4E: Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds, with macro expectations and capital flows still dominating the direction

According to 4E observations, Bitcoin has stabilized after a slight rebound, with the current recovery leaning more towards improved risk sentiment rather than internal drivers within the crypto sector. The stock market has also seen a slight increase, with the market expecting an approximately 85% chance of a rate cut in December. However, high inflation and weak employment data continue to weigh on the market, and Federal Reserve officials have expressed a slightly dovish stance, though with limited impact. This week, macro attention will shift to unemployment claims and ADP employment data. Meanwhile, AI-related credit spreads and CDS have continued to rise, indicating that funds are reassessing the strongest trading logic from the past year.

The funding situation remains weak, with continued outflows from crypto ETFs and net liquidations of asset products, causing several net values to fall below $1 per unit, significantly increasing risk aversion. Strategy has once again taken center stage in public discourse, as Bitcoin reserves approach breakeven and stock prices have been placed on the MSCI delisting watchlist, potentially becoming a key variable in the market before the end of the year. Currently, the correlation between BTC and AI tech stocks has increased, while the fear and greed index has declined, indicating limited short-term sentiment recovery.

In terms of options structure, demand for put protection remains strong, although open interest leans towards bullish positions, implied volatility and positions have both decreased, and positions are starting to lighten. If a rebound occurs near 95,000 USDT, it may face selling pressure from ETF redemptions, continuing the range-bound logic; the main support range is between 80,000 and 82,000 USD, and a break below this could trigger systemic stop-loss liquidity.

Michael Saylor has once again released the BTC Tracker. Historically, Strategy tends to disclose increased holdings the day after this signal appears, forming a clear communication pattern: first, a signal is thrown, then purchases are announced, shaping ongoing bullish sentiment and expectations for fund inflows.

4E reminds investors: the short-term BTC trend is still driven by macro expectations, fund inflows and outflows, and the resonance of options structure, with the rebound stemming more from external risk appetite rather than improvements in on-chain fundamentals. A bottom still requires confirmation from funds, and sentiment recovery will depend on ETF flows and Strategy dynamics. It is advisable to pay attention to this week's employment data and the performance of spot liquidity.