Analysis: The Middle East conflict drives institutional inflows into the crypto market, with Bitcoin outperforming gold and U.S. stocks

As the situation in the Middle East escalates and impacts global markets, Bitcoin has recently outperformed traditional assets. Data shows that since the outbreak of the conflict related to Iran, Bitcoin has risen about 3.5% to approximately $68,000, while Gold has fallen about 5%, Silver about 12%, and the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have also dropped about 1% and 1.5%, respectively. Market analysis suggests that Bitcoin's recent rebound is related to the clearing of leverage in the derivatives market.

Data indicates that the open interest in Bitcoin-denominated futures has decreased, and the funding rate for perpetual contracts remains at a negative value of about -3.5%, indicating that short positions are still crowded. Meanwhile, the "Coinbase premium" has reappeared, coupled with continuous net inflows into spot ETFs, suggesting that U.S. institutional investors may view the current price range as a new opportunity for positioning. On the macro front, driven by geopolitical conflicts, WTI crude oil briefly rose to about $116 per barrel, before retreating to around $100 due to expectations of strategic reserve releases from the G7; the U.S. dollar index rose to about 99, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries increased from around 4% to about 4.2%.