Bitget UEX Daily Report | Iran confirms the death of Larijani; "Wooden Sister" is bullish on AI; Micron stock hits new high before the announcement (March 18, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Middle East Conflict Strengthens Federal Reserve's "Wait and See" Consensus

• Nick Timiraos from the "New Federal Reserve News Agency" pointed out that the escalation of the Middle East situation has led to a strong consensus on maintaining interest rates unchanged this week, shifting the focus from "when to cut rates" to "whether to cut rates."
• The three main observation windows are the wording of the policy statement, the dot plot forecast, and Powell's press conference.
• Market Impact: Hawkish signals will directly suppress rate cut expectations, increase volatility in risk assets, and enhance the attractiveness of the dollar.

International Commodities

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Oil Prices to Maintain High Volatility

• Brent crude oil is reported at $103.05 per barrel, WTI crude oil at $94.78 per barrel, with oil prices under upward pressure amid ongoing Middle East conflicts.
• The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending March 13 will be released today at 22:30.
• Market Impact: Changes in inventory may further amplify oil price volatility, combined with supply chain disruption risks, potentially exacerbating global inflationary pressures and affecting the performance of the energy sector.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump Considers Exiting NATO, Iran's Strikes Accelerate

• Trump stated that he could decide to exit NATO without Congress, expressing dissatisfaction with the current situation; Iran confirmed the death of Larijani, stating that strikes are accelerating and has designated replacements for key positions; the Israeli military threatens to hunt down the new leader.
• The EU has restarted the approval process for the trade agreement with the U.S., with the European Parliament's Trade Committee voting on Thursday, which, if passed, will ease transatlantic tensions.
• Market Impact: Geopolitical uncertainty combined with signals of trade easing may support safe-haven assets, while high oil prices may force the Federal Reserve to maintain a higher interest rate path.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Slightly up 0.17%, reported at approximately $5,014 per ounce, continuing to oscillate at high levels, supported by geopolitical risks.
• Spot Silver: Slightly up 0.85%, reported at approximately $79.97 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Down 1.34%, reported at $94.27 per barrel, driven by geopolitical conflicts but adjusted at high levels due to inventory expectations.
• Brent Crude Oil: Down 0.81%, reported at $102.6 per barrel, similarly affected by Middle East supply disruptions but under pressure during the day.
• Dollar Index: Slightly up 0.04%, reported at 99.599, fluctuating narrowly amid a balance between safe-haven demand and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Down 1.54% in 24H, currently around $73,800, continuing to oscillate at high levels, supported by institutional inflows but experiencing short-term corrections.
• ETH: Down 1.13% in 24H, currently around $2,321, adjusting with the market, with network upgrade expectations providing support.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Down 1.13% in 24H, total market cap approximately $2.61 trillion, relatively resilient under geopolitical risks.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24H approximately $256 million, with long positions liquidated around $135 million and short positions around $121 million.

• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $73,800, with a dense long liquidation zone in the range of $72,500--$74,000; if it falls back to this area, it may trigger a chain liquidation of long positions and increase downward pressure. A large short liquidation zone is concentrated at $75,000--$77,000; if the price breaks through this range, it may trigger a short squeeze and push the market further up.
• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $30 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of $10 million yesterday.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday saw an inflow of $2.83 billion, outflow of $2.928 billion, with a net inflow of $237 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 0.10%, reported at approximately 46,993, rising for two consecutive days, with defensive sectors (such as utilities and finance) providing main support, overall fluctuating narrowly in the 46,900-47,000 range, indicating investors' preference for value stocks amid risk aversion.
• S&P 500: Up 0.18%~0.25%, reported at approximately 6,716, with movements in the energy sector (supported by high oil prices) driving moderate overall gains, but technology and growth stocks showed divergence, with the index stabilizing above 6,700, reflecting a cautious balance regarding inflation and interest rate paths.
• Nasdaq: Up 0.47%, reported at approximately 22,479, with divergence in tech stocks but rebounds in AI themes and some cloud service stocks providing momentum, the index rebounding in the 22,400-22,500 range, benefiting from institutional allocations to AI infrastructure, despite short-term volatility from geopolitical risks.

These performances continue the recent pattern of rotation between defensive and cyclical stocks, with the Dow and S&P showing relative stability, while the Nasdaq remains resilient amid tech divergence. Short-term focus is on FOMC meeting signals; if hawkish statements strengthen, the index may face correction pressure.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Down 0.69%, closed at $181.93, supported by progress in AI platforms and analyst buy ratings, but overall tech sector pressure triggered profit-taking.
• Google (GOOGL): Up 1.75%, closed at $310.92, optimistic growth expectations in AI and cloud service competition drove stock price rebound.
• Apple (AAPL): Up 0.56%, closed at $254.23, new product launches and service ecosystem expansion stabilize expectations, alleviating supply chain concerns.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 0.14%, closed at $399.41, cybersecurity incidents and weak guidance raised concerns, but AI investments maintain long-term growth potential.
• Amazon (AMZN): Up 1.63%, closed at $215.20, AWS AI sales forecasts and logistics optimization measures boosted market confidence.
• Meta (META): Down 0.76%, closed at $622.66, with metaverse adjustments and robust advertising business coexisting, but short-term market divergence intensified pressure.
• Tesla (TSLA): Up 0.94%, closed at $399.27, supported by battery factory collaborations and autonomous driving prospects.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concept Stocks Up Over 5%

• Representative stocks: Western Digital up 9.64%, Seagate Technology up 5.59%, Micron Technology up 4.5% closing at $461.69, hitting a historical high.
• Driving factors: Continuous demand from AI data centers, with profit-taking before earnings and optimistic sentiment coexisting.

Chinese Concept Stocks Diverging

• Representative stocks: Bilibili up 4.45%, Tencent Music down 24.65%.
• Driving factors: Sector rotation and differences in individual stock earnings expectations.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. NVIDIA - CEO Jensen Huang Significantly Raises AI Revenue Outlook

Event Overview: At the GTC 2026 keynote on March 17, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang significantly raised demand expectations, announcing that sales of Blackwell and Vera Rubin AI acceleration chips are expected to reach at least $1 trillion by 2027 (previously forecasted at only $500 billion for 2026). This figure only covers the core AI chip product line and does not include other businesses such as Vera CPUs and storage systems, indicating that the group's overall revenue is expected to significantly exceed this level. He also revealed plans to increase shareholder returns in the second half of the year, intending to use about 50% of free cash flow for stock buybacks and dividends. Market Interpretation: Institutions like Goldman Sachs and Bernstein believe this statement strongly addresses market concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, with demand "far exceeding expectations," further solidifying NVIDIA's leading position in AI infrastructure and significantly enhancing clarity on long-term growth paths, likely pushing up the valuation center. Investment Insight: The construction of AI data centers is still in the early explosive stage; investors should focus on the actual implementation of buyback and dividend policies in the second half of the year, which can directly support EPS and provide additional valuation buffers in a high-interest-rate environment; simultaneously, track the pace of capacity delivery to assess the fulfillment capability of trillion-dollar orders.

2. Apple - Cook Strongly Denies Retirement Rumors

Event Overview: Apple CEO Tim Cook explicitly refuted speculation about his imminent retirement during an interview with Good Morning America on March 17, emphasizing, "I never said that; it's just a rumor," and stated that he has worked at Apple for 28 years and "cannot imagine life without Apple." This statement comes at a sensitive time during the company's 50th anniversary celebration and senior personnel adjustments, injecting a crucial stability signal into the market. Market Interpretation: Analysts from Morgan Stanley and others view this as a positive signal, believing that continuity in leadership helps alleviate investor concerns about management turmoil, especially at a critical juncture for Apple Intelligence, which is beneficial for stabilizing market confidence in the long-term AI strategy and service ecosystem. Investment Insight: Stability at the top will serve as a moat for Apple to navigate macro fluctuations; investors should continue to track the pace of AI hardware application implementation and the growth performance of service businesses, as these two sectors are expected to become the main revenue drivers in the coming years.

3. Meta - Metaverse Strategy Further Shrinks

Event Overview: Meta announced that Quest headset users will no longer have access to the Horizon Worlds virtual space, while shifting the platform's focus to mobile, marking a significant new round of contraction in Zuckerberg's former metaverse vision. The company is gradually reducing aggressive investments in VR hardware, focusing instead on core advertising business and AI application development. Market Interpretation: Evercore ISI and several Wall Street investment banks believe this is a rational and pragmatic adjustment; concentrating resources in high-return areas amid ongoing losses in Reality Labs will help improve profitability and capital allocation efficiency, enhancing investor recognition of the company's overall operational quality. Investment Insight: In the short term, cost control and profit release will support the stock price; in the long term, it is necessary to observe whether new commercialization application scenarios for VR/AR emerge; otherwise, related investments may still become a drag on valuation.

4. Micron Technology - Stock Price Hits Historical High Awaiting Earnings

Event Overview: Micron Technology's stock price surged 4.5% during the session, reaching a high of $461.69, setting a new historical record, with a cumulative increase of 61.33% this year. The company will announce its latest quarterly earnings after the market closes today, with the market highly focused on the performance of its HBM and DRAM businesses under AI server demand. Market Interpretation: Several investment banks have raised their target prices, believing that strong demand for high-performance memory from AI data centers is driving the storage industry into an upward cycle. Micron's HBM capacity for 2026 is nearly sold out, and improvements in market share and gross margins will drive valuation reconstruction. Investment Insight: If tonight's earnings exceed expectations and guidance is raised, it will catalyze a new round of rotation in the storage sector; investors need to closely track the progress of HBM capacity expansion, pricing trends, and supply-demand dynamics, as these will be key variables determining whether Micron can maintain a high valuation level.

5. Amazon - AWS AI Sales Forecast Doubles

Event Overview: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy predicted during an internal all-hands meeting that AI will drive AWS annual sales to reach $600 billion by 2036 (doubling the previous expectation of $300 billion) and explained that the massive capital expenditures are entirely driven by clear and strong customer demand signals, which can be quickly monetized once AI capacity goes live. Market Interpretation: Institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are optimistic about this long-term outlook, believing that Amazon is firmly grasping the wave of AI cloud infrastructure, with the capital expenditure return cycle expected to shorten, further expanding AWS's competitiveness, making it the company's main profit engine for the next decade. Investment Insight: AWS's AI monetization capability will become the core driver of Amazon's valuation reassessment; it is recommended to continue monitoring the increase in the revenue share of cloud business and the execution efficiency of capital expenditures, as long-term layouts have significant advantages and are expected to bring sustained profit flexibility.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. The U.S. SEC and CFTC jointly released a 68-page cryptocurrency guidance document, clarifying that most digital assets do not fall under securities, covering stablecoins, digital commodity classifications, and applicable rules for mining, staking, and airdrops, providing a clear regulatory framework for the industry.

2. Eight hours ago, BlackRock withdrew 2,449 BTC from Coinbase. Over the past two days, they have withdrawn 6,167 BTC from Coinbase and deposited 2,267 BTC.

3. Yesterday, Bitwise Solana Staking ETF saw a net inflow of $17.81 million in a single day. Currently, the historical total net inflow of the SOL spot ETF has reached $803 million. As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of the SOL spot ETF is $937 million, with a net asset ratio of 1.73%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $989 million.

4. CryptoQuant: Despite bullish signals in the derivatives market for Bitcoin, such as increased bullish positions, positive funding rates, and dominant buy orders before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, if the upward trend continues, Bitcoin may face resistance in the range of $75,000 to $85,000.

5. Circle has minted an additional 500 million USDC on Solana, bringing the total amount of USDC minted on the Solana chain to $28.5 billion in 2026.

6. According to Kaiko, the market share of U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges in the spot market has risen from 8% to 15% over the past year, with on-chain liquidity for BTC deeper and growing faster than many offshore platforms. Kaiko believes that improved institutional access, ETF demand, and enhanced compliance, transparency, and operational resilience are the main reasons for the share returning to the U.S. market.

7. The Based Foundation announced that the Based community token $BASED will have its TGE (Token Generation Event) on March 30.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

March 18 (Wednesday)

1. U.S. February PPI data release;
2. Micron Technology announces its latest quarterly earnings, with the market focusing on clues regarding the storage chip cycle, serving as a barometer for the semiconductor cycle.

March 19 (Thursday)

1. The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, expected to maintain rates unchanged;
2. However, the dot plot may indicate only one rate cut within the year, significantly narrowing previous market expectations;
3. Lululemon announces its latest quarterly earnings.

March 20 (Friday)

1. FedEx announces its latest quarterly earnings.

This week's core themes in the U.S. stock market revolve around the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, economic data releases, earnings reports from companies like Micron, and NVIDIA's GTC conference, with expectations of increased market volatility.

Institutional Views:

Wall Street analysts generally point out that the Iran conflict entering its third week is keeping Brent crude oil above $103, reshaping the inflation path. The Federal Reserve's meeting on March 17-18 is expected to maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% and may revise the dot plot for 2026 forecasts, shifting the focus from "when to cut rates" to "whether to cut rates." Despite market pressure, Bitcoin has slightly risen 0.5% to around $74,000 within 24 hours, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5% since the outbreak of the conflict, outperforming gold (flat) and the S&P 500 (down 0.2%), benefiting from ETF net inflows and the new SEC/CFTC guidance. Goldman Sachs and Bernstein strategists emphasize that BTC is transitioning from a risk asset to "digital gold," with geopolitical uncertainty reinforcing its safe-haven status; the energy sector is expected to benefit from high oil prices, while tech stocks face valuation corrections. Short-term volatility is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to FOMC signals and EIA inventory data; if oil prices remain high, precious metals and cryptocurrencies will still have support, while U.S. stocks may continue to diverge.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.