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The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 90.1%

Feb 05, 2026 06:03:45

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According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 90.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 9.9%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 23.2%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 75.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 1.6%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 46%.

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