Metrics Ventures Market Observation: Chaotic Consolidation Continues

Author: Metrics Ventures

Metrics Ventures December Market Observation Guide

1/ As we approach the end of 2025, I would like to wish all MVC friends a happy double holiday! Looking back, 2025 has been a cold year for crypto investments, with the annual return rate of crypto assets ranking at the bottom in the dollar market, primarily due to the collapse in Q4. As the year comes to a close, I hope everyone can take advantage of the dull market to rest and prepare for a resurgence in the coming year.

2/ The market in the past month has not presented anything particularly noteworthy for analysis; it remains in a lifeless chaotic state, with trading volumes continuously shrinking on CEX and the NYSE, and volatility converging. The exchange of chips within the current narrow range is nearing its end. What makes it even more difficult for high-frequency traders is that this shrinkage shows no signs of a turning point in the short term, and terms like "flash crash" are likely to become the main theme in the near future. This period may be more suitable for rest and systematic reflection on the market.

Overview and Commentary on Overall Market Trends

Compared to the crypto market, the main focus of the capital market in the past month has been on precious metals. The anticipated Q4 market has indeed occurred, but it has been dominated by silver—currently, the monthly trading volume of silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has exceeded 750 billion RMB, and the options positions on COMEX are several times the market's actual inventory. This madness reminds one of the crypto market in 2020-2021, while Bitcoin's sluggish state is lamentable. Specifically, since October, the relative price strength of gold to Bitcoin has also broken through the long-term downward range since the easing in 2020, making this high-level capital rotation more intuitive.

Image: Gold and Bitcoin Price Exchange Rate

Of course, there are still some positive signals in the market. MSTR has managed to retain its position in the NASDAQ100 index, the Federal Reserve Chair has provided clearer guidance, and the potential crisis of the AI bubble all support the market outlook for 2026. Standing at the end of 2025, we still believe this is a continuation of the year-long consolidation that began at the end of 2024. In times of wide price fluctuations, there will always be tides of rise and fall; now is the time to conserve energy and prepare.

This month's report is relatively brief, which aligns with our belief that it is a suitable time for rest. Once again, I wish everyone a happy double holiday, and we will see you in 2026!