Analyst: Inflation data will become the market focus, and BTC whale holders' selling willingness has weakened

As the last FOMC meeting of 2025 concludes, the market is fully focused on U.S. data to assess how much monetary easing policy can improve liquidity conditions next year. Retail sales, unemployment claims, CPI, PCE, and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials will be densely presented, increasing the risk of repricing interest rate expectations. Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, pointed out, "The macro agenda has become the market's focus." He stated that the market is no longer directly trading last week's rate cut fact, but rather shifting towards data that could validate or challenge that decision. "Inflation data will be decisive—any unexpected upside could reinforce the 'hawkish rate cut' narrative, while softer data could reopen the upside for risk assets before the end of the year."

Additionally, on-chain data shows that selling pressure from large holders is easing. CryptoQuant data indicates that the flow of "whole coin whales" to Binance (i.e., transactions over 1 BTC entering the exchange) has plummeted to its lowest level since 2018, with the annual average now around 6,500 BTC and the weekly average hovering around 5,200 BTC. CryptoQuant analysts noted, "This trend indicates a reduced willingness to sell among investors holding large amounts of BTC." They also mentioned that the broader ecosystem expansion has diverted capital flows from centralized trading platforms. Misir added, "The inflow of whole coin whales to Binance is collapsing, signaling a weakening of large holders' selling intentions. Even if price performance remains suboptimal, internal pressures are actually easing."