Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran two-week ceasefire takes effect; oil prices plummet over 16%; tech stocks, crypto, and gold rebound; Apple foldable phone expected to debut in September (April 8, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Philip Jefferson, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated that the Iran war will create uncertainty and temporarily raise inflation in the U.S.; however, the current monetary policy setting of the central bank remains appropriate. Jefferson described the current interest rate level as being roughly in a range that neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy. He indicated that under the current stance, employment will be supported, and as the effects of tariffs fade, inflation is expected to gradually return to the 2% target level.

International Commodities

U.S. and Iran Accept Pakistan's Mediation for Ceasefire; OPEC Production Sees Largest Drop in 40 Years

• The Prime Minister of Pakistan confirmed that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will take effect at 3:30 AM Iranian time on April 8 (8:00 AM Beijing time); Trump agreed to suspend bombing attacks on Iran for two weeks, provided that Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's Supreme National Security Council approved the ceasefire and submitted a 10-point proposal, with negotiations set to begin on April 10 in Islamabad.
• OPEC's daily crude oil production fell sharply by 7.56 million barrels in March (a decrease of 25%), to 22 million barrels, marking the largest monthly drop in at least 40 years, primarily due to export disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.
• Market Impact: The ceasefire news directly triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, alleviating supply chain concerns, but also highlighted the vulnerability of global energy supply to geopolitical conflicts; commodity volatility is expected to remain high in the short term.

Macroeconomic Policy

IMF Warns of Volatility Risks in Non-Bank Capital in Emerging Markets

• The second chapter of the IMF's "Global Financial Stability Report" points out that funds from non-bank financial investment institutions are highly sensitive to global risks, with volatility far exceeding that of traditional banks, posing greater vulnerabilities for emerging markets.
• Emerging economies have increasingly relied on non-bank channels for financing in recent years, making them susceptible to rapid capital outflows under global shocks.
• Market Impact: In contrast to the current easing of geopolitical tensions, this serves as a reminder for investors to remain vigilant about external financing uncertainties even as risk appetite warms, which may indirectly support demand for the dollar as a safe haven.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Rose over 2% during the Asian session, returning above $4800, rebounding for two consecutive days, boosted by the ceasefire news, which eased risk aversion but still maintained strength.
• Spot Silver: Increased nearly 5%, characterized by a significant rebound in sync with gold, driven by both industrial and safe-haven attributes.
• WTI Crude Oil: Extended its decline by 14% to $96.98, driven by the implementation of the U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement, with the market quickly releasing optimistic expectations for the restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Brent Crude Oil: Also fell sharply by 13% to $95.2, driven by the same factors as WTI, with geopolitical premiums rapidly dissipating.
• Dollar Index: Slightly retreated by 0.67% to 99, driven by a warming risk appetite and reduced demand for safe havens.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Increased over 4% in 24 hours, with the price briefly surpassing $72,000. Continuous trend analysis: After being dragged down by geopolitical tensions in the morning, it rebounded strongly following the ceasefire news, breaking through key resistance, with market risk appetite significantly recovering.
• ETH: Increased over 5.55% in 24 hours, with the price briefly exceeding $2250. The increase outpaced the broader market, benefiting from improved market sentiment and resonance with Bitcoin.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Increased by about 4% in 24 hours, returning to around $2.53 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidations in 24 hours amounted to about $600 million, with $431 million in short liquidations, as short-term bears were forced to cover their positions, driving prices upward.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: A large number of long liquidations are concentrated below the current price (around $71,561), indicating that a drop could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, creating a downward liquidity waterfall. Short liquidations above are relatively dispersed but gradually accumulating; if the price is pulled up to break through the $71,500-$73,000 range, it could trigger a short squeeze.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $142 million yesterday (previous day net inflow of $471 million); ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $48.2 million yesterday (previous day net inflow of $120 million).
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: BTC saw an inflow of $3.003 billion yesterday, with an outflow of $2.819 billion, resulting in a net inflow of $184 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Fell 0.18% to 46,584.46 points, stabilized in the late session after being dragged down by Trump's ultimatum in the morning, with cautious continuous trends.
• S&P 500: Rose 0.08% to 6,616.85 points, characterized by a late-session turnaround and achieving five consecutive gains, reversing early session losses stimulated by the ceasefire news.
• Nasdaq: Rose 0.1% to 22,017.85 points, driven by a general recovery in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq rising for five consecutive days.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA (NVDA): +0.26% to $178.10, supported by steady AI demand.
• Apple (AAPL): -2.07% to $253.50, despite positive news about the foldable phone debuting in September, it was still dragged down by overall volatility during the session.
• Google A (GOOG): +1.82% to $305.46, benefiting from a warming risk appetite.
• Microsoft (MSFT): -0.16% to $372.00, showing relatively stable performance.
• Amazon (AMZN): +0.46% to $213.77, with stable e-commerce and cloud business.
• Meta (META): +0.35% to $575.05, showing signs of recovery in social advertising.
• Tesla (TSLA): -1.75% to $346.65, with significant differentiation in the automotive sector. Summary of core reasons: The ceasefire news stimulated a rebound in risk assets, benefiting most tech giants, but Apple experienced a slight pullback due to the pace of news digestion.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy Sector saw the largest declines (dragged down by plummeting oil prices)

• Representative stocks: Oil-related companies generally fell by 2-5%.
• Driving factors: The implementation of the two-week ceasefire agreement improved expectations for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, rapidly dissipating geopolitical premiums.

Tech/Semiconductor Sector saw a strong rebound

• Representative stocks: NVIDIA +0.26%, Google +2.11%.
• Driving factors: A recovery in risk appetite combined with the unchanged long-term theme of AI, with post-market futures rising sharply further boosting sector confidence.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Apple Inc. - Foldable Phone Expected to Debut in September

Event Overview: Apple has broken the previous "delay panic" by confirming that its first foldable iPhone (iPhone Fold) will be released in September 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro/Max series, featuring a 2nm A20 Pro chip, with design and pricing details gradually becoming clear. Previously, the market was concerned that supply chain or technical issues would cause delays, and this news directly dispels those doubts. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe this move strengthens Apple's leading position in high-end innovation, with the foldable form expected to open up a new growth curve; investment banks like Goldman Sachs maintain a "buy" rating, emphasizing long-term ecological advantages. Investment Insight: The short-term stock price has partially digested the good news; investors should pay attention to supply chain validation signals before the official release in September; in the long term, foldable products may become Apple's next growth engine.

2. OPEC-Related Energy Giants

Event Overview: Due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, OPEC's crude oil production fell sharply by 7.56 million barrels per day in March (-25%), marking the largest monthly drop in over 40 years, with major member countries facing export disruptions. Following the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, the market expects supply to gradually recover. Market Interpretation: Institutions like Goldman Sachs point out that while short-term oil price pressures may ease, long-term attention is still needed on OPEC+'s production increase plans, as energy stock valuations have already reflected some release of geopolitical risks. Investment Insight: The energy sector is under short-term pressure; it is advisable to focus on valuation recovery opportunities while being cautious of the speed of supply recovery.

3. Broadcom (AVGO) - Expanding AI Chip Collaboration with Google and Anthropic

Event Overview: Broadcom announced a long-term AI chip supply agreement with Alphabet (Google) and further expanded its multi-billion dollar custom TPU and AI accelerator collaboration with Anthropic. This agreement extends to 2031 and will provide custom TPUs and network components for Google's next-generation AI framework, while Anthropic will access about 3.5 gigawatts of next-generation TPU computing power starting in 2027. Combined with Q1 earnings showing AI semiconductor revenue of $8.4 billion (up 106% year-on-year), Broadcom's stock price rose over 3% in after-hours trading following the announcement. Market Interpretation: Investment banks are generally optimistic about this move; Goldman Sachs noted strong demand for custom AI chips, which will significantly enhance Broadcom's AI revenue visibility; Jefferies and other institutions raised their target prices, believing that its technological barriers in AI accelerators and network solutions have built a long-term competitive advantage, with AI-related revenue expected to exceed $100 billion by 2027, further consolidating its core position in the hyperscaler supply chain. Investment Insight: With high capital expenditures in AI, Broadcom's growth certainty as a core supplier is extremely high; it is advisable to pay attention to the progress of subsequent quarterly orders as a prominent long-term allocation value.

4. NVIDIA (NVDA) - AI Computing Leader Rebounds with Warming Risk Appetite

Event Overview: Following the implementation of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, NVIDIA's stock price rose nearly 3% in after-hours trading, with the semiconductor sector collectively rebounding. As the absolute leader in the global AI GPU and accelerator market, NVIDIA continues to benefit from explosive demand growth in data centers and generative AI training, with steady progress in the shipment rhythm of the Blackwell platform. Market Interpretation: Institutional analysis suggests that easing geopolitical tensions reduce macro uncertainty, benefiting the performance of high-valuation tech stocks. Morgan Stanley and other investment banks maintain a "buy" rating, emphasizing NVIDIA's irreplaceable pricing power and ecological stickiness in the AI ecosystem, combined with large orders from hyperscalers, further reinforcing market expectations for long-term prosperity in AI infrastructure. Investment Insight: Short-term geopolitical factors provide a catalyst for rebound, while the AI theme remains a core driver in the medium to long term; investors should pay attention to supply chain stability and the rhythm of new platform launches as a core holding in the tech sector.

5. Oracle (ORCL) - Pimco Plans $14 Billion Financing for Data Center

Event Overview: Pimco is considering providing Oracle with $14 billion in debt financing to build a large data center serving OpenAI, further expanding AI infrastructure capacity. Market Interpretation: Institutional views suggest that Oracle's layout in AI computing infrastructure continues to lead; if this financing materializes, it will significantly strengthen its cloud business growth momentum and strategic cooperation with OpenAI. Investment Insight: With continued high capital expenditures in AI, Oracle's certainty is strong; it is advisable to pay attention to the positive catalyst of financing progress on stock prices.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. The decentralized exchange Stabble in the Solana ecosystem issued an urgent notice urging liquidity providers to withdraw funds immediately, due to a former North Korean employee who had previously worked on the project. This warning seems to have been triggered by information from on-chain detective ZachXBT, who disclosed that a North Korean developer had worked for many years on the Solana DeFi infrastructure project Elemental.

2. Onchain Lens monitored that BlackRock withdrew 2,607 BTC ($177.56 million) and 28,391 ETH ($59 million) from Coinbase.

3. Strategy disclosed that so far this year, the company has purchased BTC equivalent to 2.2 times the "natural supply" of Bitcoin, and has earned a 3.7% return through its BTC Yield strategy, cumulatively adding 24,675 BTC, worth about $1.7 billion at current prices.

4. The Canadian listed company SOL Strategies Inc. has signed an agreement to acquire assets of the Solana native zero-knowledge technology company Darklake Labs for $1.2 million, of which $200,000 is cash and $1 million is in common stock of the company.

5. CME Group announced plans to launch futures contracts for Avalanche (AVAX) and Sui (SUI) on May 4, pending regulatory approval. The new products include AVAX futures (contract size 5,000 AVAX) and micro AVAX futures (500 AVAX), as well as SUI futures (50,000 SUI) and micro SUI futures (5,000 SUI). CME stated that its cryptocurrency derivatives had an average daily nominal trading volume of about $8 billion in March, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Starting May 29, all CME cryptocurrency futures and options will support 24/7 trading.

6. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost analyzed that despite the current market facing geopolitical tensions and their economic impacts, the environment for risk assets remains challenging, but some investors seem more inclined to hold Bitcoin for the long term. Data shows that the supply of long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin has gradually increased, presenting constructive and positive signals.

As of the end of November last year, the supply of long-term holders of Bitcoin (30-day moving average) had fallen to -674,000 BTC, but has now rebounded to positive values, averaging an increase of about 308,000 BTC. This indicates that investor behavior is shifting from selling to holding; although Bitcoin prices are still fluctuating within a range, an increase in long-term holdings is often a precursor to price increases.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecasts

• U.S.-Iran Negotiations Start: Scheduled for April 10 in Islamabad, focusing on details of passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the implementation of the 10-point plan.
• OPEC Monthly Report: Attention on subsequent production recovery guidance.

April 8 (Wednesday)

1. 04:30 API Crude Oil Inventory; 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Inventory (★★★★☆, sensitive to inventory dynamics under geopolitical conflict)
2. Federal Reserve to release minutes from the March FOMC meeting (expected to lean towards maintaining a wait-and-see approach under geopolitical/oil price uncertainty) (★★★★★)
3. Delta Air Lines (pre-market), Constellation Brands, Applied Digital (post-market); focus on aviation fuel cost pressures and consumer demand resilience.

April 9 (Thursday)

1. U.S. February Core PCE Price Index, Q4 Real GDP Annualized Final Value, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 4;

April 10 (Friday)

1. U.S. March CPI Year-on-Year and Month-on-Month★★★★★; U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary Value + 1-Year Inflation Rate Expectation Preliminary Value

*This week's operational advice: Maintain flexible positions, with a focus on oil prices (WTI/Brent), VIX, and the dollar index. Geopolitical news drives short-term sentiment, while inflation data and minutes drive mid-term trends.

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment banks and analysts generally believe that the implementation of the U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement marks the timely realization of the "TACO script," significantly alleviating geopolitical premiums in the short term, driving oil prices down and risk assets to rebound. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz will quickly release energy supply pressures, and WTI crude oil is expected to give back some gains, but long-term attention is still needed on OPEC+ dynamics; Goldman Sachs emphasized that the tech and crypto sectors will be the first to benefit from the recovery in risk appetite, with the Nasdaq and Bitcoin expected to continue their five-day upward trend. The IMF report reminds emerging markets to be wary of volatility in non-bank capital, combined with the current optimistic sentiment from the ceasefire, the overall market remains in a "geopolitical easing + macro caution" dual logic. The consensus among investment banks is: short-term benefits for risk assets, medium-term focus on Federal Reserve policy and supply recovery rhythm, suggesting investors position in energy stocks during oil price declines while maintaining a preference for tech, gold, and crypto allocations. Overall, this round of geopolitical easing provides a clear trading window for the market, but volatility will continue alongside negotiation details.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and is not intended as any investment advice.