Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump threatens to "blow up power plants," the Strait of Hormuz becomes the global energy focus; Musk announces chip-making plan TERAFAB (March 23, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Powell Reiterates Federal Reserve Independence in Volcker Speech

• On March 21, the Federal Reserve released a pre-recorded video, where Powell received the "Paul Volcker Public Integrity Award," emphasizing that Volcker served under presidents from both parties, reflecting that "non-political, non-partisan service is the cornerstone of the Federal Reserve."
• The backdrop is external pressure from the White House on interest rate policy; Powell used this opportunity to subtly criticize political interference, highlighting that decision-making requires "courage and a long-term perspective."
• Market Impact: Strengthened investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's independence, alleviating recent uncertainties in interest rate speculation, and providing short-term support for the stability of risk asset pricing.

International Commodities

Trump Issues 48-Hour Ultimatum to Iran, Strait of Hormuz Becomes Global Energy Focus

• On March 21, Trump demanded Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face bombings of power plants; Iran responded firmly with four measures, including a complete blockade of the strait and attacks on facilities in countries hosting Israeli and U.S. military bases.
• Goldman Sachs warned: The market has only fully priced in the "inflation shock" and has not accounted for the "growth recession" caused by high energy costs; the last LNG shipments to the Persian Gulf will be cut off within 10 days, and Asian spot prices have doubled to $23.
• Market Impact: Risks of energy supply disruptions are pushing up oil and gas prices, putting pressure on global supply chains, providing short-term support for energy stocks but amplifying recession concerns.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Fell about 3.3%, latest reported at about $4,340 per ounce, continuing to pull back into the $4,300 range; safe-haven demand triggered by geopolitical tensions has quickly faded, combined with concerns about stagflation driven by high oil prices, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's hawkish path, significantly reducing the attractiveness of precious metals, with a weak oscillation after a sharp adjustment from high levels.
• Spot Silver: Fell about 3.8%, latest reported at about $65.50 per ounce, with greater volatility; high industrial demand is under dual pressure from expectations of global growth slowdown and supply chain disruptions, moving in sync with gold.
• WTI Crude Oil: Slightly down about 0.11%, latest reported at about $98.30 per barrel; while risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist, signals of easing during the ultimatum period have increased, partially alleviating supply concerns, with greater profit-taking pressure at high levels.
• Brent Crude Oil: Slightly down about 0.17%, latest reported at about $106.00 per barrel; the international benchmark is sensitive to Middle Eastern events, with energy costs remaining high but the rate of increase significantly narrowing.
• Dollar Index: Up 0.18%, latest reported at about 99.67; statements on Federal Reserve independence alleviated concerns about political interference, but inflation expectations support long-term yields, limiting downward space.

Core Drivers: Cinda Futures pointed out that the core of gold's movement currently lies in the re-constraint of interest rate expectations due to rising energy prices. As the Middle Eastern conflict continues, oil prices remain high, with Brent crude futures previously stabilizing above $100, significantly raising market concerns about inflation stickiness. Against this backdrop, market judgments on the path of inflation retreat have become cautious, further weakening pricing for interest rate cuts, driving the dollar to strengthen in the short term, which suppresses gold. Meanwhile, despite previously weak employment data, inflation expectations driven by energy are offsetting this bullish factor, making gold's financial attributes lean towards bearish in the short term. On the policy front, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, but the key lies in the forward guidance on the rate path, especially Powell's assessment of the impacts of inflation and geopolitical conflicts, which will directly affect the market's judgment on the pace of subsequent easing.

Cryptocurrency

• BTC: Down about 1.58% in 24H, latest reported at $67,850.
• ETH: Down about 1.73% in 24H, around $2,050.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Down about 1.5% in 24H, around $2.41 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24H about $333 million, with long positions liquidated about $241 million and short positions about $92 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $67,600, with significant reductions in long liquidations below, while a large number of short liquidations are clustered above $68,500 to $70,000, making it easier for a short squeeze to occur in the short term. If the price continues to stabilize above $67,000 and breaks above $68,500, it may trigger a short squeeze, pushing the rebound to expand.

Core Drivers: As Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran approaches its end, the market shifts to trading on the main line of "de-escalation of conflict" and partial alleviation of inflation concerns, leading to a pullback in high-beta risk assets; combined with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish rate path, continuous outflows from ETFs further suppress short-term sentiment. However, Bitcoin's dominance remains stable, with strong support still around $65,000 to $67,000. Investors need to closely monitor the situation after the ultimatum deadline, Federal Reserve statements, and signals of ETF flow direction changes.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 0.96% to 45,577.47 points, down for four consecutive weeks.
• S&P 500: Down 1.51% to 6,506.48 points, closing at the lowest since September 2025.
• Nasdaq: Down 2.01% to 21,647.61 points, with tech stocks leading the decline.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Down 3.28%, closing at $172.70, with visibility of AI agent and next-generation product orders exceeding $1 trillion, providing strong long-term fundamental support, alleviating some pullback pressure.
• Apple (AAPL): Down 0.39%, closing at $247.99, with defensive attributes standing out, performing relatively steadily amid a broad decline in tech stocks.
• Alphabet (GOOGL): Down 2.27%, closing at about $301.00, dragged down by overall risk appetite decline.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 1.84%, closing at $381.87, with cloud and AI business stable but unable to fully withstand sector sell-off.
• Amazon (AMZN): Down 1.62%, closing at $205.37, showing good resilience under dual drives of e-commerce and cloud services.
• Meta (META): Down 2.15%, closing at $593.66, with Zuckerberg advancing CEO-level AI agent projects, strengthening the narrative of AI applications.
• Tesla (TSLA): Down 3.24%, closing at $367.96, with Musk's TERAFAB chip factory plan boosting self-research capabilities and long-term ecological expectations.

Sector Movement Observation

Optical Communication Sector Leading Declines

• Representative Stock: Applied Optoelectronics down 14.11%
• Driving Factors: Geopolitical conflicts combined with supply chain concerns, leading to a decline in market risk appetite.

Storage Concept Stocks Collective Retreat

• Representative Stocks: SanDisk down 8.08%, Western Digital down 7.52%
• Driving Factors: Although AI demand is strong, short-term macro and geopolitical pressures dominate, with the market waiting for long-term confirmations.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. NVIDIA - Jensen Huang's Declaration for the Era of AI Agents

Event Overview: During GTC26, Jensen Huang announced that NVIDIA's order visibility has surpassed $1 trillion, marking AI's entry into the third inflection point—the era of AI agents, where each engineer will manage 100 agents, and tokens will become a new productivity tool. A $50 trillion physical AI blue ocean is waiting to be ignited. Market Interpretation: Institutions are generally optimistic about the explosive demand for computing power, with strong long-term growth certainty. Investment Insight: As AI shifts from models to agent applications, NVIDIA's core position is further consolidated, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities in the related industrial chain layout.

2. Tesla - Musk Officially Announces TERAFAB Super Chip Factory

Event Overview: On March 21, Musk announced the launch of the TERAFAB plan, with an annual production capacity target of 1 terawatt (50 times the current global capacity), 80% serving space missions, jointly led by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, regarded as the largest manufacturing project in history. Market Interpretation: Analysts view this as an important industrial endorsement for SpaceX's summer IPO and a $1.75 trillion valuation. Investment Insight: Enhanced chip self-sufficiency will accelerate AI + space synergy, providing long-term benefits for Tesla's ecological valuation expansion.

3. Micron Technology - Barclays Super Double Prediction

Event Overview: Micron's earnings report guidance exceeded expectations, with Barclays raising the target price to $675, predicting EPS will exceed $100 by 2027 (far exceeding the market consensus of $54), driven by AI igniting HBM demand and supply shortages. Market Interpretation: The memory cycle is undergoing an epic revaluation, with significant improvements in gross margin and cash flow. Investment Insight: HBM and storage long-term mechanisms will become key catalysts, and it is recommended to pay attention to the configuration value at the cycle inflection point.

4. Amazon - Secretly Developing AI Smartphones

Event Overview: Insiders revealed that Amazon is secretly developing smartphones, aiming to reshape app store rules with AI. Market Interpretation: Major cloud companies are shifting towards consumer end layouts, strengthening the ecological closed loop. Investment Insight: The trend of AI hardware acceleration is expected to open new growth space for Amazon in the smartphone sector.

5. Xpeng Motors - IRON Humanoid Robot Mass Production Plan

Event Overview: Xpeng Chairman He Xiaopeng announced that the IRON robot will enter mass production by the end of 2026, with a monthly production capacity target of over a thousand units, equipped with three Turing AI chips; Q4 will turn profitable for the first time, with gross margin reaching a historical high. Market Interpretation: The dual drive of humanoid robots and intelligent driving presents a clear differentiated profit path. Investment Insight: With AI vehicles going global and L4 mass production imminent, attention should be paid to the valuation re-evaluation brought by technological realization.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. According to CoinDesk analysis, as the pressure from scalability issues, quantum technology, and artificial intelligence increases, Ethereum faces a critical moment in its high-risk balancing strategy. In the first three months of 2026, the Ethereum ecosystem faces multiple structural pressures, with Vitalik Buterin sharply criticizing the Layer 2 scaling path at the beginning of the year, pointing out that many Rollup designs rely on centralized components and isolated environments, failing to inherit the security guarantees of the mainnet, leading to ecological fragmentation and inconsistent security assumptions. Meanwhile, the Ethereum Foundation has included resistance to quantum computing threats in its recent plans, advancing research on LeanVM and post-quantum signature schemes. Internally, Tomasz Stańczak, co-executive director of the Ethereum Foundation, has left after about a year in office, a change seen as a signal of the foundation's internal re-prioritization. Additionally, the foundation is accelerating its layout in decentralized AI research, attempting to position Ethereum as the "trust layer" for AI systems, used for output verification, agent coordination, and supporting machine-to-machine economic activities.

2. NYSE Arca and NYSE American, subsidiaries of the New York Stock Exchange, have submitted rule changes to the SEC to cancel the 25,000 contract holdings and exercise limits for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF options. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) waived the standard 30-day waiting period for these two documents, allowing the changes to take effect immediately upon submission, marking that all major U.S. options exchanges have completed this adjustment.

3. Yesterday, Strategy founder Michael Saylor released more information related to Bitcoin Tracker, stating: "The Orange March Continues." According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses information about increasing Bitcoin holdings the day after relevant news is released.

4. Data: Tokens such as H, XPL, and JUP will see large unlocks this week, with H unlocking valued at approximately $10.2 million.

5. According to Coindesk reports, data shows that Bitcoin mining economics are under increasing pressure, with the current average production cost per coin around $88,000, while the Bitcoin price is about $69,200, meaning miners are losing nearly $19,000 per BTC, overall in about a 21% loss state. Meanwhile, the overall mining difficulty has decreased by about 7.8%, marking the second-largest drop in 2026, reflecting the exit of computing power and rising network pressure, with the hash rate falling back to about 920 EH/s, and the average block time extending to over 12 minutes.

Analysis suggests that rising energy prices combined with tensions in the Middle East further push up mining costs, with electricity costs continuing to be under pressure. If miners are forced to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations, it may create additional selling pressure on the market. If Bitcoin prices remain below the cost line and difficulty continues to decrease, the clearing process for miners may continue, putting pressure on the spot market structure in the short term.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• Event: Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum deadline expires - Focus on the recovery of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and tanker dynamics.

Institutional Views:

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, among other investment banks, have pointed out in their latest research reports that as the Middle Eastern conflict enters its third week, if oil prices remain high (Brent may break historical records), global GDP growth may be dragged down by 0.6% in the first half; the market is currently only trading on "inflation" and has not priced in "recession" risks, suggesting a shift towards defensive allocations. Gold may gain a 5-10% risk premium in the short term, but still faces selling pressure before QE expectations materialize. Cryptocurrencies and tech stocks are under short-term pressure, but the long-term logic of AI agents and chip self-sufficiency remains unchanged, with institutions maintaining a structurally bullish outlook, focusing on signals of geopolitical easing and the Federal Reserve's statements on independence to boost risk appetite. Overall, short-term volatility is increasing, while the dual main lines of energy and AI still hold allocation value in the medium to long term.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and is not intended as any investment advice.