Bitget UEX Daily Report | U.S. Government Shutdown Crisis Temporarily Averted; Iran Situation Drives Up Oil Prices; Gold Prices Rebound, Microsoft Earnings Diverge (January 30, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, focusing on the balance between economic growth and inflation

• The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75%, emphasizing steady economic expansion and a stabilizing labor market.
• Key points: No clear guidance on rate cuts provided; inflation remains above target and needs continuous monitoring; economic data supports gradual policy adjustments.
• Market impact: Helps stabilize the stock market, but inflation concerns limit expectations for further easing, potentially suppressing upside for risk assets.

International Commodities

Escalating tensions in the Middle East push crude oil prices higher

• Iran conducts live-fire drills, and the U.S. military increases the deployment of destroyers, raising geopolitical risks and oil prices.
• Key points: WTI crude oil futures rise 3.50% to $65.42 per barrel; Brent crude rises 3.38% to $70.71 per barrel; spot gold rebounds to $5418 per ounce, erasing over $300 in losses.
• Market impact: The energy sector is supported, but increased global inflation pressure may affect the Federal Reserve's policy path and elevate demand for safe-haven assets.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump signs executive order to pressure countries supplying oil to Cuba

• The U.S. declares a national emergency, threatening tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba.
• Key points: Aims to push relevant countries to adjust policies to align with U.S. security goals; the order can be modified based on progress; also threatens a 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft.
• Market impact: Disrupts global energy trade patterns, increases supply chain uncertainty, and may amplify commodity price volatility and affect international relations.

U.S. Treasury does not designate any economy as a currency manipulator

• The Treasury strengthens foreign exchange practice reviews but does not accuse major trading partners of manipulating currencies.
• Key points: Thailand added to the monitoring list due to an expanding trade surplus; Japan, South Korea, and 10 other countries remain on the list; emphasizes preventing currency depreciation.
• Market impact: Eases some trade friction concerns, but enhanced monitoring may limit flexibility for emerging market currencies, supporting a relatively strong dollar.

Cryptocurrency structure bill passes, highlighting bipartisan divides

• The Senate Agriculture Committee passes the CLARITY Act, but all Democrats vote against it.
• Key points: The bill focuses on cryptocurrency market structure; amendments targeting Trump family interests were not passed; Bitcoin was affected and briefly fell below $84,000.
• Market impact: While advancing the regulatory framework, increasing partisan divides heighten uncertainty, potentially suppressing sentiment for crypto assets in the short term but benefiting compliant development in the long term.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Up 0.67%, rebounding to erase the previous day's sharp decline, entering a fluctuating upward channel.
• Spot Silver: Up 1.68%, strong technicals, resonating industrial demand and safe-haven sentiment.
• WTI Crude Oil: Down 0.17%, rising for three consecutive days, driven by geopolitical tensions with Iran and U.S. military deployments.
• Dollar Index: Up 0.28%, a weak dollar supports commodity rebounds, but the Federal Reserve's steady stance limits downside potential.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Down 5.83%, continuing to decline below the $84,000 mark, entering a low-level fluctuation.
• ETH: Down 6.00%, key support levels breached, ETF outflows intensify selling pressure.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Down 5% to $2.95 trillion, driven by weak tech stocks and leveraged liquidations.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Long positions dominate liquidations, totaling approximately $899 million in 24 hours.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 0.11%, stabilizing for consecutive days, supported by blue-chip stocks.
• S&P 500: Down 0.13%, retreating after nearing record highs, with increased volatility.
• Nasdaq: Down 0.72%, dragged down by the tech sector, with AI-related stocks showing mixed performance.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 9.99%, despite beating earnings expectations, high capital expenditures raise concerns.
• Meta Platforms (META): Up 10.40%, strong growth in advertising revenue boosts market confidence.
• Tesla (TSLA): Down 3.20%, lowered delivery expectations increase competitive pressure.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Up 0.52%, sustained AI demand supports chip business.
• Alphabet (GOOG): Up 0.71%, stable search and cloud services, reaching a new closing high.
• Apple (AAPL): Down 1.10%, market cautious ahead of earnings, supply chain challenges emerge.
• Amazon (AMZN): Down 2.00%, e-commerce growth slows, cost control becomes a focus. Overall, tech giants show mixed performance, primarily due to debates over AI investment returns and expenditures during earnings season, with Microsoft dragging down the sector while Meta provides support.

Sector Movement Observation

Software Sector down 6.50%

• Representative stocks: ServiceNow (NOW), down 9.80%; Salesforce (CRM), down 6.20%.
• Driving factors: Microsoft's earnings beat expectations, but high AI capital expenditures raise profit concerns, leading to a reevaluation of industry valuations.

Semiconductor Sector up 0.14%

• Representative stocks: Lam Research (LRCX), up 3.59%; KLA Corp (KLAC), up 3.53%.
• Driving factors: Strong ongoing demand for AI and chips, supply chain optimization, and technological advancements support the sector reaching historical highs.

Storage Sector up 0.2%

• Representative stocks: SanDisk (SNDK), up 2.21%; Seagate (STX), up 0.82%.
• Driving factors: Data center expansion and positive signals from earnings drive performance, partially offsetting market volatility.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Microsoft - Stock Price Plummets After Earnings

Event Overview: Microsoft released its quarterly earnings, with revenue and profit exceeding expectations, but AI-related capital expenditures surged to historical highs, raising investor concerns about short-term profit pressure, causing the stock price to drop over 10% intraday, closing down 9.99%. The company emphasized strong growth in Azure cloud services, but AI monetization progress fell short of expectations, putting pressure on the software sector overall. Market Interpretation: Institutional views are divided; Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating, believing in the long-term stability of AI leadership; Morgan Stanley lowers its target price, warning that spending growth may erode profit margins. Investment Insight: Short-term volatility presents buying opportunities, but attention should be paid to AI revenue conversion; diversifying tech stock allocations is recommended to mitigate single-event risks.

2. Meta Platforms - Strong Rebound in Advertising Business

Event Overview: Meta released its earnings, with advertising revenue exceeding expectations by 20%, benefiting from Reels and AI optimization, leading to increased user engagement and a stock price surge of 10.40%. Despite facing regulatory pressure, the company announced increased investment in the metaverse, but its core business remains robust, offsetting some weakness in tech stocks. Market Interpretation: Analysts are generally optimistic; Barclays upgraded its rating to overweight, emphasizing the recovery of the digital advertising market; UBS pointed out privacy regulation risks, but the growth potential driven by AI is significant. Investment Insight: The recovery of the advertising cycle is favorable for long-term holdings; investors should monitor user growth metrics as entry signals.

3. SanDisk - Earnings Exceed Expectations, Stock Soars

Event Overview: SanDisk reported strong quarterly results, benefiting from explosive demand for data storage and AI application expansion, with revenue growth of 15%, leading to a nearly 14% surge in after-hours stock price. The company optimized its supply chain and expanded capacity, benefiting the storage sector overall, but increased competition requires vigilance. Market Interpretation: Citigroup is optimistic, stating that its market share is expanding; Jefferies maintains a neutral stance, concerned about rising raw material costs. Investment Insight: Demand for AI infrastructure supports an upward trend; it is recommended to build positions during pullbacks and watch for industry acquisition opportunities.

4. IBM - Consulting Business Boosts Performance

Event Overview: IBM's stock rose nearly 5%, benefiting from strong demand for consulting and AI services, offsetting the drag from Microsoft. Earnings reports showed accelerated growth in cloud business, but the hardware division faces challenges, with total revenue meeting expectations. Market Interpretation: Institutions like Deutsche Bank raised their target prices, emphasizing opportunities in enterprise-level AI transformation; some analysts are concerned about intense competition. Investment Insight: Stable growth in enterprise services is worth noting; diversified allocations can reduce the impact of tech volatility.

5. OpenAI - Advancing IPO Plans for Q4

Event Overview: OpenAI is preparing for an IPO in Q4, having informally consulted with Wall Street banks and hired new executives to assist in preparations. The company's valuation has soared, but regulatory and competitive risks persist, benefiting the overall AI industry. Market Interpretation: Analysts are optimistic, expecting the IPO to stimulate the AI sector; some caution against potential valuation bubbles. Investment Insight: The IPO may trigger a thematic investment frenzy; it is advisable to track regulatory developments and avoid blindly chasing high valuations.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Moonbirds opens $birb claims, Nesting 2.0 is now live.

2. "1011 Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted on X platform, stating that multiple structural factors constrain ETH and BTC from rising with other risk assets, with the main reasons believed to be trading cycles, market microstructure, and potential market manipulation by certain exchanges, market makers, or speculative funds.

3. Metaplanet raises $137 million to expand Bitcoin reserves.

4. 21Shares issues Solana staking products based on JitoSOL in Europe, enhancing access in Europe.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• Trump announces nominee for Federal Reserve Chair: Morning - Watch for potential shifts in monetary policy and market reactions.
• OpenAI IPO preparation progress: All day - Track discussions with Wall Street banks and assess impacts on the AI sector.

Bitget Research Institute Insights:

U.S. stocks slightly retreated under the drag of Microsoft's earnings, but robust economic data supports rebounds, with expectations for U.S. equities to outperform overseas in 2026; precious metals like gold see increased volatility, with silver prices rebounding strongly after a decline driven by industrial demand; short-term risks of oversupply in crude oil remain; a slight decline in the dollar aids commodity rebounds; the cryptocurrency market faces pressure with BTC and ETH down over 5%, and leveraged liquidations reaching $319 million, with analysts warning that short-term risk aversion dominates, but clearer regulations like Project Crypto may boost long-term confidence. Goldman Sachs recommends buying gold on dips, while Morgan Stanley is optimistic about a U.S. stock recovery.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.