Goldman Sachs: There may be a potential selling pressure of 45 billion USD in the US stock market in the next month

After the sharp decline of technology stocks last week, the concentrated holding risk in the U.S. stock market may not have been completely eliminated. The latest data shows that although retail investors and some hedge funds have significantly reduced their positions, global macro funds have largely maintained their existing stock exposure, becoming the next potential market risk of concern for institutions.

According to a report by Bloomberg on Tuesday, data from Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage business indicates that as the S&P 500 recorded its worst weekly performance since 2025, global macro hedge funds did not significantly reduce their stock holdings. These funds primarily express macroeconomic and market directional judgments through index futures, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and swap contracts. Due to their trading often involving large-scale index exposure, concentrated position adjustments could exacerbate volatility in major stock indices if market sentiment further deteriorates.

Goldman Sachs data shows that last week, hedge funds' net selling of individual stocks reached the highest level in four months, with technology stocks becoming the most concentrated sector for net selling in both global and U.S. markets. Meanwhile, macro products, including index and ETFs, recorded net buying.

In addition to global macro funds, systematic trading strategies may also become an important source of market volatility. Models tracked by Goldman Sachs indicate that approximately 60% of the global stock market is currently showing negative trading signals. According to relevant model estimates, S&P 500 index futures may face a potential selling scale of about $28 billion in the coming week, with potential selling pressure reaching $45 billion over the next month. The position structure in the options market has also increased potential risks.

SpotGamma data shows that there is a broad negative gamma exposure in the S&P 500 index within the range of 7000 to 7550 points. In this market environment, options traders may further sell stocks during market declines to hedge their position risks and increase buying during market rises, thereby amplifying short-term price volatility.