4E: The "post-halving drop" pattern of Bitcoin may become ineffective; the EU plans to expand cryptocurrency regulation

According to 4E observations, the traditional volatility pattern of Bitcoin after halving may be failing. Data shows that the current Bitcoin volatility is below 2%, reaching a historic low, while during the third halving period in 2020, volatility once exceeded 5%. Keiji Maeda, an executive at Japanese crypto company BACKSEAT, pointed out that as market liquidity increases and institutional participation rises, the impact of individual investors' short-term behavior on prices diminishes, and the so-called "post-halving pullback" rule of thumb may no longer apply.

On the EU front, the European Commission is planning to expand central regulation of stock and crypto asset exchanges. The new proposal will grant the European Securities and Markets Authority greater powers, covering "the most important cross-border entities" to promote the construction of a "Capital Markets Union" and reduce regulatory fragmentation. The relevant proposal is expected to be formally presented in December.

On the other hand, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor stated that the company has no plans to acquire other Bitcoin asset reserve companies, noting that such mergers and acquisitions typically involve high uncertainty and long cycles.

In terms of investment institutions, the latest top 15 holdings of Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF show that crypto-related companies like Coinbase (5.8%) and Circle (2.55%) have significant weights, indicating continued bets in the new round of technology and digital asset cycles.

4E Commentary: Bitcoin entering a historically low volatility range may indicate that the market structure has shifted from being speculation-driven to a stable capital state. If EU regulatory integration and institutional allocation trends progress simultaneously, crypto assets may gradually enter a "low volatility steady bull" phase.