Raging Currents and a Lonely Boat: Challenges and Strategies in a Great Era

I originally thought that after the attack at Bondi Beach, Sydney's New Year's fireworks would be more subdued this year. However, from what I saw on social media, people still gathered to watch the fireworks, counted down, and cheered as usual. If even Sydney is so carefree, it goes without saying that other places are the same. Indeed, I later saw people around the world welcoming the arrival of the New Year 2026 in various ways. Although the saying "each year after 2019 is worse than the last" is popular, whether in customs or hopes, people still wish for a fresh start in the New Year.

The year 2025 has not been great for the world; in any case, let's hope it passes quickly.

The world is transitioning from a minor era to a major era. The minor era is calm, sweetly mediocre, soft and light, with established rules. People chase mundane happiness within it, with short-sightedness, shallow thinking, and a lack of will, behaving frivolously. The major era, on the other hand, is turbulent, with unpredictable waves, hard and heavy, where rules can be rewritten at any time, boundaries are often unclear, and conflicts are intense. A large number of ambitious, deep-thinking, and resilient heroes emerge, but the cost is the chaos, anxiety, and certain decline of ordinary people.

Whenever such a transition occurs, people tend to hesitate for a while, inevitably harboring various fantasies during this period. Is the situation really like this? Is it irretrievable? Is there some genius who can reverse all contradictions and conflicts, allowing us to relive "yesterday once more"? Psychologist Elizabeth Kubler-Ross summarized the psychological process people go through when facing pain into five stages: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. In the first three stages, people refuse to truly accept reality and hope for the world to roll back.

World War I was like this, which is why countries slid into the August gunfire with skepticism. World War II was the same, which is why Chamberlain repeatedly indulged Hitler in appeasement. The Cold War was likewise, which is why Truman made a series of naive judgments in Eastern Europe, Greece, India, and East Asia, digging a pit that civilization would take hundreds of years to fill. People need a series of signals to confirm before reluctantly stepping into the major era.

I believe the significance of 2025 is confirmation. Nothing earth-shattering really happened this year, but after this year, everyone confirmed that the world has entered a new phase. Even the dullest and most stubborn people no longer deny this, nor do they fantasize about returning to the "Great Harmony Era."

The "Great Harmony Era" is a term used by Western historians to describe the recently passed minor era. There is still debate about the start and end of this era, but the general consensus is that it began in the mid-1980s, during China's reform and opening-up and the Soviet Union's "new thinking," and ended at the end of 2019. These thirty-plus years were a golden period in human history, with relative peace, rapid technological development, and a general consensus among people's ideas. Economic globalization, the internet, and Hollywood movies connected the world, and people focused on economic development and personal struggle, cooperating freely to make money, rarely entangled in ideological debates, and certainly not viewing each other as enemies under political propaganda. Those born between 1980 and 2010 might think the world has always been this way and should be this way, but they will soon realize that such an era is as rare as the "governance" periods in Chinese history. Meanwhile, those born in the '60s and '70s, along with their living predecessors, will have the fortune to experience two Cold Wars in their lifetime. I am a '70s baby, and if this Cold War lasts as long as the last one, unless breakthroughs in longevity technology occur and become widespread, most of my peers will likely not see the arrival of the next era, but will only reminisce about "the prosperous days of the Kaiyuan era, when small towns still housed thousands of families."

Now, we are undoubtedly in the midst of a turbulent era. The old order is ending, while the new order has yet to be established. Various major and minor trends are coming quickly and fiercely, but the direction remains unclear. Worse still, although the forward direction is uncertain, four forces are definitively pulling us down to the riverbed.

The first is great power competition.

The competition between China and the United States has become an overarching macro framework, coloring this era. Now, when you consider anything, you must first confront this issue. In the past, the world was one family; the more open the opportunities, the broader the international paths. You could take American venture capital to tap into the Chinese market, obtain an American degree to enter state-owned enterprises, and invest the money earned in China into U.S. stocks. But now, the situation is completely different; you must make a choice. Different choices mean entirely different external assumptions and path planning, leading to completely different costs, risks, and opportunity costs. Choosing one path closes off all others; do not entertain thoughts of "playing both sides" or "gaining from both ends." Understand the boundaries and consequences of your actions, and avoid crossing red lines that could lead to disruptive outcomes.

The second is the information war.

In a sense, this is a direct consequence of great power competition.

During the previous Great Harmony Era, people often compared China and the U.S. to a marriage. At that time, this analogy might not have been very appropriate, but now the states of both sides truly resemble a couple that has just divorced, living in chaos but maintaining a tough exterior. The economic fundamentals of both sides are in disarray, so they both focus on narrative. The highlights in each other's economies are all built on narratives, and even statistical data is no longer reliable.

Once narrative becomes a means of competition, whether through official media guidance or grassroots emotional accumulation, it inevitably evolves into an information war. This is marked by the emergence of a large number of new internet celebrities engaged in narrative fraud, forming an entire industrial chain of narrative fraud content. The West has various conspiracy theories, while the East has various pseudo-historical theories. The result is that although everyone lives in the same time and space, they have completely different historical narratives and perceptions of reality.

Some people are outraged by this phenomenon and criticize it vehemently, hoping for a moral awakening and a return to righteousness. However, I must say that information warfare is an inevitable norm in competitive times. We are still in the early stages; in the future, it will become more intense, more abstract, more fragmented, and more bizarre and incomprehensible. There is nothing anyone can do about it. What you can do is make every effort to avoid becoming a victim of the information war, to prevent yourself from becoming a bitter and prejudiced fool, and to avoid being dragged down into the abyss by such fools.

The third is short videos.

So far, short videos are the most irresponsible invention of humanity in the 21st century, and even after the advent of AGI, they remain a strong contender for this title. I am not here to discuss the core role of short videos in the information war and the narrative fraud industry chain, but purely to point out their destructive impact on individual and collective brain functions. Now, if you are willing to do a little research or AI studies, you will find that many mainstream brain science research institutions have confirmed that addiction to short videos is functionally and structurally very similar to the destructive effects of drugs on the brain. Long-term addiction to short videos can hijack the ventral striatum, which is responsible for rewards, and decrease the gray matter density in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, which is responsible for attention, leading to atrophy in the prefrontal cortex that governs rational decision-making and self-control.

This means that short videos are essentially feeding the brain poison, resulting in brain function damage and even organic disease. "Brain rot" is the word of the year for the Oxford Dictionary in 2024, originally referring to the phenomenon of long-term immersion in algorithm-driven low-quality fragmented content, leading to brain dysfunction, loss of deep thinking ability, and structural degradation of cognitive function. However, I prefer to use this term to describe a state of being—like a brain crushed into fragments by short videos.

From my own observations and experiences, the damage caused by short video addiction to a person's IQ, rationality, and willpower is decisive. Once someone becomes addicted to short videos, that person is essentially done for.

The fourth is AI.

The impact of AI on careers and employment is now a hot topic, and there have already been many brilliant discussions on it. I just want to add three points.

First, the change in the welfare curve brought by AI for humanity is initially downward, then upward. In other words, the impact of AI on most people's employment and income precedes the general economic growth and social welfare it brings. Only survivors will have the opportunity to enjoy the benefits brought by AI.

Second, many people believe that by diligently learning AI skills and becoming AI experts, they can gain an advantage in the AI revolution or even achieve a comeback. This is mostly a fantasy, essentially a futile attempt to relieve panic and anxiety. Not to mention the vision of equality under AGI, given the current pace of AI development and industry concentration, the vast majority of AI experts are not significantly different from ordinary users. Moreover, "revolutions tend to devour their own children," and a purely AI expert may become one of the earliest victims under the relentless advance of AI.

Finally, I place AI at the end of the four forces because, under the drag of the first three forces, the vast majority of people have already capsized, leaving no room for AI to strike.

Among the four challenges, the first and fourth belong to structural changes of the era; the second and third are more like your internal defenses being breached. The external environment is deteriorating, and the internal system is regressing; this is the challenge we face.

The text published in the New Year is, as usual, meant to leave hope. Although I believe that the vast majority of people, including myself, cannot escape these four blows, we can still rationally analyze countermeasures. Unfortunately, as I mentioned, everyone is currently in their own turbulence, with different circumstances and conditions, making it difficult to reach any universal consensus, so it is almost like each person is in their own lonely boat. What we can do is to form our own judgments as much as possible, master key skills, and steer our small boats well, first ensuring that our boats do not capsize, and then seeking opportunities to sail and break the waves.

The New Year is a good time for reflection and rebooting. Below are the countermeasures I have devised for my own situation, which can also be seen as self-criticism and self-expectation, hoping to provide some reference for you.

First, calmly recognize your true self, no longer swayed by "how I want to be," but rather objectively using indicators to locate your strengths and weaknesses. In a major era, your one-sided preferences are not important; what matters is what you are actually good at. An effective method is to review what you have repeatedly accomplished over the past few years, relying mainly on yourself (rather than platforms), and what you have repeatedly failed at. This may reveal your true comparative advantages and disadvantages. Setting goals must be based on this.

Second, develop the habit of second-order thinking, which means not only being able to think critically but also actively examining and critiquing the quality of your own thinking. Second-order thinking is a meta-skill repeatedly emphasized by investment expert Howard Marks. Most people's thinking is one-dimensional, with only one voice in their heads saying, "I think." Second-order thinking requires separating out a "you" that calmly observes and examines the "you" that is thinking, sharply questioning yourself: Why do you think that? What people, viewpoints, or personal experiences are influencing your judgment? Do you have evidence? What variables have you overlooked? If you are wrong, where is the most likely mistake? Second-order thinking is a powerful tool and a superior quality.

Third, always think about the purpose first, prioritize tasks, and focus on important matters. A particularly important habit of second-order thinking is to examine the meaning and value of things themselves. Due to work reasons, I have been able to interact with many self-made successful individuals. I find that the most visible difference between them and ordinary people is their strong sense of purpose; before doing anything, they always ask why and place great importance on prioritizing tasks, eliminating those that can be skipped. Many people rely on assistants to strictly manage their time and energy, but more rely on self-discipline. I even have a hypothesis that, under similar conditions, this thinking habit may be the most important single factor determining differences between people.

Fourth, find a suitable small environment, physically immerse yourself in this small environment as much as possible, seek more consensus and collaborators, and gain advantages from information asymmetry. Do not trust your own willpower and abilities too much, nor believe in the myth that everything is the same in the internet age. Whatever you do, you must go to the geographical center of that activity to fully understand the information gap benefits. Information asymmetry is the biggest factor determining your achievements.

Fifth, be as vigilant against narrative fraud as you are against telecom fraud. I remember when there was no telecom fraud, people would assume that a stranger on the phone was genuine and what they said was true. Later, with the rise of telecom fraud, people's attitudes towards calls and messages completely reversed; they now assume that any unverifiable information is fraudulent. As the information war escalates, we may soon need to repeat this process: when faced with any unverified information in the media or any seductive viewpoints, we should first assume it is narrative fraud and then seek evidence to confirm it. In this context, finding and locking in reliable information sources becomes an extremely important efficiency tool.

Sixth, consciously exercise and adjust behaviors to overcome short video addiction, combat brain rot, and restore brain function. From my own experience, overcoming short video addiction is not just a matter of awareness but primarily a matter of ability, even a physical condition, requiring a series of adjustments and coordination of physical conditions and behavioral patterns. For me, a certain intensity of physical exercise, planned fasting, meditation, long periods of reading substantial works, and handwritten reading notes help me quickly break free from short video addiction. Setting limits on video app usage, prohibiting listening to audio while engaging in slow thinking, reading books instead of looking at my phone before bed, and especially not bringing my phone into the bedroom must be strictly adhered to.

Seventh, shift from the consumption side to the supply side, continuously output content. Although I detest short videos, I am well aware that they are an unstoppable trend; no matter how much you oppose it, the vast majority of people will inevitably pay the price. Given this, we can only consider how to save ourselves, or even think about how to change the dynamics, turning the blade of short videos outward, making others the prey while we become the predators. I believe the approach is simple: create content. If you only watch and do not write, your mind will fill with fragments, becoming increasingly chaotic; but as long as you force yourself to write a page of notes, create a diagram, record a voice message, or even produce a short video explaining a particular issue, that sense of control will gradually return. As long as you continue to create content, your brain will slowly restore its compounding mechanism. In a sense, short videos have divided humanity into predators and prey; we cannot change this rule, but the only thing we can do is to transform from prey into predators.

Eighth, hone AI skills anchored in delivering results rather than art. Many people have turned AI learning into an art competition, showcasing the content they create using AI on social media and comparing the sophistication, realism, and novelty of their outputs. I believe that AI art will undoubtedly become a very important branch in the future, but for most people, this may lead them down a wrong path. This reminds me of my early years learning programming, where I often liked to showcase my coding skills on forums, comparing whose code was more elegant and who had a deeper understanding of certain language techniques, turning it into an art form. While this is not without meaning and should be a taste that every aspiring programmer possesses, we must recognize that the fundamental goal of software development is still to construct software with practical value. Similarly, the purpose of learning AI today is to deliver quality results, not to create art. Recently, a "Kenyan AI paper-writing gunman" has become popular online, and his approach to using AI is markedly different from others; he does not use AI to directly output text but instead uses it to assist his understanding of the topic, learn relevant materials, and then manually write the paper. According to many people's standards for evaluating AI capabilities, his AI skills may not be the strongest, but the quality of the results he submits is the best, making him stand out among many "gunmen," living in a luxury house on the outskirts of Shanghai. In my view, his AI usage skills surpass those of "AI experts" who are fixated on fine-tuning prompts and automating text generation. Focusing on delivering the best results is the right path to enhancing AI application skills.

Ninth, learn and practice on-chain value investing. Recently, I have interacted with some people in the AI and robotics industries and found that after prolonged negative media coverage and even stigmatization, the understanding of this technology and industry among those outside the blockchain sector has become completely distorted, even leading to ignorance or prejudice regarding some globally impactful matters. This is actually a significant information asymmetry and holds enormous opportunities. In fact, the U.S. "Market Structure Bill" is likely to pass in the first quarter of 2026. Within a few years, the scale of on-chain RWA assets could soar from hundreds of billions to tens of trillions of dollars. In this era of neighborly competition, blockchain continues the narrative of financial globalization, becoming an economic oasis. People will be able to purchase various assets on the blockchain. This change will also shift blockchain from a speculative market to a value investment platform, where the investment logic, tools, and service systems of traditional finance will be rapidly established on-chain. "Accessibility" will no longer be an issue; cognitive and investment skills will become the key limiting factors. This is one of the few opportunities in this era that ordinary people can grasp.