BIT Research: Positive news has landed but no rise, why is Bitcoin "unmoved"?

The current round of the cryptocurrency market is in a phase of noticeably dulled reactions. The announcement of a ceasefire, rising inflation expectations, and increased anticipation for the transition of the Federal Reserve chair should have driven the market to exhibit more significant volatility, but Bitcoin's overall response remains relatively limited. Although the price rebounded from $66,400 to $70,900, an increase of about 6.5%, trading volume and market participation have not expanded correspondingly, indicating that market momentum is still insufficient. Meanwhile, the cumulative losses in the crypto market remain substantial, and the willingness to reallocate funds is weak, leaving the market in a phase of observation and waiting for validation.

Weak Rebound Momentum: Easing News Fails to Drive Significant Fund Inflow

From the market performance perspective, while the ceasefire news provided a short-term breather, it did not reverse the overall weak pattern. The trading volume on the day the ceasefire news was announced was about $121 billion, less than one-third of last October's peak of $394 billion. Considering the current total market capitalization of approximately $2.42 trillion in the cryptocurrency market, this trading level does not reflect a strong willingness to enter.

At the same time, the crypto asset portfolio has retraced 43% since last October's peak, corresponding to a loss of about $1.86 trillion. In contrast, the traditional market has seen limited retracement, and the loss pressure in the crypto market still needs time to digest. Against this backdrop, the market has not quickly restored its risk appetite due to the easing of geopolitical news, reflecting a cautious stance from the funding side regarding the current situation.

Technical Indicators Show Signs of Recovery: But Macroeconomic Constraints Still Limit Trend Reversal

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has entered a clearly oversold range, with some indicators beginning to show marginal recovery. The weekly stochastic indicator is approaching the critical threshold of 20%, and the monthly RSI is also starting to show signs of bottom formation, indicating that market momentum may be changing.

However, a similar oversold state persisted for several months in 2022, during which there were signals of a rebound, but ultimately no effective reversal occurred. Therefore, the current improvement in technical indicators is still insufficient to independently constitute a basis for trend reversal. On the other hand, the market generally expects U.S. inflation to rise from 2.4% to 3.4%. If the data falls within the expected range, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold; additionally, high oil prices and the transmission of energy costs to consumers may continue to suppress the risk appetite for high-volatility assets.

Overall, the market remains in a cautiously bearish phase. Although technical indicators have shown some signs of recovery, the fundamental logic also supports Bitcoin, but large-scale losses have not been fully digested, and fund inflow remains slow, with macro and geopolitical uncertainties still present. In this context, $70,000 has become a key dividing line. If Bitcoin can effectively hold this level by the end of April, the market may shift from downside risk to upside potential; before that, waiting is still preferable to prematurely betting on a reversal.

Some of the above views are from BIT on Target, Contact Us for the complete report from BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.