Bitwise: Bitcoin will reach a new high in 2026, the halving effect has greatly weakened, and the occurrence of 10.11 has reduced the likelihood of a major market crash

Cryptocurrency investment firm and index fund manager Bitwise believes that even after a slump over the past two months, Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high again in 2026. The company's CEO Matt Hougan stated that Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, where three years of significant gains are followed by a year of deep correction.

According to this cyclical pattern, 2026 should be a correction year. However, we believe this will not happen. In our view, the core forces that have historically driven the four-year cycle—Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and the boom and bust of the crypto market driven by leverage—have significantly weakened compared to past cycles.

Halving effect: By definition, each subsequent Bitcoin halving is only half as significant as the previous one. Interest rate environment: Interest rates rose sharply in 2018 and 2022, suppressing prices; however, we expect rates to decline in 2026. Risk of bubble burst: Following the record liquidations in October 2025, the relative contraction of leverage and improved regulation have reduced the likelihood of a major market crash.

More importantly, the wave of institutional funds that began after the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024 will accelerate in 2026. At that time, platforms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch will begin asset allocation. Meanwhile, the crypto market is expected to start benefiting from the pro-crypto regulatory shift following the 2024 U.S. elections, with Wall Street and fintech companies beginning to truly adopt cryptocurrencies. It is anticipated that the combined effects of these factors will drive Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high.