Next week's macro outlook: Fed minutes and PCE are coming, tariff case may see a resolution

The global market will迎来 a "data bomb" week next week. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting on Thursday at 03:00, and the market will look for more clues about the interest rate cut path in 2026; the focus will be on the preliminary U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter and the core PCE price index to be released on Friday at 21:30. As the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, if the PCE reading is higher than expected, it may affect the pace of policy easing for the year.

On the central bank front, several Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the meeting minutes, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision. The market generally expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to remain on hold, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may emphasize the risks of rising inflation. In terms of asset performance, spot gold maintains high-level fluctuations, rebounding after a significant drop during the week; oil prices rose and then fell, with market rumors that OPEC+ may resume production increases in April; the movement of the U.S. dollar has become a key variable, and if it does not make new lows, it may maintain relative strength against the backdrop of the approaching tariff decision.

At the same time, demand for U.S. Treasuries is heating up, which may trigger a new round of asset reallocation. In terms of major events, the Supreme Court of the United States will issue opinions on February 20, including rulings on Trump's "Day of Liberation" tariff policy. If the ruling is unfavorable, it may have a significant impact on related tariff measures and affect global trade and market sentiment.

On the corporate level, the earnings season is coming to an end. Walmart will announce its fourth-quarter performance for the fiscal year.