Bitget UEX Daily Report | US February CPI to be released; Oil prices fluctuate sharply; NIO reports first quarterly profit (March 11, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Key Senator Agrees to Advance Fed Chair Nomination Process

U.S. Senator Thom Tillis has agreed to initiate the confirmation process for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, viewing him as an excellent candidate.

• Key Points: No additional questions for Warsh are needed; the nomination may be delayed in committee; Tillis had previously promised to block such nominations.
• Market Impact: This development could accelerate changes in the Fed's leadership, boosting investor confidence in policy continuity, but potential delays add uncertainty.

Fed Governor Bowman to Speak Soon

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech today, potentially focusing on interest rate paths and economic outlook.

• Key Points: Timing of the speech is pending; may discuss inflation and employment data; linked to the upcoming February CPI data.
• Market Impact: If dovish signals are released, it could alleviate market concerns about high interest rates and drive a rebound in risk assets.

International Commodities

EIA Significantly Raises Annual Average Price Forecasts for WTI and Brent Crude

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has significantly raised its price forecasts for WTI and Brent crude oil for 2026 and 2027 in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.

• Key Points: 2026 Brent forecast raised to $78.84/barrel (previously $57.69); WTI raised to $73.61/barrel (previously $53.42); for 2027, the forecasts are $64.47 and $60.81/barrel, respectively.
• Market Impact: Reflects ongoing geopolitical risk premiums, which may support energy stocks but exacerbate inflation expectations, indirectly suppressing global stock markets.

G7 Tasks IEA with Developing Oil Reserve Release Plan

The G7 has requested the International Energy Agency to assess the scale and process for releasing oil reserves if necessary to address supply disruptions.

• Key Points: French rotating presidency is pushing this; IEA council will discuss today; transport through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly halted, worsening market conditions.
• Market Impact: Provides potential supply buffers, easing upward pressure on oil prices, and helps stabilize commodity markets and global economic growth expectations.

Strait of Hormuz Blockade Affects Helium Supply

The conflict in Iran has led to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing Qatar's helium facilities to shut down, interrupting one-third of global supply.

• Key Points: South Korea relies on Qatar for 64.7% of its helium; critical raw material shortages for semiconductors; bromine sources are also concentrated in Israel.
• Market Impact: Raises chip production costs, potentially triggering volatility in tech stocks and amplifying supply chain disruption risks.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump Urges Iran to Clear Mines from the Strait of Hormuz

U.S. President Trump has urged Iran to immediately remove any mines that may have been laid, warning of severe military consequences if they do not.

• Key Points: Current mine-laying is limited, but Iran has a large stock of small vessels and mines (2,000-6,000); removal would be a positive signal.
• Market Impact: Heightens geopolitical tensions, but if Iran responds, it could alleviate energy supply concerns, benefiting a rebound in risk assets.

U.S. Government Asks Israel to Halt Attacks on Iranian Energy Facilities

The Trump administration has explicitly constrained Israel for the first time, asking it to stop further airstrikes on Iranian oil and energy infrastructure.

• Key Points: Concerns over soaring oil prices and Iranian retaliation; viewed as a "last resort," only to be considered if Iran strikes first; three insiders revealed this.
• Market Impact: Limits the escalation of conflict, reducing uncertainty in global oil prices, and helping stabilize foreign exchange and stock markets.

U.S. Energy Secretary Deletes Post, Prompting Iranian Response

The U.S. Energy Secretary quickly deleted a post about naval escorts for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran called a lie.

• Key Points: No actual escort has been provided; internal discussions on timing for initiation; Iranian Revolutionary Guard warns U.S. allies are within missile range.
• Market Impact: Highlights information chaos, amplifying market volatility in the short term, but the deletion may suggest a desire for de-escalation, easing risk aversion.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: +0.35%, at $5,211/ounce, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks.
• Spot Silver: +0.52%, price reached $88.74/ounce, following gold but with smaller fluctuations, influenced by industrial demand.
• WTI Crude Oil: -0.87% to $82.7/barrel, driven by Trump's comments easing expectations of conflict with Iran, leading to a decline in risk premiums.
• Brent Crude Oil: -0.51% to $82.86/barrel, driven by similar factors as WTI, with concerns over supply through the Strait of Hormuz easing.
• U.S. Dollar Index: -0.1%, price at 98.83.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: 24H up 1.05% to $69,969, rebounding from recent lows. Driven by risk appetite recovery and ETF inflows.
• ETH: 24H up 0.54% to $2,034.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: 24H up 0.8%, total market cap at $2.46 trillion, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and recovering institutional demand.
• Market Liquidation Situation: 24H total liquidation amount $297 million, with long positions liquidating $134 million and short positions $169 million.

• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price above $69,960 has accumulated short liquidations amounting to $475.99 million, far exceeding the $33.75 million in long liquidations below. If the price rises, it may trigger large-scale short squeezes. Leverage clusters, especially at 50x and 100x, are concentrated around key price levels of $70,000-$71,000 and $73,000-$74,000, potentially amplifying volatility and cascading liquidation effects.
• Spot ETF Net Inflows/Outflows: BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $61 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of $12.6 million.
• BTC spot inflows/outflows: Yesterday's inflow was $3.529 billion, outflow was $3.461 billion, net outflow of $57.4 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 0.07%, closing at 47,706.51 points, with a recent high followed by a pullback, influenced by oil price sensitivity.
• S&P 500: Down 0.21%, closing at 6,781.48 points, characterized by a divergence between technology and energy sectors.
• Nasdaq: Up 0.01%, closing at 22,697.1 points, driven by strong performance in storage and optical communication stocks.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple: Up 0.37%, boosted by expectations of new product launches, but overall market volatility limits gains.
• Amazon: Up 0.39%, raising funds through bond issuance for AI expansion, boosting investor confidence.
• Meta: Up 1.03%, acquiring AI platform Moltbook, strengthening its AI ecosystem.
• Microsoft: Down 0.89%, with the tech sector overall retreating amid intensified AI competition.
• Google: Up 0.22%, launching the multimodal model Gemini Embedding 2, enhancing technical competitiveness.
• Nvidia: Up 1.16%, expanding orders for AI chips, with Groq's production increasing by 70%.
• Tesla: Up 0.14%, with the EV market recovering, but supply chain concerns remain a constraint.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concept Stocks Up Over 3%

• Representative Stocks: Micron Technology, up over 3%; Western Digital, up over 1%.
• Driving Factors: Expectations of memory supply shortages driving demand for PCs and AI-related products.

Optical Communication Stocks Up Nearly 6%

• Representative Stocks: Ciena, up nearly 6%; Lumentum, up nearly 5%.
• Driving Factors: Expansion of 5G and data centers benefiting from AI infrastructure investments.

Solar Energy Stocks Up Over 7%

• Representative Stocks: SolarEdge Technologies, up over 10%; Enphase Energy, up nearly 7%.
• Driving Factors: Support from energy transition policies, with a rebound in renewable energy demand.

Rare Earth Concept Stocks Up Nearly 13%

• Representative Stocks: Critical Metals, up nearly 13%; NioCorp Developments, up nearly 4%.
• Driving Factors: Concerns over supply chain disruptions, with surging demand from electric vehicles and tech manufacturing.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Oracle - AI Orders Drive Performance Above Expectations

Event Overview: Q3 revenue and earnings per share exceeded expectations by over 20%, with cloud business revenue growing 44% year-on-year and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) revenue soaring 84%. Remaining performance obligations (RPO) surged 325% to $553 billion, mainly due to large AI orders and customer prepayments. FY2027 revenue guidance raised to $90 billion, a 34% year-on-year increase; FY2026 capital expenditures remain at $50 billion, with spending doubling year-on-year in the first nine months. No additional debt issuance is expected for the 2026 calendar year. After-hours stock price surged by 10%.

Market Interpretation: Institutional views are generally optimistic, with analysts from Goldman Sachs emphasizing that strong AI orders support growth, raising the target price to $180 and maintaining a buy rating.

Investment Insight: The AI theme continues to gain traction; it is recommended to accumulate on dips to capture opportunities in cloud computing expansion.

2. NIO - Achieves Quarterly Profit for the First Time

Event Overview: In Q4 2025, operating profit reached 1.25 billion yuan, with revenue of 34.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.9%, and a gross margin of 17.5%. Vehicle deliveries totaled 124,800 units, with Q4 gross profit of 6.074 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 100.8%. Cash reserves increased to 45.9 billion yuan, nearly a 10 billion increase quarter-on-quarter. Q1 2026 delivery guidance is 80,000-83,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 90.1%-97.2%, with revenue expected to be 24.48-25.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.4%-109.2%.

Market Interpretation: Morgan Stanley and other institutions view this as a turning point for the electric vehicle industry, upgrading their rating to overweight and raising the target price to $15.

Investment Insight: Strong cost control and delivery growth, with a recovering EV market potentially driving stock price upward.

3. Boeing - Wiring Issues Delay 737 MAX Deliveries

Event Overview: New production aircraft were found to have scratches on the wiring, traced back to machining errors, which will delay some 737 MAX deliveries. Repairs for each aircraft will take several days, impacting overall progress this month, but the annual target of 500 aircraft remains unchanged. In February, 43 aircraft were delivered, with the previous month’s 51 being the highest since 2017.

Market Interpretation: Citigroup analysts express concerns about supply chain stability, lowering the target price to $250 and maintaining a neutral rating.

Investment Insight: Increased short-term delivery pressure; it is advisable to wait for repair progress before re-entering.

4. BioNTech - Co-founders Transition to New mRNA Company

Event Overview: Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci will transition to the management of a new independent company by the end of the year, with BioNTech contributing mRNA technology rights to support next-generation innovations. The supervisory board has initiated the search for successors to ensure smooth business transition. The stock price fell nearly 18% during the day.

Market Interpretation: UBS analysts have mixed views, recognizing the innovation potential but warning of leadership transition risks, maintaining a neutral rating.

Investment Insight: The mRNA field has broad prospects, but high uncertainty during the transition period suggests a short-term avoidance strategy.

5. Amazon - Plans to Issue at Least $37 Billion in Bonds

Event Overview: Initiating the issuance of dollar and euro bonds, targeting $37-42 billion, potentially becoming one of the largest corporate bond issuances in history, aimed at financing the AI boom. The transaction is divided into 11 parts, with maturities ranging from 2 to 50 years, the longest part at a premium of 1.55%. The euro portion may be issued as early as Wednesday, with a maximum size of 10 billion euros.

Market Interpretation: Moody's has downgraded its rating to A2, but S&P has a negative outlook; Goldman Sachs is optimistic about AI investments, maintaining a buy rating.

Investment Insight: Financing strengthens AI positioning, with significant long-term growth potential, suitable for value investors.

6. CRCL - Stablecoin Adoption Drives Strong Stock Rebound

Event Overview: Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock price soared 86% over the past month, rising nearly 10% again on Monday, currently trading around $118, with a market cap of $27.79 billion. The company expects full-year revenue of $1.676 billion in 2025, benefiting from high yields on USDC stablecoin reserves, with GAAP profitability expected in FY2027. Despite volatility post-IPO, strong Q4 performance triggered short covering, driving the stock price rebound from lows. The Iran conflict has raised inflation expectations, further amplifying demand potential for stablecoins in payment and AI agent fields. The company leads the stablecoin market, with USDC circulation dominating.

Market Interpretation: Institutional views are optimistic, with Bernstein analysts raising the target price to $190, emphasizing the expansion potential of stablecoins in payments, commerce, and AI use cases; Mizuho raised its target price to $100, viewing it as a high-beta crypto proxy; the average analyst rating is a buy, with a 12-month target price of $122.25, despite concerns over rising costs, but with strong growth prospects.

Investment Insight: The stablecoin ecosystem continues to expand; it is advisable to pay attention to geopolitical risks and regulatory dynamics, accumulating on dips to capture opportunities in crypto payment themes.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Analyst James Seyffart from Bloomberg Intelligence shared data indicating that by the end of 2025, the top 30 holders of the spot XRP ETF collectively hold about $211 million in shares, with Goldman Sachs being the largest holder at nearly $154 million. Seyffart noted that only a "small portion" of investors are visible in the 13F filings, as "the vast majority do not submit 13F filings." Another Bloomberg analyst, Eric Balchunas, speculated that this mainly comes from XRP "superfans" rather than ordinary retail investors.

2. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, reiterated in a recent memo that Bitcoin prices could reach $1 million each. He pointed out that viewing Bitcoin as a competitor to gold in the global value storage market clarifies its long-term potential. The current global value storage market is nearly $38 trillion, with gold accounting for about $36 trillion and Bitcoin about $1.4 trillion, making up less than 4%.

3. CoinDesk reported that Strategy recorded the largest single-day issuance of STRC stock in history on Monday, raising funds to purchase approximately 1,420 Bitcoins. The trading volume for STRC that day approached $300 million, more than double the near 30-day average of $124 million. The company also revised its Omnibus Sales Agreement, allowing multiple agents to execute stock sales outside normal trading hours to enhance financing flexibility for acquiring BTC through STRC.

4. Matrixport published an analysis yesterday stating that Bitcoin has maintained a sideways trend since early February. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, weak U.S. employment data, and a general pullback in global stock markets (with the Korean stock market experiencing a significant drop), Bitcoin has shown strong resilience. Even with a sharp rise in oil prices over the weekend, Bitcoin only retraced to the support level around $66,000, which continues to hold. The institution previously mentioned in its daily report that the likelihood of Bitcoin strengthening and returning to the $70,000 to $80,000 range is increasing. As the market gradually digests the impact of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin is expected to break free from geopolitical disturbances and repair towards higher trading ranges.

5. The DeFi platform Aave experienced a rare $27 million liquidation event due to a price oracle malfunction, which observers believe is related to updates in the risk assessment system, highlighting challenges in DeFi stability.

6. The boom in stablecoins may erode traditional bank profits, Jefferies analysts warned that the digital dollar's applications in payments and the crypto market will gradually siphon off bank deposits, forcing the latter to seek more expensive financing.

7. U.S. senators proposed a compromise on stablecoin yields, attempting to break the legislative deadlock on the crypto clarity bill, which could accelerate the legislative process and provide regulatory clarity.

8. Aptos will unlock $10.88 million worth of 11.31 million APT tokens on March 12, accounting for 0.69% of the circulating supply, with 69% of the supply already staked, which may alleviate selling pressure but requires attention to market absorption.

9. Virtuals Protocol, in collaboration with the Ethereum Foundation, proposed the ERC-8183 AI agent standard and launched a monthly $1 million reward program, with tokens rising 3.9%, aimed at incentivizing user participation.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

March 11 (Wednesday)

1. 20:30, U.S. February CPI year-on-year release, expected at 2.4%;
2. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman to speak;
3. Apple iPhone 17e and new iPad Air to go on sale.

March 12 (Thursday)

1. 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7, expected at 21.3;
2. After U.S. stock market close, Adobe to release earnings report.

March 13 (Friday)

1. 20:30, U.S. January core PCE price index year-on-year release, expected at 3.1%;
2. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss the Middle East situation.

Institutional Views:

Renowned investment bank analysts hold a cautiously optimistic view on the 24-hour market trend. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that gold and Bitcoin are testing key resistance levels, benefiting from Trump's comments easing geopolitical risks, while falling oil prices alleviate inflation concerns. However, they warn that if U.S. CPI data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen hawkish sentiment, suppressing stocks and crypto assets. JPMorgan points out that while tech giants benefit from AI orders amid divergence in U.S. stocks, the overall market is dragged down by the energy sector; in the forex market, strong demand for the dollar as a safe haven supports gold and silver as hedging tools. The rebound in the crypto market is attributed to ETF inflows and a recovery in risk appetite, but Jefferies cautions that the expansion of stablecoins may erode bank profits, indirectly affecting liquidity. Overall, institutions recommend focusing on CPI and FOMC, short-term allocation of defensive assets, and mid-term optimism on AI and energy transition themes.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice.