Analysis: The Bitcoin derivatives market has entered a "deleveraging wave," with spot demand and whale accumulation supporting price resilience

According to the Bitfinex analysis report, Bitcoin has recently shown unexpected resilience, with the current derivatives market entering a "deleveraging wave." Speculative bubbles have almost completely dissipated, and the Leverage Reset Index (LRI) has fallen to a multi-year low of 0.32, indicating that price discovery is driven by spot demand rather than derivatives leverage.

Additionally, retail investors holding less than 10 BTC have continued to net sell over the past 30 days, while whales holding more than 1,000 BTC have increased their holdings by about 8% since the peak in October last year. The implied volatility of Bitcoin options at-the-money is around 47%, down from 100% during the 2022 bear market. Short-term options premiums are slightly higher than long-term options, indicating that the market is pricing in recent uncertainties, but the long-term outlook remains relatively constructive. Overall, the Bitcoin market is transitioning from a leverage-driven correction to a high-confidence mean reversion phase dominated by macro liquidity, with prices potentially forming a stable rebound supported by spot demand and institutional accumulation.