The "Ultimate Simulation" of the smartest people in Silicon Valley: What should we go "All-In" on in 2026?

Written by: Frank, Maitong MSX Research Institute

At the beginning of 2026, the world stands at an extremely divided crossroads.

On one side, inflation is retreating, AI is accelerating its penetration, and capital markets are stirring; on the other side, there are geopolitical frictions, rising institutional uncertainties, and widespread skepticism about whether "the next round of growth truly exists." Against this backdrop, the globally influential tech business podcast All-In Podcast released its annual ultimate predictions:

Hosted by renowned Silicon Valley angel investor (early investor in Uber and Robinhood) Jason Calacanis, it invited heavyweight guests including "King of SPACs" Chamath, "Science Sultan" David Friedberg, and David Sacks, who is referred to as the first "AI and cryptocurrency czar" of the White House.

This group of top minds, controlling hundreds of billions of dollars and deeply understanding the logic of power and capital operations, engaged in a fiery debate around politics, technology, investment, and geopolitical patterns------from California's wealth tax crisis to a 6% GDP growth expectation, from optimism about Huawei/predictive markets to the astonishing hypothesis that SpaceX might merge with Tesla, and more.

Maitong MSX Research Institute has distilled the core viewpoints from their intellectual collision for readers.

"11 Major Predictions" from 4 Titans

Source: Organized by AI from raw images

Regarding California's wealth tax and capital outflow risks, they believe:

• Chamath Palihapitiya: The circle has clearly chosen to leave California, with a combined net worth of hundreds of billions of dollars, which poses a substantial impact on California's long-term finances;
• David Friedberg: This proposal is unlikely to be genuinely implemented, but it has exposed structural pressures on local finances;
• David Sacks: The wealth tax is the direct reason I left California; even if it doesn't pass in 2026, everyone expects some version to return in 2028;

Regarding the biggest business winners of 2026, they believe:

• Jason Calacanis: Optimistic about Amazon, which will be the first to reach the "enterprise singularity," becoming the first company where robots contribute more profit than humans; its automated warehouses and logistics network have built a significant moat;
• Chamath Palihapitiya: Choosing copper, as geopolitical and supply chain security will lead to long-term supply-demand imbalances; at the current pace, by 2040, there will be about a 70% gap in global copper supply;
• David Friedberg: Optimistic about Huawei and predictive markets (PM); the former continues to break through in technology systems, while the latter is evolving from a niche product into a new type of infrastructure for information and price discovery, which may see an explosion this year;
• David Sacks: 2026 will be a big year for IPOs, as "Trump prosperity" restarts the capital market expansion cycle, with a large number of companies successfully going public, creating trillions of dollars in new market value; he also agrees with Jason Calacanis's assessment of Amazon, but for different reasons (not elaborated);

Regarding the biggest business losers of 2026, they believe:

• Jason Calacanis: The most impacted will be young white-collar workers in the U.S., as entry-level positions are prioritized for replacement by AI and automation;
• Chamath Palihapitiya: The "maintenance and migration" revenue model of enterprise-level SaaS will be systematically compressed under the impact of AI;
• David Friedberg: State government finances, pension liabilities, and solvency issues will be prominently exposed;
• David Sacks: California, as regulatory and tax uncertainties will continue to squeeze capital and businesses;

Regarding the most significant transaction forms of 2026, they believe:

• Jason Calacanis: There will be a merger of an AI giant exceeding $50 billion;
• Chamath Palihapitiya: Traditional mergers will give way to large-scale IP licensing collaborations, which will become more common and mature in 2026;
• David Friedberg: Conflict resolution at the geopolitical level will be the "biggest deal," with the Russia-Ukraine conflict possibly being resolved this year;
• David Sacks: Optimistic about the explosion of coding assistants and tool use sectors;

Regarding the boldest reverse predictions for 2026, they believe:

• Jason Calacanis: U.S.-China relations will see substantial easing, with both sides reaching a win-win working relationship;
• Chamath Palihapitiya: Two reverse predictions: one is that SpaceX will not IPO but may merge with Tesla; the other is that central banks will build a new paradigm of sovereign cryptocurrencies (different from BTC);
• David Friedberg: If the turmoil in Iran continues to deepen, it may instead exacerbate instability in the Middle East;
• David Sacks: AI will become an employment expander rather than a job creator, and we are likely to see job growth;

Regarding the best-performing assets of 2026, they believe:

• Jason Calacanis: Optimistic about speculative and platform assets, in an environment where the economy is about to take off, interest rates may be lowered, and people will have more disposable income to gamble and speculate;
• Chamath Palihapitiya: Continuing to bet on a basket of key metals, including copper;
• David Friedberg: Predictive markets are replacing the functions of traditional media and markets, with huge potential;
• David Sacks: Choosing the technology expansion supercycle;

Regarding the worst-performing assets of 2026, they believe:

• Jason Calacanis: The dollar will continue to be under pressure;
• Chamath Palihapitiya: Judging that oil is entering a long-term downward channel, possibly dropping to $45 per barrel;
• David Friedberg: Bearish on Netflix and traditional media stocks;
• David Sacks: Bearish on California's high-end real estate;

Regarding the most anticipated trends of 2026, they believe:

• Jason Calacanis: The IPO market will see the return of kings, with at least two giants among SpaceX, Anthropic, or OpenAI submitting IPO applications this year;
• Chamath Palihapitiya: Anticipating the expansion of "Trumpism," unilateralism, and economic resilience, which is a huge trend that will result in significant GDP growth;
• David Friedberg: The deepening situation in Iran will lead to a reshaping of the Middle Eastern landscape;
• David Sacks: Auditing government spending at all levels, normalizing the "decentralized DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)" to let the public see where the money is being spent;

Regarding the biggest political winners of 2026:

• Jason Calacanis: Young leftist politicians;
• Chamath Palihapitiya: Anti-waste, anti-bureaucratic political forces;
• David Friedberg: Democratic Socialists (DSA), who are occupying the Democratic Party, a trend that will be solidified in 2026;
• David Sacks: "Trump prosperity," predicting a rate cut of 75 to 100 basis points in June;

Regarding the biggest political losers of 2026:

• Jason Calacanis: Centrist Democrats;
• Chamath Palihapitiya: Monroe Doctrine------because Trumpism has surpassed it;
• David Friedberg: The tech industry is becoming a common target for populism from both the left and right;
• David Sacks: Centrist Democrats;

Predictions for the U.S. GDP growth rate in 2026:

• Chamath Palihapitiya: The lower limit is 5%, and the upper limit is 6.2%;
• David Friedberg: 4.6%;
• David Sacks: 5%;

In Conclusion

Today, China also announced its national economic performance for 2025, with a GDP size of 140.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, achieving its target as scheduled.

If we broaden our perspective to the global coordinate system and consider exchange rate factors for the next one to two years, we will find that the GDP gap between China and the U.S. (measured in dollars), which was once widened in the first two years, seems to be showing subtle signs of narrowing significantly at this juncture.

This reflection is quite thought-provoking: on one side is China, seeking high-quality growth amid structural adjustments; on the other side is the U.S., as described by All-In Podcast, attempting to forcibly leap out of a period of mediocre growth through "Trump prosperity + AI singularity."

It can be said that the only two major economies in the world are simultaneously entering a re-competition phase centered on productivity and structural efficiency. It is against this backdrop that Chamath Palihapitiya's remark in the program becomes particularly provocative: "Don't short the U.S. economy; it is ready to take off, and 6% GDP growth is not a fantasy."

But the premise is that in this year of accelerated reshuffling, you must stand on the side of productivity, not on the side of being eliminated.

Perhaps this is the most important question in this cycle.

Let us encourage each other.