Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran conflict raises inflation expectations; gold sees the largest weekly drop in six years; oil prices plunge after breaking through (March 20, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year has been completely erased

• After the Bank of England released signals to combat inflation, U.S. Treasury prices fell sharply, and traders canceled all bets on interest rate cuts for the year, with some even beginning to hedge against future rate hike risks;
• The yield on two-year Treasury bonds jumped 13 basis points to 3.9%;
• Market impact: The tightening of the interest rate path directly suppresses risk assets, with the precious metals sector particularly under pressure.

International Commodities

Comments calming the situation in the Middle East caused oil prices to briefly spike before quickly retreating

• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu promised to suspend airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that some Iranian oil sanctions might be lifted and strategic reserves released, with floating oil volumes reaching 130-140 million barrels;
• Both WTI and Brent crude oil initially surged before plummeting;
• Driving factors: Expectations of increased physical supply suppress prices, with oil prices expected to return to February levels.

Macroeconomic Policy

The White House advances AI regulatory framework, and the People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining market stability

• The White House plans to submit AI legislative proposals to Congress on Friday, focusing on online safety for children, prioritizing federal standards, and protecting creators;
• The U.S. also approved some deliveries of Russian crude oil for sale.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Fell for the seventh consecutive trading day, nearing $4500 per ounce, poised for the largest weekly drop in six years, suppressed by the reversal of interest rate expectations;
• Spot Silver: After a sharp drop of 12%, rebounded to $72.8, with volatility far exceeding that of gold;
• WTI Crude Oil: Rose to $100.48 before retreating to $93.67, driven by the U.S. increasing Iranian oil supply plans;
• Brent Crude Oil: Rose to $112 before plummeting to $102.33;
• U.S. Dollar Index: Rose to 100.309 before retreating to the current 99.315, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and interest rate expectations.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Fell about 1.35% in 24 hours, currently at $70124, after a short-term rebound from recent lows, encountering resistance and adjusting in the $70,000-$71,000 range. Continuous net outflows from spot ETFs over two days have slowed inflow momentum, combined with tightening interest rate expectations exerting pressure, while cumulative institutional holdings and easing geopolitical tensions still provide support below;
• ETH: Fell 2.33% in 24 hours, priced around $2147, following the overall market trend and facing short-term pressure;
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Fell 1.8% in 24 hours, with a total market cap of $2.48 trillion, maintaining volatility under risk sentiment dominance;
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidations of $406 million in 24 hours, with long positions liquidated at $303 million and short positions at $99 million.

• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $70,000, with a significant long liquidation concentration in the $69,000-$70,500 range. If prices continue to retreat, it may trigger a chain liquidation of long positions and amplify downward volatility. A large concentration of short liquidations is present in the $71,000-$73,000 range; if prices break above this range, it may trigger short squeezes and push the market further up.
• Spot ETF: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of -$0.519 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of -$0.366 million yesterday;
• BTC Spot: Saw inflows of $2.453 billion yesterday, outflows of $2.583 billion, with a net outflow of about -$130 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Fell 0.44% to 46021.43 points, marking two consecutive days of decline and hitting a new low since November last year;
• S&P 500: Fell 0.27% to 6606.49 points, with intraday losses narrowing;
• Nasdaq: Fell 0.28% to 22090.69 points, with the tech sector overall dragging down performance, although some sub-sectors performed against the trend.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA: Fell 1.02% (closing around $178.56), CEO Jensen Huang recently urged industry leaders to discuss AI risks cautiously to avoid spreading panic and exacerbating societal concerns;
• Alphabet: Fell about 0.19% (closing around $307), the company is expanding cooperation with the utility sector to reduce peak load on data centers and support sustainable expansion of AI infrastructure;
• Apple: Fell 0.39% (closing around $249), generally following the tech sector's adjustment, with no specific major events driving the movement;
• Microsoft: Fell 0.71% (closing around $392), impacted by tightening macro interest rate paths, with AI cloud business remaining robust but facing short-term valuation pressure;
• Amazon: Fell 0.53% (closing around $209), still dragged down by overall market sentiment despite being driven by e-commerce and cloud services;
• Meta: Fell 1.46% (closing around $616), officially announced the gradual advancement of an AI-driven content review system to reduce reliance on third-party vendors and improve review efficiency and cost control;
• Tesla: Fell 3.18% (closing around $380.30), with increased volatility under expectations for electric vehicle deliveries and Robotaxi progress, compounded by a decline in market risk appetite.

Sector Movement Observations

Optical Communication rose over 8%

• Representative stocks: Lumentum rose 10.18%, Applied Optoelectronics rose 10.03%;
• Driving factors: Demand driven by AI data center expansion, strong orders from optical module manufacturers.

Storage Concept rose

• Representative stocks: Seagate Technology rose 6.84%, Western Digital rose 3.95%;
• Driving factors: Supported by AI computing power demand, SanDisk continues to hit new highs.

Gold Mining fell over 5%

• Representative stocks: Newmont Mining fell 6.89%, Harmony Gold fell 6.25%;
• Driving factors: Continuous declines in gold prices dragging down related stocks.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Alibaba - Five-Year Outlook for Cloud and AI Business

Event Overview: In the group’s earnings call, CEO Daniel Zhang emphasized that global computing power will continue to be in short supply over the next three to five years. Tsinghua Unigroup (semiconductor business) not only optimizes costs but also ensures computing power supply. Revenue related to cloud and AI is expected to exceed $100 billion in the next five years, with no clear IPO timetable at present. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally recognize Alibaba's strategic value during the computing power shortage cycle, with the cloud business expected to shift from a cost center to a growth engine. Investment Insight: Focus on the rhythm of performance landing in the short term, while being optimistic about the valuation re-evaluation space brought by AI infrastructure layout in the long term.

2. Uber - Rivian Autonomous Taxi Cooperation

Event Overview: Uber announced an investment of up to $1.25 billion in Rivian, planning to purchase 10,000 fully autonomous R2 Robotaxis, with an option to add another 40,000 by 2030, deploying in multiple U.S. cities starting in 2028. Market Interpretation: Wall Street believes this move accelerates the commercialization of Robotaxis, likely enhancing Uber's long-term growth ceiling. Investment Insight: Pay attention to the progress of autonomous driving regulations and vehicle delivery timelines; successful implementation will significantly enhance valuation attractiveness.

3. Advanced Micro Devices - Export Control Investigation

Event Overview: The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York has charged three associated individuals with violating export controls, but Advanced Micro Devices itself has not been named as a defendant, and the company emphasizes its robust compliance system. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe the event will suppress stock prices in the short term, but the company has a good compliance record, and long-term business impact is limited. Investment Insight: Suggest monitoring the progress of subsequent investigations; after compliance risks materialize, there may be opportunities for recovery.

4. Planet Labs - Fiscal Year 2026 Performance Exceeds Expectations

Event Overview: Fiscal year 2026 revenue reached $307.7 million, a 26% year-over-year increase, with Q4 revenue of $86.8 million, up 41% year-over-year; guidance for fiscal year 2027 has been raised, with total revenue expected to be between $415 million and $440 million. Market Interpretation: Analysts are optimistic about the growth of satellite data demand in AI and defense sectors, and the raised guidance strengthens confidence. Investment Insight: Both performance and guidance exceeding expectations make it suitable to focus on long-term spatial application trends.

5. FedEx - Strong Growth in Q3 of Fiscal Year 2026

Event Overview: Q3 revenue reached $24 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $5.25; guidance for revenue growth in fiscal year 2026 has been raised to 6.0%-6.5%, and the freight separation plan is progressing on schedule. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that demand recovery and efficiency improvements are driving growth, and the raised guidance releases positive signals. Investment Insight: Focus on the recovery of the logistics cycle, with steady growth in performance supporting valuation recovery.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

*

1. According to a report from Cointelegraph yesterday, despite Bitcoin's price falling below $71,000, data shows that its bullish momentum has not waned. Bitcoin dropped 7% after reaching $76,000 on Tuesday, due to the Israeli attack on Iranian gas facilities raising oil prices and the U.S. PPI exceeding expectations, causing a simultaneous drop in U.S. stocks. Analysts point out that continuous buying of U.S.-listed ETFs and strategies provides spot demand support for Bitcoin. The leverage level for Bitcoin longs is low, and even if the price drops another 5%, the risk of chain liquidations is small. Rising inflation concerns negatively impact fixed-income returns, paving the way for funds to rotate from gold to Bitcoin. The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remained below the neutral range when the price broke $76,000, indicating that the upward trend is driven by spot demand rather than derivative speculation. Gold prices have shown signs of fatigue; if funds flow out of gold, it could become a catalyst for Bitcoin's continued rise.

1. According to Lookonchain monitoring, a mysterious whale has again spent 36.75 million USDT to buy 17,084 ETH, with an average purchase price of $2,151.

1. For the week ending March 14, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. recorded 205,000, the lowest since the week of January 10, with market expectations at 215,000. The previous value was 213,000.

1. Goldman Sachs lowered the 12-month target prices for BTC and ETH, attributing it to slowing ETF inflows and a sluggish legislative process.

1. Sam Altman's World project partnered with Coinbase to launch AgentKit, combining AI agent identity verification with stablecoin payments, potentially opening up a new trillion-dollar market.
2. Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor posted on social media stating, "Bitcoin is the ultimate hedge against chaos," accompanied by the "$BTC" tag, reaffirming Bitcoin's positioning as a core asset tool to address macro and financial uncertainties.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

March 20 (Friday)

1. FedEx will announce its latest quarterly performance.

Institutional Views:

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan's latest views indicate that the geopolitical situation is temporarily raising inflation expectations and erasing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to pressure on gold and silver. However, in the long term, central bank gold purchases and investor demand still support gold prices, which are expected to reach over $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026. Regarding oil prices, the U.S. plan to release Iranian oil and reserves may quickly alleviate supply tensions, with WTI and Brent possibly returning to February levels, while structural oversupply remains. In the U.S. stock market, AI themes and loose monetary policies continue to provide support, with the S&P 500 expected to see double-digit growth for the year, but high valuations warrant caution regarding volatility. The cryptocurrency market benefits from continuous ETF inflows and institutional accumulation, with BTC maintaining its dominance. Short-term easing of geopolitical tensions may bring a rebound, but regulatory uncertainties remain a major risk. Overall, investment banks suggest seeking quality asset allocation opportunities amid volatility.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.