QCP: The future trend of Bitcoin largely depends on whether it can hold the support level of $74,000

The Singaporean crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzed that after Kevin Walsh was officially recognized as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 support level on Saturday, hitting a low of $74,500, while Ethereum also dropped below $2,170. The market experienced a new round of deleveraging, with over $2.5 billion in long leveraged positions being liquidated, compounded by continued outflows from ETFs, further dampening market sentiment.

Risk aversion continued to spread after Walsh's appointment, affecting the stock market and extending to traditional safe-haven assets. Gold and silver prices continued to retreat as investors reassessed the policy path under Walsh's leadership, with expectations for policy normalization or tightening heating up, weakening the demand for non-yielding precious metals. Futures exchanges raised margin requirements, accelerating the liquidation of leveraged positions. Bitcoin is currently finding temporary support above $74,500, a level that coincides with the technical low of the 2025 cycle.

Signals from the options market remain cautious, with a clear skew towards put options, but compared to the extreme levels during last November when Bitcoin fell from $107,000 to $80,500, the current hedging demand has eased, possibly reflecting that investors are positioning for a short-term bottom. However, market momentum remains weak, and upward potential is constrained by recent resistance levels. The future trend will largely depend on whether the $74,000 support level can be maintained.

If it breaks down, it could trigger a deeper correction; if it returns above $80,000, it would help normalize volatility and option skew. The market is focused on whether institutions will reaccumulate positions near the average cost of $76,000, as well as geopolitical risks and signals from the Federal Reserve.