Analysis shows that the rise of Bitcoin has strengthened the overall cryptocurrency market, and expectations of a ceasefire in Iran are driving a risk-on sentiment

Under the expectation of a potential ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, market risk appetite has rebounded. It is reported that the ceasefire plan may take effect on Monday and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin's rise has driven the overall cryptocurrency market higher, with mainstream assets like Ethereum and Solana also increasing.

The derivatives market is also sending bullish signals, with improvements in Bitcoin futures structure and a continuous decline in 30-day implied volatility. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.8%, reinforcing the risk-on atmosphere. However, analysts point out that there is still uncertainty in the market rebound. Recent ceasefire announcements have been denied or debunked by Iran multiple times, and if similar situations occur again, the market may quickly reverse. Furthermore, even if an agreement is reached, its binding nature on Israel remains in doubt, which could limit the sustainability of risk appetite. Overall, while Bitcoin has upward potential, macro variables remain a key constraint.