Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: The Fed's Rate Cut Cycle is About to Restart, and the Dot Plot Will Become a New Battleground for the Market

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, in the past week, the mild CPI and PPI inflation reports, along with a surge in initial jobless claims, have paved the way for the Federal Reserve to at least cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. Concerns about the labor market and prices have led to the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index hitting a new low since May, with long-term inflation expectations rising for two consecutive months.

The Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting next week. A 25 basis point rate cut itself is unlikely to trigger market volatility. If that is the case, market participants may quickly turn their attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference and the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), particularly the new "dot plot." Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time):

• Wednesday 21:45, the Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision;
• Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC announces its interest rate decision and economic projections summary;
• Thursday 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;
• Thursday 19:00, the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision and meeting minutes;
• Friday TBD, the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision;
• Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo holds a monetary policy press conference.