Polymarket: The probability of Waller becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair has surpassed that of Hassett, rising to first place

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has overtaken Kevin Hassett in the probability of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair, rising to first place. On the prediction market Polymarket, Warsh's probability of being nominated by Trump for the Federal Reserve Chair increased from 7% to 48%, while the probability for National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett dropped from a high of 85% to 42%. On the prediction market Kalshi, Warsh's nomination probability rose from 10% to 52%, while Hassett's nomination probability fell from a high of 81% to 39%.

When asked last Friday afternoon whether Warsh was at the top of the list for Federal Reserve Chair candidates, Trump replied, "Yes, I think he is. I think both Kevins are great." Trump then added, "And I think there are several other excellent candidates as well." JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon previously supported Warsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair, stating he would be a "great chair."

According to CNBC, citing informed sources, Kevin Hassett, once viewed by the market as a "quasi-candidate" for Federal Reserve Chair, has recently faced scrutiny from high-level individuals who can directly influence former President Trump's decisions. The contradiction lies in the fact that Hassett was initially seen as the strongest candidate to replace current Chair Jerome Powell due to his close relationship with Trump, but now concerns have arisen about him being "too close to the president." This pressure may explain why candidate interviews, which were canceled in early December, have been rescheduled (at least for Warsh, it was completed last week).