IOSG founding partner: It is currently not the peak of a bull market but rather a period for institutions to accumulate positions, optimistic about the market in the first half of next year

IOSG founding partner Jocy posted on social media, "2025 will be the darkest year for the crypto market and the dawn of the institutional era. This is a fundamental shift in market structure, while most people are still viewing the new era through the lens of old cycles. A review of the 2025 crypto market shows a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation, with core data indicating institutional holdings at 24% and retail investors exiting at 66%, completing the turnover in the crypto market. Although BTC fell by 5.4% in 2025, it reached a historical high of $126,080 during that period. The market dominance has shifted from retail to institutions. Institutions continue to build positions at 'high levels' because they are not focused on price, but on cycles. Retail investors are selling, while institutions are buying. This is not the 'top of a bull market,' but rather the 'institutional accumulation period.'

In November 2026, there will be midterm elections. Historical patterns indicate that 'policy precedes election years,' so the investment logic should be: the first half of 2026 will be a policy honeymoon period with institutional allocation, optimistic about the market; the second half of 2026 will see political uncertainty and increased volatility. However, there are still risks such as Federal Reserve policies, a strong dollar, potential delays in market structure legislation, continued selling by long-term holders, and uncertainty regarding midterm election results. But the other side of risk is opportunity; when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position.

Short-term (3-6 months): Fluctuation in the range of $87,000 - $95,000, institutions continue to accumulate.

Mid-term (first half of 2026): Driven by policy and institutions, target $120,000 - $150,000.

Long-term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, watch for election results and policy continuity.

This is not the peak of a cycle, but the starting point of a new cycle. 2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process in the crypto market. Although BTC's annual return is negative, ETF investors show strong HODL resilience. On the surface, 2025 appears to be the worst for crypto, but in reality, it features the largest scale of supply turnover, the strongest institutional allocation willingness, the clearest policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvement. Although prices fell by 5%, ETF inflows reached $25 billion, optimistic about the first half of 2026. Key points to watch in 2026 include: legislative progress on market structure bills, the possibility of strategic Bitcoin reserve expansion, and policy continuity after the midterm elections. In the long term, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity will lay the foundation for the next round of increases. When the market structure undergoes fundamental changes, old valuation logic will fail, and new pricing power will be rebuilt."