The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 97.2%

Jan 14, 2026 06:02:40

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According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 26.8%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 72.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 0.7%.

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