"Four-year cycle" is no longer a universal formula? Bybit releases 2026 cryptocurrency outlook report

The research department of the cryptocurrency exchange Bybit today released the report "2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook." The report suggests that data indicates the traditional Bitcoin "four-year cycle" analysis framework may not be directly applicable to the current market.

Core points of the report:

• Macroeconomic Environment: Expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing policy may support risk assets, and Bitcoin may re-establish a positive correlation with U.S. stocks.
• Market Expectations: Data from the options market shows that the implied probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of the year is 10.3%.
• Structural Changes: Increased institutional participation, improved regulatory frameworks, and macroeconomic support may break traditional cyclical patterns.
• Key Risks: Adjustments to the MSCI index in mid-January and tightening of the Bank of Japan's policies may trigger market volatility.

The report points out that the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) will become a key theme in 2026, with the application of stablecoins continuing to expand among regulatory bodies. Although market cycles and volatility remain characteristics of the crypto market, the trend towards institutionalization is changing the traditional price formation mechanisms.

The full report can be downloaded from the Bybit website.