AllianceDAO Co-founder: Stablecoin payments are unlikely to replace card organizations like Visa in the short term

AllianceDAO co-founder QwQiao posted on platform X, stating that some opinions suggest that new payment rails like stablecoins are expected to replace card organizations such as Visa and Mastercard. The reasoning is that merchants bear about 3% of the card processing costs, but this judgment overlooks the cost distribution structure. It points out that in a $100 transaction with approximately $3 in fees, about $1.8 is returned to consumers in the form of cashback or points, about $0.45 goes to the issuing bank, about $0.6 goes to the acquiring bank, and the card organization only receives about $0.15. QwQiao indicates that this structure creates a stable incentive relationship among consumers, banks, and card organizations within the same network, while the related costs are mainly borne by merchants with relatively weaker bargaining power. This is also one of the important reasons why traditional card payment networks have maintained economies of scale over the long term.