Real Vision co-founder review "10.11": Top CEXs forced to step in and take over, followed by continued selling leading to market weakness

Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal stated on a podcast this week that, according to the global liquidity model, Bitcoin's price should currently be around $140,000. However, the "1011" event caused cryptocurrencies to lag behind the stock market and gold. Raoul Pal attempted to recap what he believes to be the process of the "1011" event in the video as follows:

On that day, a significant macro shock (Trump's tariff policy) led to a collective explosion of highly leveraged positions. During the peak of the liquidation cascade, Binance's API briefly went down, preventing professional market makers from placing orders, providing liquidity, or hedging risks. A chain reaction followed, with liquidations continuing to amplify, forcing major CEXs to step in with their own balance sheets to prevent a complete system collapse.

Raoul expects that the CEXs passively absorbed a large amount of assets during the event (potentially around $10 billion in inventory). The reason for the market's subsequent long-term weakness is that the CEXs that took over at that time concentrated on algorithmic selling during the U.S. stock market opening hours to gradually sell off their inventory.

Raoul anticipates that the "digestion period" of this round of selling pressure is expected to clear by the end of February, and believes that after the selling pressure is cleared, Bitcoin will quickly rebound and reach $140,000. Additionally, Raoul believes that the debt risk of Strategy is manageable, and Saylor has cleaned up the balance sheet through bond/equity issuance.

However, in response to the above speculation, Zhao Changpeng publicly stated during a Space on Friday that "the 1011 crash was not caused by any issues with the Binance system or operations; Binance is regulated and has no conditions to engage in any violations."