Wintermute: Bitcoin is trapped in a 60-day range, and record ETF outflows indicate selling pressure in the U.S

According to market news, the price of Bitcoin has been trapped in the range of $85,000 to $94,000 for 60 days, with recent selling pressure in the U.S. market becoming a key factor in the dominant direction.

Although Bitcoin attempted to rise to $97,000 at the beginning of January, it lacked subsequent buying support, causing the price to fall back to the mid-range. Market momentum is closely related to ETF capital flows: the strong performance in January was accompanied by robust ETF inflows, while the subsequent pullback corresponded to record outflows of BTC and ETH ETFs. At the same time, the Coinbase premium turned into a discount, further confirming that U.S. counterparties are net sellers, indicating that the inflow of institutional capital (through ETFs, corporate treasuries, etc.) has turned negative, putting pressure on the market.

Analysts believe that to effectively break through the range, it is necessary to observe whether the ETF capital flows and Coinbase premium can turn positive. Only when both of these indicators reverse can the market truly break through the mid-level of $90,000. This week's intensive macro events may serve as a catalyst to break the deadlock, including: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's speech, earnings reports from tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple), progress in tariff negotiations, as well as potential dollar/yen intervention and government shutdown risks.

Gold continues to set historical highs, while Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative has not yet shown the same safe-haven appeal in the current market environment. In summary, before the range is effectively broken, close attention should be paid to the $85,000 support level and the direction of ETF capital flows. The 60-day consolidation coinciding with intensive macro risk events means the market is about to choose a direction.