Wintermute: This bear market may end faster than previous ones, and the market is likely to recover in the second half of the year

Wintermute posted on X that it is clear we are in a bear market, which has actually been ongoing for some time—especially considering the performance of altcoins, the extreme concentration of rebounds, and the market sentiment on X. However, what distinguishes this bear market is that it is not triggered by structural collapses like FTX, Luna, or 3AC, but rather driven by changes in the macro environment and cyclical trends, representing a relatively natural deleveraging process, with its core driving forces stemming from changes in positions, risk appetite, and market narratives.

This point is crucial. Due to the absence of bankruptcies and systemic contagion, this cycle may end more quickly than previous bear markets. The infrastructure is more robust, the adoption of stablecoins is still growing, and institutional interest has not disappeared; it has merely retreated to a wait-and-see stance. Once the environment improves, attention and capital may quickly return—most likely occurring in the second half of 2026, when macro uncertainty decreases and the Federal Reserve's policy path becomes clearer.

In the short term, positions have clearly lightened after the liquidation, but market confidence remains insufficient. After two months of range-bound fluctuations, we have returned to the price discovery phase. It is still too early to talk about any meaningful upward trends, but if they do occur, their form may be clearer than the reversals seen in previous bear markets—because this time, the crypto ecosystem has not suffered structural damage.