Gate Research Institute: BTC implied volatility is at 88% high over the past year, with 24H call spread strategies dominating the market

According to observations from Gate Research Institute, the current implied volatility (IV) for BTC and ETH is approximately 53% and 69%, respectively. The BTC IV is near the 88th percentile of the past year, reflecting a significant increase in the options market's expectations for short-term price volatility. Over the past week, the 25-Delta Skew for BTC and ETH has remained in negative territory, initially converging before sharply dropping to -18 vol on the short end around the 23rd to 24th, indicating a temporary rise in risk aversion; subsequently, the Skew quickly recovered, showing that the impact is driven by short-term events.

From the GEX distribution perspective, Gamma is concentrated around the end of February expiration, putting pressure on short-term volatility; there is negative Gamma in mid-March, and if this range is reached, volatility may be amplified, posing a structural switching risk. In the past 24 hours, large options trades for BTC and ETH have been predominantly bullish: the largest structure is BTC 27MAR26 buy 90k-C / sell 100k-C, approximately 600 BTC, with a net premium expenditure of $70,000; for ETH, it is 27MAR26 buy 2500-C, approximately 9,000 ETH, with a net premium payment of $220,000.

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