TD Cowen: The review window for the US cryptocurrency bill may be extended to the August recess, and if not passed, it may be postponed until 2027

According to The Block, investment bank TD Cowen stated that the time window for the U.S. to pass the crypto market structure bill may extend to the August recess, breaking the previous expectation that legislation needed to be completed before the Easter recess.

Jaret Seiberg, managing director of TD Cowen's Washington research team, pointed out that the Easter recess is not a critical milestone, and legislative work can continue before and after the recess. With the primaries concluding, some lawmakers will have greater flexibility to negotiate. Seiberg believes that the August recess is the last meaningful legislative window, as Congress will only meet for 12 days in September and 2 days in October, which is only enough time to handle spending bills and defense authorization bills. He also reiterated that if control of Congress changes after the 2026 midterm elections, the bill may be delayed until 2027. The House is expected to potentially shift to Democratic control, at which point the Democrats may choose to delay until 2027 to gain more leverage. Currently, the crypto bill is stalled due to opposition from the banking sector regarding stablecoin yields and the Democrats' push for conflict of interest provisions for government officials, but negotiations between both sides are reportedly close to reaching a compromise. Seiberg stated that if the bill does not pass in 2026, the SEC will provide the regulatory actions needed for the crypto industry.