Willy Woo: The market has priced in quantum threats with a sell pressure of 4 million, and BTC price performance will continue to be overshadowed by gloom

Renowned analyst Willy Woo stated that the 12-year valuation trend of Bitcoin relative to gold has recently been broken. The relative valuation of BTC should be higher, but in reality, it has not been achieved, mainly due to the awakening of risks associated with quantum computing, which has led the market to start pricing in potential issues ahead of time.

Bitcoin is likely to be patched in the future through quantum-resistant signatures, but this will not solve the issue of approximately 4 million "lost" BTC (early lost private keys may be cracked by quantum computers) re-entering circulation. Willy Woo estimates a 75% probability that these lost Bitcoins will not be frozen through a protocol hard fork, so the market needs to factor in the selling pressure from the 4 million coins.

Since MicroStrategy began accumulating BTC in 2020, the total accumulation by enterprises and ETFs has only reached 2.8 million BTC. These 4 million lost tokens are equivalent to 8 years of corporate accumulation, which will cause serious supply dilution. Before "Q-Day" (the day quantum computing threats materialize, expected in 5-15 years), the price of BTC will continue to be affected by this cloud of uncertainty.