The latest polls show a decline in Trump's approval rating, and the market should pay attention to the risks of the midterm elections

According to a report by Jinshi, the latest NBC poll shows that Trump's support among registered voters has decreased by 3 percentage points from 47% in March 2025 to 44%, with disapproval rising to 54%. The average of Decision Desk HQ polls also shows similar results: 43.1% approval and 54.4% disapproval.

Investinglive analyst Adam Button stated that the key for the market lies in the situation of the midterm elections. Trump himself has pointed out this risk, noting that historical patterns show that the party in the White House typically faces setbacks in midterm elections. If the Republican Party loses seats in Congress, it will reshape the legislative landscape regarding tax policy, tariffs, and deregulation, while current stock valuations have to some extent already priced in expectations for these policies.

The big question ahead is whether Trump will begin to face internal pressure to quickly end the war. Republicans have certainly acknowledged that they will lose the House of Representatives, and as the Middle Eastern war diminishes some of their voter base, the control of the Senate becomes increasingly uncertain.