Ray Dalio: The United States is on the brink of the fifth stage of the "big cycle," facing the risks of civil war and order collapse

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, published a lengthy analysis on social media, warning that the United States is in the fifth stage of his "Big Cycle" theory (the eve of order collapse), with multiple indicators suggesting that society may slide into the sixth stage (civil war and order collapse). His core judgments are based on:

• Deteriorating finances and conflicts: High government deficits and rising debt, along with historical highs in wealth and value gaps, constitute a "classic deadly combination."
• Populism and extremism: Increased political polarization, the silencing of moderates, media becoming a tool for partisan struggle, and the "loss of truth" in the public sphere.
• Escalation of violent incidents: Recent deaths of protesters in Minneapolis and conflicts between federal and state governments are typical signs of transitioning to the sixth stage.
• Systemic dysfunction: Legal and political systems are increasingly used as weapons in struggles, with rules giving way to the logic of "winning at all costs."

Ray Dalio stated that the current situation is highly similar to the early period of order reorganization from 1930 to 1945. If consensus cannot be built through leadership and painful but necessary reforms are not implemented, society may repeat the mistakes of civil war/revolution. Investors and policymakers should recognize the forces of the cycle, promote productivity-oriented reforms (education, infrastructure, research), and replace "zero-sum struggle" with "win-win cooperation" to avoid an irreversible collapse of the system. Although the trajectory is difficult to change, it is still possible and necessary to mitigate conflicts and reshape broad prosperity through wise choices before sliding into the sixth stage.