The next trillion-dollar track? Predicting the truth and future trends of the market explosion | MyToken AMA Industry LinkedIn in-depth analysis

At the end of 2025 in the crypto world, a new track is taking over from Meme, continuously attracting capital and attention: the prediction market.
In response, the well-known blockchain data platform MyToken held an online AMA on Christmas Eve 2025, inviting multiple analysts, traders, and project representatives to conduct an in-depth analysis from three dimensions: growth logic, future trends, and participation methodology.

Guest Introduction

• Jonathan Chee (@jonathanchee315): BD head and VP of @CCACC_hub, which is a legally recognized Web3 professional legal/tax and investment incubation institution in Malaysia.

• Brian Lau(@BrianLauQuedic): Ambassador of the decentralized AI public chain SAC.

• ZC (@ZhanweiC): KOL focusing on prediction markets.

• Christine (@ChristineKTX): CMO of KTX Exchange, which is a trading platform aimed at professional traders while being friendly to beginners. Recently launched on-chain trading tools, dedicated to empowering retail investors.

• Hickerzed (@YOMIRGO): Ambassador of YOMIRGO.

Perspective One: Brian Lau ------ The "Three Layers Theory" of Growth Engines and a Structured Future
The prediction market is expected to achieve an average annual compound growth rate of 35%-50% between 2023 and 2025. The guests unanimously agreed that this is not a coincidence. Brian systematically dissected the driving forces behind the high compound growth rate and proposed a clear three-layer structure:

1. Event-Driven Layer: Global focal events such as the U.S. elections and the World Cup bring tremendous traffic and attention to the prediction market. These events are highly uncertain and have strong public participation, providing continuous fuel for traffic and attention, making the prediction market a "real golden line" for measuring public expectations.

2. Product Maturity Layer: Early prediction markets faced issues such as complicated settlement, poor liquidity, and unsatisfactory user experience. In recent years, with capital support, trading matching, market making, and settlement paths have been greatly optimized, transforming it from a "one-time toy" into a trading category that users can continuously engage with.

3. Value Elevation Layer: When Bloomberg, top research institutions, and even politicians begin to cite prediction market probability data as analytical references, its nature has evolved from a mere application to a credible "decentralized data layer." This recognition from the traditional world brings a breaking-the-circle effect and scale amplification.

For 2026, he predicts that the market will enter a "structured growth" phase, presenting a triple differentiation of platforms, assets, and regions, where compliant, clear, and liquid categories will prevail.
Perspective Two: ZC ------ The "Flywheel Effect" and the Breaking Circle Power of Media Citation
ZC vividly summarized the core of prediction market growth with the term "flywheel effect." He emphasized that prediction probabilities have an inherent demand. When Trump or CNN cites prediction market data, it itself is a powerful free promotion, continuously "invading" new industries (such as macro analysis and sports betting). This effect is particularly evident in the crypto circle—almost all top KOLs are citing prediction market data to support their views, occupying a significant share of mental space.
He believes that growth in 2026 will continue to be dominated by leading projects because they can gain the most media exposure and citations, forming a "stronger becomes stronger" cycle. The core growth metric is not trading volume, but how many external authoritative institutions adopt its data.
Perspective Three: Christine ------ The "Double-Edged Sword" of Compliance and Institutional Entry
From the perspective of KTX Exchange, Christine first introduced the trend of integrating on-chain and off-chain trading at KTX, and then focused on analyzing the profound impacts brought by the compliance process. She cited Coinbase's acquisition of a prediction market team as an example, pointing out that the entry of traditional financial giants will greatly enhance the maturity and scale of the market, but it will also raise the entrepreneurial threshold, leading to a decrease in market quantity and concentration at the top.
She noted that the core advantage of prediction markets over traditional gambling lies in "transparency and fairness" (market pricing rather than odds set by the house). With the opening of compliant fiat channels, it will attract a large number of traditional gambling users to migrate, which is an important aspect of future growth.
Perspective Four: Hickerzed ------ The "Social Necessity" and Cognitive Game in the Post-Truth Era
Hickerzed's speech was filled with philosophical and sociological insights. He sharply pointed out that the explosion of prediction markets is deeply rooted in the "post-truth era" where people have an extreme thirst for real information. When AI-generated fake news and media bias run rampant, people no longer trust free opinions, but instead trust the consensus formed by betting real money.
He described the prediction market as a "cognitive crushing game." Retail investors profit not by luck, but by insights that surpass the market average; losses are priced against their own ignorance or biases. Participating in it is the ultimate test of one's judgment.
Perspective Five: Jonathan ------ The Three Hard Barriers to a "Trillion Market"
Jonathan calmly outlined the barriers that prediction markets must overcome to move from a hundred billion to a trillion:

4. Oracles and Trustworthy Settlement: How event outcomes are judged fairly and transparently is the cornerstone of technological trust.

5. Real-World Interface Capability: It must be deeply embedded in the decision-making processes of media, enterprises, and governments, not just a self-entertainment within the crypto circle.

6. Shift in Social Consensus: It needs to be widely accepted by mainstream society as an "information tool," completely shedding the stigma of "disguised gambling."

2026 Outlook: Structured Growth and Head Effect
Moreover, regarding the trend of prediction markets in 2026, the guests showed a high degree of consensus: growth will continue but will enter a "structured growth" phase, with increasing differentiation.

• Stronger Becomes Stronger: Leading projects will attract the vast majority of incremental users and funds due to brand effects, media citations, and deeper liquidity, with a significant Matthew effect.

• Segmented Tracks and Compliance: The market will develop towards more compliant and clearer rules. At the same time, prediction categories will become more segmented, extending from macro politics to sports, entertainment, and even daily life (such as "Will it rain at a certain concert?"), penetrating more circles.

• Infrastructure Integration: Prediction markets may further serve as "backend protocols" embedded in broader Web3 or even Web2 applications, lowering participation barriers and enhancing usability.

Consensus and Warnings: A Survival Manual for Retail Investors
Despite the diverse perspectives, all guests reached a high degree of consensus on the advice for retail investors:

• Participate, but not as gambling: View it as a tool to exercise information analysis skills, not a shortcut to wealth.

• Avoid Three Major Risks:

• Information Asymmetry: Stay away from areas easily manipulated by insiders (such as certain niche coin events).

• Rules and Liquidity Traps: Be sure to understand the details and avoid prediction markets with poor liquidity.

• Heat Reversal: When market probabilities are heavily skewed (e.g., as high as 90%), the odds are no longer attractive.

• Strategy Suggestions: Start small, choose the most transparent and mainstream events, maintain independent research, and manage positions well.

This AMA clearly reveals that the prediction market is at a critical point: on one side is a trillion-level blue ocean connecting traditional and crypto, reshaping information credibility; on the other side are many real challenges such as regulation, manipulation, and liquidity. It is no longer a simple track, but a complex prism observing how finance, technology, and social psychology intertwine.