Ansem: The limited decline of BTC after the Binance hack does not mean the downward trend has ended

Cryptocurrency trader Ansem posted that the statement "6 billion dollars stolen, and Bitcoin only dropped 2%" should not be directly viewed as a bullish signal. He believes that the current trading structure of Bitcoin is significantly different from years ago, and the market's lack of immediate downward reaction to events does not mean that the downward trend will not continue.

He pointed out that in 2017, Bitcoin was still the main target for leveraged speculation among retail investors, but from 2020 to 2021, retail investors took on higher risks primarily through trading altcoins, and new traders on Uniswap had limited interest in Bitcoin. After 2023, due to the poor performance of altcoins on centralized exchanges, speculative activities further shifted on-chain, making Meme coins more popular; now perpetual contracts in stocks have further diverted traders who might have leveraged long positions on BTC. Ansem believes this change has affected BTC's price performance.

In 2017, Bitcoin often rose rapidly after breaking historical highs; however, in 2021 and during certain phases from 2023 to 2025, there were more instances of slight new highs followed by failed breakouts and narrow fluctuations lasting for months. He cited the "10·10" liquidation event as an example, stating that BTC's decline was limited compared to altcoins at that time, and it continued to trade above $100,000 for several weeks, while altcoins suffered severe losses within a single candlestick. In his view, this is related to high-risk speculators no longer concentrating on leveraged long positions in BTC.

Ansem emphasized that the current sellers may be more passive, and there are likely fewer speculators facing leveraged liquidations in the BTC market than in the past, so one cannot conclude that the downward trend has ended solely based on short-term price resilience.