Analyst: Significant differentiation has appeared on the Bitcoin blockchain, with whales turning to hoarding coins while spot demand remains weak

On-chain data analyst XWIN cited CryptoQuant data indicating that Bitcoin's current on-chain data is showing a significant divergence between whale behavior and the spot market. Although large holders have begun to accumulate again, demand in the spot market remains weak, and the market is transitioning from "seller exhaustion" to a potential bottom. XWIN stated that on-chain data shows positive accumulation signals. Holders of 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins have significantly reversed their 60-day net accumulation from negative 62,600 to positive 5,230, indicating that major whales are shifting from a distribution model back to accumulation.

At the same time, the USDT reserves on the Binance trading platform have surged from about 790 million USD to 1.76 billion USD, suggesting that potential buying power in the market is increasing. However, spot buying in the U.S. has not kept pace. The Coinbase premium index is currently around -0.1416%, and weekly trading platform flow has turned into a net inflow of 8,428 BTC. Additionally, the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) hovers around 0.9982, indicating that short-term holders are still experiencing slight losses near the breakeven point and are choosing to sell.

Analysts believe that while the underlying structure is improving, stronger spot demand is still urgently needed to spark a sustainable rebound. They suggest that investors focus on three key signals in the future: the trend of the Coinbase premium index, changes in exchange net flow, and whether the STH-SOPR can successfully rise above the 1 mark.