HTX Research latest report interpretation: How the Hormuz impact rewrites the pricing logic of the cryptocurrency market

Recently, HTX Research, a research department under Huobi HTX, released a new report titled “Hormuz Shock, U.S. Midterms, and the Repricing of the Crypto Market”, which analyzes the nationwide speech by Trump on April 2 regarding Iran and the cross-asset volatility it triggered. The report dissects the complete path of how energy supply shocks transmit to the crypto market and combines the U.S. midterm elections and the legislative game surrounding cryptocurrencies to provide a layered scenario judgment.

HTX Research believes that the macro trading framework has shifted from "risk appetite recovery driven by easing expectations" to a suppressive environment characterized by the overlap of geopolitical energy shocks, prolonged high interest rates, and rising policy uncertainty. The short-term main line of the crypto market has turned to defense, layering, and repricing. This judgment directly echoes the recent release of Huobi HTX's "2026 Digital Asset Trend White Paper," which points out that by 2026, the volatility of digital assets will "more stem from changes in funding costs, yield curves, and the U.S. dollar index." This report starts from a specific geopolitical shock and demonstrates how this transmission genuinely affects various crypto assets within 72 hours.

A Set of Market Data That Breaks Conventional Understanding

The cross-asset reaction following Trump's speech constitutes a key entry point for understanding the current environment. Brent crude oil surged over 7% in a single day, briefly rising above $108; the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to about 4.37%; Bitcoin fell back to the range of $66,000 to $67,000. If we only observe this, it resembles a standard war risk aversion scenario. However, gold and silver both fell simultaneously—traditionally, war is almost a sure boon for precious metals. The simultaneous weakness of precious metals and BTC indicates that the fundamental logic of market trading lies elsewhere.

The real transmission chain is: oil prices soar → inflation expectations are revised upward → the Fed's room for rate cuts is further compressed → the dollar and real interest rates strengthen → global risk budgets are forced to contract. This is a liquidity contraction shock, rather than a classic flight to safety from risk assets to safe assets. For crypto investors, this distinction is crucial: in a classic risk-off environment, BTC can tell the "digital gold" story, but in an overall liquidity contraction environment, almost all assets reliant on marginal capital inflows will be pressured in the first phase. The "Huobi HTX 2026 Digital Asset Trend White Paper" previously made a highly consistent prediction in the systemic risk chapter: at the onset of extreme geopolitical conflict, BTC's liquidity will still be constrained by macro clearing pressures, showing a high correlation with traditional risk assets. The movements on April 2 almost validated this judgment item by item.

Why the Hormuz Shock Transmits to the Crypto Market

The Strait of Hormuz is the core anchor point of this pricing round. EIA and IEA data show that by 2025, nearly 15 million barrels per day of crude oil will be transported through this strait, accounting for more than one-third of global crude oil trade, with China and India collectively receiving about 44%. Once navigation is restricted, the countries that bear the most direct cost pressure are Asian importers and manufacturing economies based on imported energy, rather than the U.S. Trump emphasized in his speech that the U.S. does not rely on Middle Eastern oil, further reinforcing market expectations of "the U.S. being relatively insulated while Eurasia bears the main shock."

This pattern produces a seemingly paradoxical result: the geopolitical escalation triggered by the U.S. actually strengthens the dollar. For global capital, the U.S. possesses local energy expansion capabilities, advantages in dollar settlement, and a stronger financing system. In the context where Europe lacks a unified energy moat and Asia is highly dependent on Hormuz, funds naturally flow back to the U.S. The strengthening dollar further suppresses liquidity in non-dollar currency zones—European and Asian institutions, while dealing with currency depreciation and rising energy costs, naturally see their risk budgets for allocating high-volatility assets contract.

The endpoint of this chain is very clear for the crypto market: when global risk budgets contract, funds begin to withdraw from the outermost circle of risk assets. BTC, due to its deep liquidity and the highest institutional holding ratio, can still maintain relative resilience; most altcoins are at the outermost circle of global dollar liquidity, relying most heavily on marginal capital inflows, and are the first to be pressured in this round. This is also the underlying reason for the significant differentiation in the performance of different crypto assets during this shock.

Stablecoins and RWA: Highlighting Value Amidst the Shock

Not all crypto sectors are under equal pressure. As global macro uncertainty rises, energy costs increase, and traditional cross-border payment friction intensifies, the settlement efficiency and programmability of dollar stablecoins become more attractive. Especially in Asia and emerging markets facing dual pressures of currency depreciation and rising energy prices, the demand for dollar stablecoins as a store of value and settlement tool may increase rather than decrease—they provide a channel to bypass the traditional banking system and gain dollar exposure with low friction.

The logic of the RWA sector is similar. When risk appetite contracts and the market moves away from purely narrative assets, on-chain assets with real yield support exhibit defensive properties. U.S. Treasury RWA provides on-chain accessible risk-free yields, while private credit and corporate debt RWA offer fixed income returns higher than traditional channels, making them naturally more favored by funds in an environment that prioritizes "light beta, heavy structure."

The white paper provides a more macro background for this judgment: stablecoins have built an "on-chain dollar system" worth over $300 billion, becoming a new issuance channel for the dollar system; the RWA market has a compound annual growth rate of about 30% over three years, making it the most stable asset class in the crypto financial system. The differentiation logic revealed by this round of shocks can be condensed into one sentence: altcoins are weak because they are at the outer circle of liquidity, while the resilience of stablecoins and RWA comes from being deeply embedded in real economic demand.

Four High-Frequency Signals Determine Market Direction

Before macro pressures ease, "high volatility, heavy structure, light beta" remains the main tone of the crypto market. HTX Research points out that there are four sets of high-frequency indicators worth closely tracking over the next 6 to 10 weeks. The first is oil prices and shipping, with a core observation on whether Brent and WTI can continue to fall below $100, as well as changes in Hormuz transit data and shipping insurance costs. The second is interest rates and the dollar, focusing on whether the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries and the dollar index have peaked, and the transmission of U.S. gasoline prices to implied inflation expectations. The third is internal crypto data, including BTC ETF fund flows, net issuance of stablecoins, on-chain activity, perpetual contract funding rates, and the proportion of altcoin trading volume. The fourth is policy and elections, tracking the scheduling of the CLARITY Act in the Senate, the direction of stablecoin yield provisions, and the degree of bundling of crypto topics with inflation and oil price issues in key swing districts. If two or more of these four sets of indicators begin to improve, the crypto market is expected to enter a repair phase; conversely, deleveraging and repricing will remain the main theme.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the exclusive research department under Huobi HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis across a wide range of fields including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and promoting a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics. Visit us.

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