# I. Outlook

## 1. Macroeconomic Summary and Future Predictions

The latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund indicates that global economic growth is expected to be around 3.3% in 2026. Although the growth rate is stable, it remains at a relatively low level, with significant differentiation in growth momentum. Overall inflation is expected to continue to decline, but the pace of inflation reduction in the United States is slow, and uncertainties stemming from the pandemic's aftermath and trade frictions remain downside risks.

The newly implemented unified 15% global tariff by the United States has triggered market volatility, leading to a short-term weakening of the dollar, pressure on the stock market, and an increase in safe-haven assets (such as gold). This policy uncertainty is likely to continue affecting market risk appetite and trading sentiment in the coming week. If the policy becomes clearer (for example, through specific implementation details or diplomatic responses), the market may stabilize or experience a pullback in volatility in the short term.

## 2. Market Changes and Warnings in the Crypto Industry

Last week, BTC briefly attempted to rise above $70,000 but then fell back, showing a significant decline on the 23rd of this month, with BTC dropping below $65,000 during trading. The volatility and sentiment are more influenced by macro risks and liquidity conditions. The reason may be that news regarding tariff/trade policy uncertainty has triggered safe-haven behavior and deleveraging, causing risk assets (including crypto) to weaken simultaneously.

In the coming week, if inflation-related data (such as the market-focused PCE) reinforces expectations of "delayed rate cuts/higher rates for longer," BTC/ETH may come under further pressure; conversely, if the data is weak, it would be more beneficial for risk assets to catch a breather. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding tariff/trade policies may continue to ferment within the week, causing simultaneous fluctuations in the dollar, interest rates, and risk appetite, with crypto often treated as a high-volatility risk asset.

## 3. Industry and Sector Hotspots

A brief analysis of undisclosed total financing led by Delphi and CoinDCX—BFT L1 Hotstuff, which has linear communication complexity and deterministic finality, and a total financing of $10 million, led by Barclays and Galaxy, with participation from Coinbase, LayerZero, and Paxos—aiming to bring stablecoins into the mainstream financial system with "SWIFT + Visa level infrastructure Ubyx."

A detailed explanation of total financing of $10.31 million, led by Borderless, with 14 well-known VCs participating—XMAQUINA, the next-generation foundational network born for high-frequency, automated, and verifiable execution.

# II. Market Hotspot Sectors and Potential Projects of the Week

## 1. Potential Project Overview

1.1. A brief analysis of undisclosed total financing led by Delphi and CoinDCX—BFT L1 Hotstuff with linear communication complexity and deterministic finality.

Introduction

Hotstuff L1 is a DeFi-native Layer 1 blockchain powered by the DracoBFT consensus mechanism. From its inception, it has been positioned as a financial routing layer rather than another general-purpose EVM public chain.

Hotstuff L1 is a strongly opinionated state machine: its core is an on-chain order book designed to support spot trading, perpetual contracts, and eventually expand to options, covering both crypto assets and traditional financial instruments, including foreign exchange (FX), commodities, and stock indices.

Similar to HyperLiquid or Lighter, Hotstuff L1 has undergone vertical integration in its architecture to maximize trading performance.

Core Mechanism Overview

1. Consensus Protocol Overview

• DracoBFT is a leader-based, view-driven BFT consensus protocol.

• It implements Fast-HotStuff's Two-Chain Finality.

• Key advantages:

• Sub-second finality.

• Two rounds of confirmation complete finality (one round less than standard HotStuff).

• Linear complexity for view-change.

• State submission cost O(m) (only related to the number of keys modified within the block).

2. System Model

• Number of validators:

• n = 3f + 1, tolerating up to f Byzantine nodes.

• Network model: Partial Synchrony.

• Security assumptions:

• All messages are signed.

• SHA256 is used as a collision-resistant hash.

• There is an upper bound on network latency after GST.

3. Two-Chain Finality

• When block B is referenced by its child block B' (view v+1) in view v:

• B is confirmed as final.

• Compared to traditional HotStuff:

• Finality reduces from 3 rounds to 2 rounds.

• Significantly reduces latency.

4. Vote Rule

• Validators only vote for proposals that directly inherit certified blocks.

• Enforce continuous views.

• Ensure the security of Fast-HotStuff.

5. State Submission Optimization: Change-Log Hash (CLH)

Traditional Issues

• MPT/IAVL requires calculating the global state root.

• Costs:

• O(n log n).

• Bottleneck in disk I/O.

• Can lead to block construction being 10 times slower.

DracoBFT's Solution

• Does not submit the complete state.

• Only submits:

• State change logs (Change Log).

• That is, "which keys were changed + final values."

Block-Level Aggregation

• The same key modified multiple times within a block:

• Only hash once.

6. Chained CLH

chainedCLHB = H(chainedCLHprev + finalizedCLH_B)

• Purpose:

• Link state changes across blocks.

• Support fork detection.

• Support historical state verification.

7. Auxiliary Verification Architecture

Parallel Pipeline

External operations and consensus are processed in parallel:

1. Proof Collection

• zkTLS or ZK execution proofs.

1. Proof Verification

• Generate verification certificates.

1. Consensus Integration

• Enter mempool as transactions.

1. Finality

• Atomic application of state changes after block finalization.

8. Trustless External Data Access

zkTLS (for off-chain data)

• Verifies the content returned by HTTPS APIs:

• The true identity of the server.

• The correctness of the response content.

• The data has not been tampered with.

• No need for external services to be aware of the blockchain.

• Supports:

• Price data.

• Authentication.

• Any HTTPS API.

Cross-chain state verification

• zkTLS RPC proofs (efficient, partially trusted RPC).

• Zero-knowledge execution proofs (completely trustless).

9. Validator-as-a-Service

• Validators not only produce blocks but also provide:

• Data access.

• External system integration.

• Compliance services.

Routing mechanisms based on:

• Staking amount.

• Historical performance.

• Geographical location.

• QoS (latency, availability).

• Supported fiat currencies/payment/banking services.

Compliance

• Validators selectively provide services based on region and regulation.

• Adapt to compliance requirements across multiple jurisdictions.

10. View-Change Protocol

• O(n) complexity.

• Process:

• Timeout → Send NEWVIEW.

• New leader collects 2f+1 NEWVIEW.

• Selects the highest QC to produce blocks.

11. Leader Selection

• Deterministic weighted random.

• Based on stake ratio.

• Epoch-level calculation.

• Updates when the validator set changes.

Tron Comments

HotStuff is a leader-based BFT consensus protocol that employs linear communication complexity and a three-phase commit mechanism, achieving deterministic finality under a partially synchronous network model. It is widely used in the next generation of PoS public chains (such as Diem, Aptos, and early designs of Sui). Its advantages include a simple protocol structure, strong theoretical security, and a view-change complexity of O(n), significantly reducing communication overhead compared to PBFT, with good decentralized scalability.

However, its disadvantages are also evident: standard HotStuff requires 3 rounds of confirmation for finality, and performance significantly declines in high-latency or frequent leader-switching scenarios. Additionally, state submission typically relies on a global state root (such as MPT/IAVL), which can easily become an engineering bottleneck in high-throughput L1, leading to increased confirmation delays and execution costs.

1.2. Interpretation of total financing of $10 million, led by Barclays and Galaxy, with participation from Coinbase, LayerZero, and Paxos—Ubyx, a "SWIFT + Visa level infrastructure" bringing stablecoins into the mainstream financial system.

Introduction

Ubyx is a global clearing and settlement platform designed to enable stablecoins to operate like universal digital cash. It allows banks, fintech companies, issuers, and merchants to receive, deposit, and redeem stablecoins at face value across multiple currencies and blockchains using existing financial infrastructure. The protocol ensures face-value redemption through a shared rulebook and pre-funded settlement accounts, aligning stablecoins with cash equivalents (IAS7) in accounting treatment and enabling peer-to-peer payments without intermediaries.

Architecture Overview

Core Mechanism Design of Ubyx

1. Pre-funded Settlement Accounts

This is the most crucial step in the entire system.

• Each stablecoin issuer:

• Must pre-deposit cash at a designated settlement bank.

• Specifically for redemption.

This means:

• Redemption does not rely on:

• Market liquidity.

• Instant selling.

• Instead, it is:

• Similar to check clearing.

• Similar to card settlement.

Risk is shifted from "issuer credit" to "clearing rules."

2. Standardized Clearing Process (Like Checks)

The white paper frequently uses "checks" as an analogy:

• Users hand stablecoins to banks.

• Banks act as agents to request redemption from issuers.

• Success → User accounts credited at face value.

• Failure → Stablecoins returned.

No price discovery, trade matching, or slippage.

Only:

• Rules.

• Clearing.

• Settlement.

3. CCIM Abstract Complexity (User-Transparent)

For end users:

• No need to understand:

• Which chain.

• Which issuer.

• How funds move.

As long as they see:

• Ubyx Trust Mark.

• It means:

• It can be accepted.

• It can be credited.

• At face value.

4. Rulebook + Trust Mark: Institutionalized Trust

Ubyx Rulebook

• A set of open-source rules:

• Issuer admission.

• Receiving institution admission.

• Clearing processes.

• Risk management.

• Similar to:

• Payment network rules.

• Interbank clearing regulations.

• Governable by DAO, with version evolution.

5. Ubyx Trust Mark

• Similar to Visa/Mastercard logos.

• Represents:

• "This is a universally redeemable stablecoin."

• Significantly meaningful for users:

• No need to judge risk.

• No need to care about details.

6. Economic Model: Incentivizing All Participants

The white paper clearly states: For stablecoins to scale, TradFi must make money.

Revenue sources include:

• Receiving institution service fees.

• Issuer redemption fees.

• Foreign exchange conversions.

• Platform clearing fees.

At a trillion-dollar scale:

• Receiving institutions: Hundreds of billions in revenue.

• Issuers: Stable, predictable non-interest income.

• Ubyx: Infrastructure-level revenue.

7. Regulatory and Compliance Stance (Very Clear)

Ubyx's strategy is not "against regulation," but rather:

• Does not custody user funds.

• Does not become a counterparty.

• Does not engage in credit.

• Does not replace banks.

Instead:

• Pulls stablecoin activities back into the existing financial system.

• Enhances monetary consistency (Singleness of Money).

• Provides system-level resilience.

8. Final Vision: Stablecoins ≠ Crypto Assets

The final conclusion of the white paper is very clear: A truly successful stablecoin will no longer be referred to as a "crypto asset," but simply as "money."

What Ubyx aims to do is:

• Be the SWIFT + Visa of the stablecoin era.

• An invisible yet indispensable infrastructure.

Tron Comments

Ubyx's advantage lies in its approach to stablecoins from the perspective of financial infrastructure and compliance, achieving face-value redemption and cash-equivalent accounting treatment (IAS7) for stablecoins in a multi-chain, multi-currency environment through a shared rulebook and pre-funded settlement accounts. This significantly reduces compliance and settlement friction for merchants, banks, and institutions using stablecoins, making stablecoins truly usable as "digital cash." At the same time, it does not rely on new payment intermediaries but rather reuses existing banks and payment networks, facilitating scalable implementation.

Its disadvantage is that the system is highly dependent on the participation and pre-funding efficiency of traditional financial institutions, with high capital occupation costs, limited decentralization, and the network effect not yet fully established. In the short term, it is more suitable for institutional and compliant scenarios rather than a native crypto permissionless payment ecosystem.

## 2. Key Projects of the Week

2.1. A detailed explanation of total financing of $10.31 million, led by Borderless, with 14 well-known VCs participating—XMAQUINA, the next-generation foundational network born for high-frequency, automated, and verifiable execution.

Introduction

XMAQUINA is a community-driven ecosystem designed to open a direct path for the public to the rise of Physical AI.

With the rapid development of Physical AI, opportunities to participate and invest in this field have long been limited to a select few insiders. XMAQUINA provides the community with a new path for participation, allowing them to co-own leading humanoid robotics companies, businesses located at critical points in the robotics supply chain, and strategic Physical AI assets, including machines that operate in the real world and generate revenue.

Architecture Overview

XMAQUINA DAO

XMAQUINA DAO is a decentralized autonomous organization focused on decentralized Physical AI, governed by global builders, technical experts, and long-termists, dedicated to promoting robotics and Physical AI as the next generation of open, co-buildable, and shareable technology infrastructure.

The DAO governs a multi-asset treasury, strategically allocating capital to humanoid robotics companies, the robotics industry chain, Physical AI infrastructure, and machines that operate in the real world and generate cash flow, with all decisions made under community oversight.

a. DAO Governance Structure (High Level)

1. DAO Members

• Obtain governance rights by staking DEUS tokens.

• Influence is determined by the amount and duration of staking.

• Directly participate in proposals, voting, and direction setting.

1. Northstar Council

• Up to 6 DAO representatives.

• Responsible for aligning long-term strategy and mission.

• Ensures DAO operations comply with the established charter.

1. Scoring Committee

• Composed of experts from VC, robotics, and Web3 fields.

• Evaluates proposals, issues research memos, and provides strategic advice.

• Enhances the quality of DAO decision-making.

1. Execution Engine

• DAO-authorized execution and operational unit.

• Operates autonomously within the established budget and authorization scope.

• Gradually decentralizes and automates as the DAO matures.

• Drives the machine economy and Physical AI project implementation.

1. DEUS Labs

• Internal innovation and incubation center of XMAQUINA.

• Focuses on Web3 × Robotics.

• Incubates open-source projects, DePIN networks, and derivative products.

• Creates long-term strategic assets and token utility for the DAO.

b. Core Functions of the Execution Engine

• Investment and project discovery: Robotics, DePIN, Physical AI.

• Compliance and legal: Regulations, taxes, structural security.

• Token economics and incentives: Sustainable growth of DEUS.

• Governance evolution: Transparent and fair processes.

• Operations and communication: Community growth and brand influence.

• Treasury and DeFi: Asset management and yield strategies.

c. Core Mission of DEUS Labs

• Expand DEUS token utility.

• Incubate robotics and Physical AI products.

• Build DePIN/open-source robotics networks.

• Collaborate with universities, research institutions, and industries.

• Projects can apply for DAO funding support after reaching MVP.

d. Core Asset Map of the DAO

• Multi-token treasury: ETH, BTC, stablecoins, DePIN/DePAI blue-chip assets.

• Equity in humanoid robotics companies.

• Core enterprises in the robotics industry chain.

• DePIN & DePAI protocols.

• Machine RWAs: Autonomous machines operating in the real world, generating continuous cash flow.

The DAO's Treasury

The treasury of XMAQUINA DAO is configured based on the core principles of mission alignment, high growth potential, and risk diversification:

• 70% equity in humanoid robotics companies.
  Invest in globally leading humanoid robotics and Physical AI companies in the private phase, covering different regions and application scenarios, building a diversified portfolio to capture long-term growth dividends in the industry.

• 15% DePIN & DePAI tokens.
  Layout decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) and decentralized Physical AI (DePAI) networks through early SAFT and other methods, strengthening the DAO's infrastructure-level position in the Web3 × Physical AI ecosystem.

• 15% machine-related real-world assets (Machine RWAs).
  Including robotic systems, automated facilities, and service machines operating in the real world, these assets are held and governed by the DAO, continuously generating cash flow in real commercial environments.

• Liquidity reserves.
  Some assets are held in stablecoins to ensure the DAO's operational flexibility and rapid response capability, avoiding passive liquidation of long-term assets.

1. Phase Evolution Path of the Treasury

Phase 1: Accumulation

• The industry is still in the PoC and early deployment stage.

• Treasury focus:
  Continuously accumulate quality humanoid robotics company equity.

• Prepare for long-term scalable applications.

Phase 2: Expansion & Diversification

• Entering the real commercial deployment stage.

• The treasury begins to:

• Layout cloud AI, coordination protocols, and robotics operation layers.

• Increase the proportion of Machine RWAs.

• Balance long-term growth with cash flow assets.

Phase 3: Tokenization & Maturity

• Industry growth is fully priced by the market.

• Treasury focus shifts to:

• DAO-held Machine RWAs.

• Fully on-chain revenue.

• Machine DeFi becomes a key unlocking point.
  Productive machine assets can be used as DeFi collateral to obtain liquidity.

Phase 3 marks the complete realization of XMAQUINA's vision: a decentralized machine economy co-owned, co-built, and co-governed by the community.

2. Crypto Asset Yield

• Revenue Sources

• Staked and DeFi-deployed liquid crypto assets.

• Stablecoin DeFi strategies.

• DEUS liquidity pools.

• Revenue Distribution (Initial)

• 50% → DAO treasury (to expand robotics and DePAI asset allocation).

• 50% → Profit Bucket (governed by DEUS stakers).

  • Can be used for buybacks, staking incentives, etc.

3. Machine Asset Yield

• Sources

• Robotic systems operating in the real world (e.g., automated farms, robotic cafes, service robots).

• Generate revenue in fiat currency.

• On-chain Mechanism

• Convert fiat revenue into stablecoins through decentralized infrastructure.

• Use smart contracts for transparent, trustless distribution.

• Revenue Distribution (Accumulation Phase)

• 50% → DAO treasury (to expand long-term strategic assets).

• 50% → Profit Bucket (benefiting DEUS holders).

Tron Comments

XMAQUINA unifies private equity in humanoid robotics, real-world machine assets (Machine RWAs), and DePIN/DePAI infrastructure under on-chain governance through a modular architecture of DAO + SubDAO + Launchpad, forming a scalable decentralized machine economy network. Its core advantage lies in positioning itself early in the high-growth Physical AI sector, achieving scalable layout through community capital, and creating a positive feedback loop of asset and value return through the Launchpad mechanism.

However, its challenges are also clear: the project heavily relies on the landing of physical assets and industrial collaboration, with execution complexity and compliance costs significantly higher than purely on-chain protocols, while asset liquidity is relatively limited, strongly depending on governance efficiency, operational capability, and the macro development pace of the robotics industry.

# III. Industry Data Analysis

1. Overall Market Performance

1.1. Spot BTC vs ETH Price Trends

BTC

ETH

2. Summary of Hot Sectors

# IV. Macroeconomic Data Review and Key Data Release Points for Next Week

This Week's Data Review

1) Consumer Confidence & Price Pressure: This week, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) was released, showing a significant decline in January confidence, adding volatility to market sentiment. Meanwhile, the market focused on January PPI (Producer Price Index) as a leading indicator of inflation pressure.

2) Global Inflation Continues to Decline: The UK CPI showed that January inflation fell to 3.0%, reaching a near 10-month low, prompting the market to raise expectations for a rate cut in the UK in March.

Key Data for Next Week

The U.S. International Trade Balance (Goods & Services) is expected to be released on March 5, reflecting the trade balance situation for January, an important leading data point for commenting on GDP and external demand contributions.

# V. Regulatory Policies

China

On February 6, the People's Bank of China, in conjunction with multiple ministries, issued a notice reiterating and upgrading the regulatory policies for virtual currencies. The new regulations clarify that virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies, and related business activities are considered illegal financial activities, strictly prohibiting domestic exchanges, trading, and other businesses. Notably, the new regulations for the first time include the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) within the regulatory scope, explicitly stating that such activities are suspected of illegal financial activities and are prohibited, while strictly limiting foreign institutions from providing related services to domestic entities. Additionally, the new regulations strengthen the supervision of foreign-issued virtual currencies, requiring domestic entities to undergo strict regulation when conducting related businesses abroad, and enhance the management of financial, intermediary, and technical service institutions, while continuing to rectify virtual currency "mining" activities.

United States

The White House held talks with the banking and crypto industries to discuss the market structure bill, expressing support for a limited stablecoin reward program and urging the banking sector to reach an agreement on the "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act." Meanwhile, the SEC chairman elaborated on the key points of crypto policy for 2026, marking a shift in regulatory thinking from "confrontation" to "collaboration." The SEC plans to advance the "Project Crypto" joint initiative, considering the introduction of "innovation exemption" clauses to allow tokenized securities to be traded in controlled environments, and plans to develop rules for broker-dealers to custody non-securities crypto assets (including payment stablecoins), while considering providing clear no-action letters or exemptions for user interfaces like wallets.

European Union

On February 12, the European Banking Authority (EBA) issued an opinion providing guidance for the integration of the "Crypto Asset Market Regulation" (MiCA) and the "Payment Services Directive 2" (PSD2). The opinion states that as the transition period approaches on March 2, 2026, crypto asset service providers (CASPs) offering electronic money token (EMT) services must apply for PSD2 authorization if their services constitute payment services. The EBA recommends that national authorities adopt a case-by-case review approach, allowing institutions with submitted applications that are progressing well to continue operating conditionally; otherwise, they must cease related services, significantly reducing regulatory flexibility and increasing the risk of dual authorization.

Japan

The Financial Services Agency (FSA) of Japan is publicly soliciting opinions on new stablecoin reserve asset rules, with the consultation period ending on February 27. The new regulations aim to fill the regulatory gap following the revision of the "Payment Services Act," clarifying that stablecoin issuers may use foreign bonds that meet specific conditions as reserve assets, requiring bonds to have extremely high credit ratings and the issuing country's bond market to be large (with an outstanding balance of at least $648 billion). At the same time, the FSA requires banks, insurance companies, and other institutions providing crypto services to clearly explain risks to customers to prevent misunderstandings due to institutional endorsements. Institutions handling foreign-issued stablecoins must ensure they do not promote them to the public in Japan, and the FSA will strengthen cooperation with overseas regulatory agencies.

Singapore

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) revealed that the application for crypto service licenses has entered the final review stage. Since the enactment of the "Payment Services Act" in 2020, MAS has received over 480 applications, of which about 170 involve digital payment token (DPT) services. No DPT service providers have yet obtained formal licenses, but institutions including Binance Asia Services and Coinbase Singapore are currently operating under exemption status. MAS stated that it will strictly review the anti-money laundering and technical risk control capabilities of applicant institutions, with 30 applications having been withdrawn after communication, and 2 being rejected.