driver than the expansion of new tokens, and that cryptocurrency as "computer-native currency" has a natural symbiotic relationship with AI's "computer-native data and intelligence."

2. Amy Oldenburg, head of digital asset strategy at Morgan Stanley, stated that Wall Street's entry into the cryptocurrency field is not driven by fear of missing out, but rather the result of years of infrastructure modernization. The bank is expanding its digital asset strategy around trading, asset management, and infrastructure, planning to support tokenized stock trading on alternative trading systems in the second half of 2026. Oldenburg noted that upgrading decades-old banking systems and coordinating the global financial network remains a major challenge, although interest in tools like stablecoins is growing, institutional crypto activity is quietly accumulating.

3. Bitcoin mining economics are under pressure, with some miners facing cost pressures, focusing on subsequent hash rate and difficulty adjustments.

4. BlackRock withdrew 2,267 BTC, worth $157.77 million, from Coinbase in the past 10 hours.

5. According to Wintermute market analysis, influenced by the news of the US pausing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, geopolitical risk premiums have decreased, Brent crude oil prices have retreated, and Bitcoin has re-entered the $70,000 range yesterday. Wintermute stated that if navigation through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and oil prices stabilize around $100, Bitcoin is expected to test the resistance range of $74,000 to $76,000; if the situation worsens again, Bitcoin may retreat to the $65,000 range. If the easing continues, institutional buying on dips may push Bitcoin up to $80,000.

6. Bernstein's latest report states that Bitcoin has bottomed out and reaffirms its price target of $150,000 by the end of this year. The report points out that Bitcoin's recent pullback is a reset of sentiment, with no systemic risks evident in the fundamentals; Bitcoin has risen about 25% relative to gold since the outbreak of the Iran conflict at the end of February. Bernstein is also bullish on Bitcoin treasury company MicroStrategy (Strategy, MSTR), calling it a high-beta Bitcoin proxy, currently holding about 3.6% of Bitcoin's total supply, with a market value of about $53.5 billion, and giving it an "outperform" rating with a target price of $450. The report also mentions that demand for MicroStrategy's preferred stock tool STRC is rising, providing an 11.5% monthly dividend with low volatility, helping to provide long-term capital while reducing equity dilution.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

March 25 (Wednesday)

1. PDD Holdings (Pinduoduo) announces financial report (pre-market), focusing on narrowing cross-border e-commerce losses, Temu's overseas expansion, and domestic competitive pressure, significantly impacting sentiment in the Chinese internet sector;
2. Fed Miran speech;

March 26 (Thursday)

1. US initial jobless claims for the week (20:30), a high-frequency indicator of the labor market;
2. Several Fed officials speak (Jefferson, Barr, etc.), validating recent policy paths and inflation responses;
3. G7 foreign ministers' meeting (26-27), focusing on statements regarding the Middle East/Strait of Hormuz/energy supply.

March 27 (Friday)

1. Final value of the March University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is released, focusing on the impact of geopolitics & oil prices on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Institutional Views

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and other investment banks' latest views suggest that US-Iran negotiations release positive signals, the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz alleviates energy supply concerns, short-term oil prices are under pressure but long-term geopolitical logic still exists; gold pullbacks are seen as buying opportunities, and the long-term bull market foundation remains unchanged. The tech sector shows significant divergence, with AI infrastructure and chip self-sufficiency themes continuing to be favored, and actions by Arm and Microsoft strengthen expectations for computing power expansion. Overall, market risk appetite is warming, but attention still needs to be paid to substantial progress in negotiations and the Federal Reserve's policy path. Overall, in the short-term volatility, the value of energy easing and AI dual mainline configuration is prominent, with medium to long-term opportunities in related supply chains.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.