Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Iran's Negotiation Foundation Destroyed, Strait of Hormuz Closed; Intel Soars Due to Involvement in Terafab Project (April 9, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Federal Reserve March Meeting Minutes: Iran Conflict Amplifies Economic Dual Risks

• The minutes show that the Iran conflict has caused significant divisions among policymakers; a prolonged conflict may impact the labor market and necessitate interest rate cuts, while inflationary pressures may also force rate hikes. The vast majority of officials believe it will take longer to restore inflation to the 2% target.
• Some officials support a "dual description" of future interest rate decisions in the post-meeting statement.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are good, but the impact of the conflict on oil and gas and its ripple effects still need time to observe, making it too early to judge. Market Impact: Increases uncertainty in the Fed's policy path, potentially suppressing rate cut expectations in the short term, but signs of geopolitical easing help reduce overall inflationary pressures.

International Commodities

Iran Claims Three Points of "Ten-Point Plan" Violated, Strait of Hormuz Closed Again

• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated on social media that the U.S. violated three key provisions of the ceasefire "ten-point plan" proposed by Iran, claiming that "the basis for negotiation has been destroyed," and reiterated long-term distrust of U.S. commitments.
• On the 8th local time, the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, with the tanker "AUROURA" suddenly turning back to the Persian Gulf.
• White House Press Secretary Levitt confirmed that the first round of face-to-face talks between the U.S. and Iran will be held on the morning of the 11th in Islamabad, Pakistan, led by Vice President Vance. Iran's revised streamlined proposal has been accepted as the basis for negotiations and will align with the U.S. "15-point plan"; the U.S. core red line remains unchanged, especially that "Iran must not enrich uranium on its territory." Market Impact: Although there are signs of easing geopolitical tensions, volatility remains, pushing oil prices down significantly in the short term while boosting risk asset sentiment.

Macroeconomic Policy

White House Clarifies Ceasefire Details, U.S. Government Considers Adjusting NATO Military Deployments

• Vice President Vance stated in Hungary that the U.S. has never committed to including Lebanon in the ceasefire agreement, and Israel has agreed to exercise restraint to support negotiations.
• According to government officials, the Trump administration is considering withdrawing U.S. military deployments from some NATO countries that have failed to substantively assist actions against Iran as a "punitive" measure; the plan is still in its early stages. Market Impact: Highlights the Trump administration's tough stance towards allies, which may further impact the global geopolitical landscape and energy security expectations.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Around $4720/ounce, down 0.2% in 24H, with safe-haven buying weakening in the short term due to geopolitical easing but still maintaining a high position.
• Spot Silver: $74.5/ounce, down 0.3% in 24H, adjusting in sync with gold and risk sentiment.
• WTI Crude Oil: Up 2.3%, at $97/barrel, with a technical rebound in the market following the ceasefire.
• Brent Crude Oil: Up 2.1%, at $97/barrel, driven by the same factors as WTI.
• Dollar Index: Down 0.8%, at 99.05, with improved risk appetite suppressing safe-haven demand.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Down 1.2% in 24H, currently around $70900, with profit-taking pressure increasing after a short-term easing of geopolitical risks, shifting from a continuous trend to a volatile consolidation.
• ETH: Down 2.2% in 24H, currently around $2190, slightly underperforming the market.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Down 1.4% in 24H, with a total market cap of approximately $2.41 trillion, dragged down by major coins' adjustments.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of approximately $263 million in 24H, with long positions liquidated at $160 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: The current price around $70703 is at a dense intersection of long and short liquidations, with a large accumulation of long liquidation zones at the $70000 level, which could trigger a rapid sell-off if breached. The upper range of $72400--73300 shows a significantly thicker accumulation of short liquidations; if the price breaks above $71500, the market is more likely to be pulled towards the upper liquidation pool, forming a short squeeze.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $85 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF had a slight net outflow of $9.8 million yesterday.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday saw an inflow of $2.592 billion and an outflow of $2.607 billion, with a net outflow of $15.32 million.

Summary: The recent rise in Bitcoin was mainly driven by a temporary easing of geopolitical risks, but the news regarding the Strait of Hormuz's transit fees significantly enhanced market confidence in BTC's long-term value. This event highlights Bitcoin's unique role in high-risk international trade, providing a new observation dimension for subsequent market trends. Investors should continue to track the progress of the talks on the 11th and the actual implementation of payment cases.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 2.85% at 47909.92 points, driven by the ceasefire news, opening high and continuing to rise.
• S&P 500: Up 2.51% at 6782.81 points, characterized by six consecutive increases.
• Nasdaq: Up 2.80% at 22635 points, with technology and storage optical communication sectors leading the gains.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Intel (INTC): +11.42%, at $58.95, significantly leading the gains, driven by a recovery in demand for storage chips and stable expectations for the semiconductor supply chain.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): +2.23%, at $182.08, supported by long-term demand for AI computing power.
• Google (GOOG): +3.56%, at $317.32, with smooth progress in AI search and applications.
• Apple (AAPL): +2.13%, at $258.90, benefiting from seasonal recovery in consumer electronics.
• Amazon (AMZN): +3.50%, at $221.25, with good growth expectations for cloud computing business.
• Broadcom (AVGO): +4.99%, at $350.63, with strong demand for AI custom chips.
• Meta (META): +6.50%, at $612.42, with a continued recovery momentum in advertising business.
• Tesla (TSLA): -0.98%, at $343.25, slightly retreating with the overall improvement in risk appetite.

Core Reason Summary: The temporary easing of geopolitical tensions has driven a rebound in risk assets overall, with the storage/optical communication sector exploding as the main line of gains, and Intel, as a key supplier, performing the most prominently, resonating with demand from the AI industry chain.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy Sector down about 4-10%

• Representative stocks: Chevron (CVX) -4.4%, Exxon Mobil (XOM) -4.7%, APA Corp. (APA) -10%.
• Driving factors: The sharp drop in oil prices triggered a collective adjustment in energy stocks.

Storage/Optical Communication Sector exploded across the board

• Representative stocks: Related semiconductor and communication stocks led the gains.
• Driving factors: Improved market expectations for supply chain stability.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Intel (INTC) - Leading Tech Stocks

Event Overview: Intel's stock price surged 11.42% on Wednesday, reaching $58.95, becoming the leading stock in the Nasdaq technology sector, with trading volume increasing by over 40% compared to the previous day. Core catalysts include a significant recovery in demand for storage chips and optimistic expectations for the company's AI packaging project (Terafab project). This project collaborates deeply with Elon Musk's xAI to provide high-density advanced packaging solutions for next-generation AI training clusters. The temporary easing of geopolitical risks (the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement) further boosts expectations for semiconductor supply chain stability, with Intel benefiting directly as a global key supplier. The overall strength of tech giants resonates, with Intel having seen sequential revenue growth in its memory business for three consecutive quarters, and AI-related orders now accounting for nearly 25%. Market Interpretation: Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have unanimously upgraded their ratings, believing that against the backdrop of geopolitical easing, the risk of global semiconductor supply chain disruptions has significantly decreased, and Intel's capacity layout in HBM and advanced packaging will see accelerated order fulfillment; institutions estimate that if AI capital expenditures remain high, Intel's EPS for fiscal year 2026 could be revised up by 15%-20%. Investment Insight: In the short term, attention can be paid to the positive transmission of falling oil prices on inflation and the flexibility of Fed policy; in the medium to long term, closely track the trend of AI server capital expenditures and the company's capacity ramp-up progress, suggesting gradual allocation in the $55-60 range.

2. Meta Platforms (META) - Strong Social Media Leader

Event Overview: Meta's stock price rose 6.5% to $612.42, continuing its six-day winning streak, with a cumulative increase of over 18%. The company's advertising business is recovering strongly, with Q1 ARPU (average revenue per user) increasing by 8.2% quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from AI-driven precision targeting algorithm upgrades and improved monetization rates for Reels short videos. The easing of geopolitical risks has boosted global consumer and corporate advertising spending confidence, while the Meta Reality Labs department's VR/AR hardware shipments exceeded expectations, and the open-source version of the AI content generation tool Llama further expands its ecological influence, resonating significantly with Nasdaq's tech-weighted stocks. Market Interpretation: Analysts from JPMorgan and Bernstein point out that the recovery in risk appetite combined with macro inflation expectations declining will drive overall expansion in the digital advertising market; there is still room for Meta's valuation to recover, with the current dynamic price-to-sales ratio at only 7.8 times, 15% lower than the historical average, and under the dual engines of advertising and AI, revenue growth is expected to maintain double digits in 2026. Investment Insight: The easing of geopolitical tensions is beneficial for consumer and advertising spending; investors are advised to focus on AI product commercialization progress in the Q2 earnings guidance, with the $330-650 range being a better allocation window.

3. Anthropic - New Breakthrough in AI Management Agents (Core Event in AI Ecosystem)

Event Overview: Anthropic officially launched Claude Managed Agents, a new product that combines composable APIs and managed environments, upgrading AI from a mere conversational tool to a sustainable productivity system. Deployment speed has increased by over 10 times, supporting multi-step complex decision-making, real-time automatic error correction, and cross-system integration. The product directly connects to Google Cloud and AWS infrastructure, with over 150 enterprise clients completing internal testing, marking a key transition point for AI from "generative tools" to "enterprise-level autonomous agents." This breakthrough synergizes with the supply chain stability expectations brought by geopolitical easing, further boosting demand for AI hardware and cloud services. Market Interpretation: Analysts from institutions with backgrounds in OpenAI believe this move is a milestone in the transition of AI from "tools" to "productivity systems," which will reshape corporate IT spending structures in the long term; Goldman Sachs predicts that the global AI agent market size could expand from the current $15 billion to $120 billion by 2026-2027, with Anthropic as a pioneer significantly driving the performance of upstream chip and cloud companies. Investment Insight: Focus on publicly listed companies related to AI infrastructure (Intel, Broadcom, etc.), as technological iterations are expected to accelerate capital expenditures across the industry, suggesting this event as an important observation signal for AI-themed allocations.

4. Micron Technology (MU) - Explosive Demand for Storage Chips

Event Overview: Micron's stock price rose alongside the collective strength of the storage sector, with strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM from AI data centers being the core driver. The company has sold out its entire HBM capacity for 2026, with spot prices for memory chips rising 28% since the beginning of the year, and the AI memory shortage continues. The easing of geopolitical risks alleviated supply chain bottlenecks, with Micron, as the world's second-largest DRAM supplier, benefiting directly from increased orders from downstream AI server clients like Intel and NVIDIA. Recent financial reports show that the data center business now accounts for 58% of revenue, with a year-on-year growth rate of 112%. Market Interpretation: A joint report from Citigroup and UBS emphasizes that the AI-driven imbalance in memory supply and demand will continue until the second half of 2027, with Micron's gross margin expected to rebound from the current 42% to over 55%; institutions generally give a "buy" rating, with target prices in the $110-130 range. Investment Insight: In the medium to long term, positive outlook on structural shortages in AI server memory, suggesting continued holding during high HBM prices, and monitoring quarterly capacity utilization data as a forward-looking indicator.

5. Broadcom (AVGO) - AI Custom Chip Orders Materialize

Event Overview: Broadcom announced an expansion of its long-term cooperation agreement with Google and Anthropic, providing Google with next-generation Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) custom chips and offering Anthropic several gigawatts of AI computing capacity support. The total value of this order is expected to exceed $4.5 billion, marking the largest single custom agreement in Broadcom's AI semiconductor business history. The easing of geopolitical tensions has improved supply chain stability, further ensuring chip delivery timelines; the company's AI-related revenue now accounts for 41%, a 65% increase year-on-year. Market Interpretation: Analysts from Jefferies and Barclays point out that this move significantly enhances the visibility of Broadcom's AI business revenue, solidifying its absolute leading position in the custom ASIC chip field; AI revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 is expected to be raised by 18%-22%, driving overall valuation reassessment. Investment Insight: Continued high growth in AI infrastructure capital expenditures, with Broadcom's long-term growth prospects clear, suggesting a focus on allocations during AI thematic rotations, and monitoring the pace of subsequent cooperation with cloud giants.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Bernstein: Quantum threats to Bitcoin are real but controllable, with the industry having a three to five-year window for quantum upgrades. Strategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor believes the risks are exaggerated, as this threat remains theoretical and may not need to be addressed for decades, by which time solutions will also be available.

2. Michael Saylor stated at an event hosted by Mizuho that Bitcoin likely bottomed around $60,000 in early February, with the bottom more determined by seller exhaustion rather than valuation. He believes current selling pressure is limited, with ETF inflows absorbing daily supply, and corporate allocations of financial assets to Bitcoin also create sustained demand. Saylor predicts that the catalyst for the next bull market will be the establishment of a bank credit and digital credit system built on Bitcoin, which will transform Bitcoin from a non-yielding asset into a capital market engine.

3. Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF MSBT recorded approximately $34 million in inflows on its first day of trading on April 8, with a trading volume exceeding 1.6 million shares.

4. According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the Ethereum Foundation has sold 3,750 of the 5,000 ETH it planned to sell this time (worth $8.3 million), with an average selling price of $2,214.

5. Chainalysis released a report predicting that stablecoin transaction volumes could reach up to $15 trillion by 2035. Even baseline growth could see adjusted stablecoin transaction volumes reach $71.9 trillion by 2035, and with macro catalysts such as demographic shifts and merchant adoption, the upper limit could be significantly increased. The report noted that stablecoins processed about $28 trillion in "real economic activity" in 2025, excluding transaction noise and only counting payment, remittance, and settlement scenarios. Two major drivers include: an estimated $100 trillion in wealth is expected to transfer from older generations to millennials and Generation Z, who are more accustomed to digital assets, between 2028 and 2048; and stablecoins becoming more deeply embedded in merchant checkout and backend payment systems, where users are unaware of the underlying crypto technology. Chainalysis expects stablecoin payment volumes to match those of Visa and Mastercard between 2031 and 2039.

6. The Block reported that Canary Capital submitted an S-1 application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday, applying to list an exchange-traded fund tracking the spot price of the PEPE token. Canary stated in the filing that PEPE was launched in April 2023, with a total supply of over 420 trillion tokens, and noted that this meme coin has no utility. Last year, Canary also submitted related ETF applications tracking the prices of MOG and Pengu.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

April 9 (Thursday)

1. U.S. February Core PCE Price Index, Q4 Real GDP Annualized Final Value, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 4.

April 10 (Friday)

1. U.S. March CPI Year-on-Year and Month-on-Month★★★★★; U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary Value + 1-Year Inflation Rate Expectations Preliminary Value.

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that the strong rebound in U.S. stocks and crypto assets on April 8 was mainly due to the risk appetite recovery brought about by the U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement, with a significant drop in oil prices further alleviating inflation concerns, helping the Fed maintain flexible policy space. Institutions like Morgan Stanley point out that in the short term, the market will focus on the results of the talks in Pakistan on the 11th; if substantial progress is made in negotiations, risk assets still have room to rise; however, the Iranian parliament's statement shows that divisions remain, and the volatility in the Strait of Hormuz still poses uncertainty, suggesting that investors maintain position discipline. Goldman Sachs analysts emphasize that the weakening dollar and the rebound in gold and silver reflect a temporary release of safe-haven sentiment, while the total market cap of the crypto market surpassing $2.5 trillion and continued net inflows into ETFs show strong institutional allocation demand. Overall, the easing of geopolitical tensions provides a breathing window for the market, but the dual risks highlighted in the Fed's March minutes remind investors that the macro policy path still holds uncertainties, suggesting attention to today's PCE data for validation of inflation expectations.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.